欣興 多 - 股票
By Elma
at 2020-12-19T06:41
at 2020-12-19T06:41
Table of Contents
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.發文前請先詳閱[標的]分類發文規範,未依規範發文將受處份。
2.發標的文未充實內文,多空理由不充實者,板規1-1-5或4-4處份
3.進退場機制若非長期投資,請輸入停損價,否則依板規1-1-6處份
4.若為長期投資,但無充份分析理由,將依板規1-1-5處份
4.請依格式輸入內容,未依格式者板規1-1-2砍文處份。
5.分類選填請益或心得者,進退場機制得刪去。
---------------------按ctrl+y可刪除以上內容。----------------------------
1. 標的: (例 2330 台積電)
3037 欣興
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得
多
3. 分析/正文:
基本面
1.ABF供需失衡持續,無論從產業面以及法人報告都可得出供需失衡至少到2022年底,
非短期可解決。
2.供需失衡主因為技術發展持續朝向多層數/大面積,導致良率遠低於原先產品。
因此各大廠持續擴廠,依然無法滿足客戶需求。
3.除台灣兩大廠滿單,日本大廠Ibiden(日系法人TP6000)與Shinko(日系法人TP3700)
也是滿單。
4.近期半導體大廠陸續出現缺機版的新聞。預估明年由於供需缺口無法解決,會有國際
大廠因為ABF基板缺貨導致營收無法增長。
籌碼面
1.外資從失火前到失火後持續加碼。而投信則是大舉賣出,看股價往北,目前小量回補。
2.比價效應 - 同是台灣ABF大廠南電早已突破前波新高,股價超越欣興100%,因為南電
相對位置較高,法人可能出現賣南電買欣興的籌碼轉換。
市值
1.以目前欣興ABF產業地位,唯一與國際美系/台系/中系各大廠技術緊密合作與生產,
並且ABF產能擴廠後為世界最大,估市值應世界第一。
2.Ibiden目前市值約為2100億台幣幣,欣興目標市值至少為2100億台幣,股價為140。
4. 進退場機制:(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制。請益免填)
目標價140(市值超越Ibiden)
停損70
By 小小分析師 六
--
1.發文前請先詳閱[標的]分類發文規範,未依規範發文將受處份。
2.發標的文未充實內文,多空理由不充實者,板規1-1-5或4-4處份
3.進退場機制若非長期投資,請輸入停損價,否則依板規1-1-6處份
4.若為長期投資,但無充份分析理由,將依板規1-1-5處份
4.請依格式輸入內容,未依格式者板規1-1-2砍文處份。
5.分類選填請益或心得者,進退場機制得刪去。
---------------------按ctrl+y可刪除以上內容。----------------------------
1. 標的: (例 2330 台積電)
3037 欣興
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得
多
3. 分析/正文:
基本面
1.ABF供需失衡持續,無論從產業面以及法人報告都可得出供需失衡至少到2022年底,
非短期可解決。
2.供需失衡主因為技術發展持續朝向多層數/大面積,導致良率遠低於原先產品。
因此各大廠持續擴廠,依然無法滿足客戶需求。
3.除台灣兩大廠滿單,日本大廠Ibiden(日系法人TP6000)與Shinko(日系法人TP3700)
也是滿單。
4.近期半導體大廠陸續出現缺機版的新聞。預估明年由於供需缺口無法解決,會有國際
大廠因為ABF基板缺貨導致營收無法增長。
籌碼面
1.外資從失火前到失火後持續加碼。而投信則是大舉賣出,看股價往北,目前小量回補。
2.比價效應 - 同是台灣ABF大廠南電早已突破前波新高,股價超越欣興100%,因為南電
相對位置較高,法人可能出現賣南電買欣興的籌碼轉換。
市值
1.以目前欣興ABF產業地位,唯一與國際美系/台系/中系各大廠技術緊密合作與生產,
並且ABF產能擴廠後為世界最大,估市值應世界第一。
2.Ibiden目前市值約為2100億台幣幣,欣興目標市值至少為2100億台幣,股價為140。
4. 進退場機制:(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制。請益免填)
目標價140(市值超越Ibiden)
停損70
By 小小分析師 六
--
Tags:
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