瓦城 2729 多 - 股票
By Cara
at 2020-03-27T11:34
at 2020-03-27T11:34
Table of Contents
1. 標的：瓦城 2729
2. 分類：多
3. 分析/正文：
受到最近疫情影響 餐飲業的業績大幅衰退 瓦城股價也從19年7月高點333跌到上週最低16
7.5
甚至比當時2013年下半年餐飲業食安危機時更低，當時瓦城的月營收僅約1.8億到2.5億左
右，而2020二月營收即便衰退38% 仍有超過3億的水準，甚至一月因過年旺季創下單月5.4
6億的歷史新高。
https://i.imgur.com/imuyaw8.jpg
即便疫情帶來不確定性，只要營收能維持在每月3億上下的水準，依照過往單季營收在9億
上下，EPS約能在單季3塊左右，全年10塊以上保底。
https://i.imgur.com/fhUHd1A.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/eB7B8Oi.jpg
參考瓦城的本益比河流圖，長期以來幾乎都在16倍以上，前述EPS至少保底10塊，
除非疫情全面失控，否則推估上周167.5已經是長線的大底。
https://i.imgur.com/JAFWOKK.jpg
加上2019前三季EPS已達13.49，照歷史經驗第四季EPS較差，全年應該在15.5左右，配息
估13-14左右，殖利率7%以上。
https://i.imgur.com/KYQavHq.jpg
4. 進退場機制：(非長期投資者，必須有停損機制)
已進場，當做穩定配息標的
長期投資不停損
--
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