理想的年金 - 投資
By Agatha
at 2021-02-19T21:14
at 2021-02-19T21:14
Table of Contents
關於退休金,有很多關於 Safe Withdrawal Rate的討論
4% rule是否撐得過30、40、50年等等
這個問題有一個理論上的理想解答,年金。
但什麼樣的年金是理想的年金?
單就longevity risk而言
應該是根據通膨調整的、無保證期的延期終身年金
年金所主要處理的風險,是longevity risk。
而年金能夠比其他解決方案更有優勢的,是能夠pooling longevity risk。
如果個人以股債配置來應對longevity risk
每個人都要預想活到90歲甚至100歲時該怎麼辦
然而,按第十回生命表,100個65歲的人,可能只有不到3成能活到90歲。
如果把所有人的錢pooling起來付給活得比較久的人
就可以用較少的錢解決longevity risk的問題
以65歲有28.6%能活到90歲計
一份65歲繳費,90歲才開始給付的年金即使不做任何投資
也隱含 5.13% 的年化報酬率 ( (1/0.286)^(1/25)=1.0513 )
適當投資的話,回報率會更高
但如果年金有保證期,死後還要繼續領錢,pooling的效果就會降低
反過來說
把一群不太會死的人pooling起來是沒什麼意義的
把一群40歲的人pooling起來,活到60歲的機率是92%
20年間,隱含的年化報酬率僅 0.4%
===============
當然啦
一份65歲繳費,90歲才開始給付的年金保險
在銷售上應該會很不容易
不過我覺得政府要年金改革的話
這個方向才是年金的本質
65歲退休的人先以積蓄為生
經過十年或二十年,積蓄減少之後
開始可以領年金,保障活太久的風險
但再怎麼看
這個想法在選票上應該也不太受歡迎就是了
--
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser, And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."
now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin' Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
--
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