油價泡沬 - 經濟

By Sarah
at 2008-06-16T00:03
at 2008-06-16T00:03
Table of Contents
※ 引述《sikaly (最近事情真多)》之銘言:
: ※ 引述《Roosevelt (Jay)》之銘言:
: : 想問一下這個問題
: : 大家都說油價是被炒起來的
: : 那如果這個投機的泡沫被戳破了
: : 全球股市 經濟會??
: : 油價崩對人民不是比較好嗎 XD
: : 還是經濟會轉蕭條
: 如果油價緩跌,大概對經濟是好的
: 但是如果看到的事油價崩跌(好比說從近140快速跌到80~90)
: 你大概會看到全球股市跟著崩跌
: 因為這可能代表支撐全球經濟的新興市場將大幅衰退
: 金融業也很容易有危險,因為大概會有幾個避險基金倒掉
: 至於油價是不是被炒起來的,我是持懷疑的態度
: 政府找不到原油上漲的主因,只好牽拖投機炒作
: 但是仔細去看各商品市場,沒有期貨可以炒作的鐵礦砂、米價上漲幅度更驚人
: 只能說商品市場這幾年就是多頭,背後的原因當然就是供需不平衡
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11454989
其中一段蠻有趣的:
The truth is more prosaic. Finding and developing new oil fields is an
expensive and time-consuming business. The giant new fields in the deep water
off Brazil are unlikely to produce oil for a decade or more. Furthermore, oil
is perverse. When prices are low, oil-rich countries welcome the low-cost,
high-tech and well-capitalised oil firms. When prices are high, countries
like Russia and Venezuela kick them out again. Likewise the engineers, survey
ships and seismic rigs that oil firms need to find and produce new deposits
are expensive right now. The costs of finding oil have, temporarily, doubled
precisely because everybody wants to give them work.
--
: ※ 引述《Roosevelt (Jay)》之銘言:
: : 想問一下這個問題
: : 大家都說油價是被炒起來的
: : 那如果這個投機的泡沫被戳破了
: : 全球股市 經濟會??
: : 油價崩對人民不是比較好嗎 XD
: : 還是經濟會轉蕭條
: 如果油價緩跌,大概對經濟是好的
: 但是如果看到的事油價崩跌(好比說從近140快速跌到80~90)
: 你大概會看到全球股市跟著崩跌
: 因為這可能代表支撐全球經濟的新興市場將大幅衰退
: 金融業也很容易有危險,因為大概會有幾個避險基金倒掉
: 至於油價是不是被炒起來的,我是持懷疑的態度
: 政府找不到原油上漲的主因,只好牽拖投機炒作
: 但是仔細去看各商品市場,沒有期貨可以炒作的鐵礦砂、米價上漲幅度更驚人
: 只能說商品市場這幾年就是多頭,背後的原因當然就是供需不平衡
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11454989
其中一段蠻有趣的:
The truth is more prosaic. Finding and developing new oil fields is an
expensive and time-consuming business. The giant new fields in the deep water
off Brazil are unlikely to produce oil for a decade or more. Furthermore, oil
is perverse. When prices are low, oil-rich countries welcome the low-cost,
high-tech and well-capitalised oil firms. When prices are high, countries
like Russia and Venezuela kick them out again. Likewise the engineers, survey
ships and seismic rigs that oil firms need to find and produce new deposits
are expensive right now. The costs of finding oil have, temporarily, doubled
precisely because everybody wants to give them work.
--
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