澳洲央行RBA維持現金利率於4.75%不變！ - 理財

利率不變～

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Ref. http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2011/mr-11-21.html

Media Release

Number 2011-21
Date 4 October 2011
Embargo For Immediate Release

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at
4.75 per cent.

Conditions in global financial markets have continued to be very unsettled,
with uncertainty increasing about both the prospects for resolution of the
sovereign debt and banking problems in Europe, and the outlook for global
economic growth. While temporary impediments that had contributed to a
slowing in growth in some countries over recent months are lessening, recent
data suggest a continuing period of soft economic conditions in both Europe
and the United States. Moreover, the uncertainty and financial volatility
have reduced confidence, which could result in more cautious behaviour by
firms and households in major countries.

It will take more time for evidence of any effects of the recent European and
US financial turbulence on economic activity in other regions to emerge. Thus
far, indications are that economic activity is continuing to expand in China
and most of Asia. Nonetheless, recent events have led forecasters to reduce
their estimates for global GDP growth, which is now expected to be about
average this year and next. Prices for commodities have declined over recent
weeks, though in general they remain high.

Australia's terms of trade are very high, which has increased national income
considerably. Investment in the resources sector is picking up very strongly
and some related service sectors are enjoying better than average conditions.
In other sectors, cautious behaviour by households and the earlier rise in
the exchange rate have had a noticeable dampening effect. The impetus from
earlier Australian Government spending programs is now also abating, as had
been intended. While there remain good reasons to expect solid growth over
the medium term, the indications are that the pace of near-term growth is
unlikely to be as strong as earlier expected, due both to local and global
factors, including the financial turmoil and related effects on business
confidence.

Underlying inflation stopped falling and began to increase earlier this year.
The Board has been concerned about the prospect of a further pick-up over the
period ahead, but over recent months has been weighing the question of
whether a period of weaker than expected conditions would contain that
pick-up in inflation. Recently revised data show a pick-up to date in the
underlying pace of price rises that was less sharp than initially indicated.
Moreover, with labour market conditions now a little softer and households
more concerned about the possibility of unemployment rising, the likelihood
of a significant acceleration in labour costs outside the resources and
related sectors is lessening.

Taking into account all the recent information, the path for inflation may
now be more consistent with the 2–3 per cent target in 2012 and 2013,
abstracting from the impact of the carbon pricing scheme. This assessment
will be reviewed on receipt of further data on prices ahead of the Board's
next meeting. An improved inflation outlook would increase the scope for
monetary policy to provide some support to demand, should that prove
necessary.

The Board noted that financial conditions have been easing somewhat, with
interest rates for some housing and business loans declining slightly due to
increased competition and the fall in some funding costs in financial
markets. The exchange rate has also declined from the very high levels of a
few months ago. Credit growth remains low, however, and asset prices have
declined.

At today's meeting the Board judged the current cash rate remained
appropriate. As always, the Board will continue to assess carefully the
evolving outlook for growth and inflation.

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Enquiries:
Dr Philip Lowe
Assistant Governor (Economic)
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY
Phone: +61 2 9551 8800

Dr Guy Debelle
Assistant Governor (Financial Markets)
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY
Phone: +61 2 9551 8200

Media Office
Information Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY
Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
E-mail: [email protected]

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