次級房貸 - 經濟

By Jacky
at 2009-06-12T12:16
at 2009-06-12T12:16
Table of Contents
※ 引述《pulover (我出布!我贏了)》之銘言:
: → yuekun:就不是很單純的op (請回想BS對債權的假設) 114.44.191.194 06/12 09:16
: → dos792:我建議y大先去找本教科書看看再說 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:47
: → dos792:lehman倒不是因為做連動債作到倒,是因其 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:49
: → dos792:玩cdo玩到倒。連動債的部門可賺錢的呢 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:50
: → dos792:如果硬要說不獨立,我可以說我每次大便出來 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:52
: → dos792:的溫度跟台股當天漲跌都是非0correlation 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:53
: → dos792:但這有任何義意嗎? 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:54
我是說經濟理論上的獨立 我不想扯太多
: → dos792:我只單純問你cash flow cdo怎麼hedge, 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:55
用CDS hedge 我不是你老師 沒必要回答太詳細 但你可以去看資產證券化的書
當credit event發生時 你的CDO拿不到錢 但是可以從保險公司(AIG)拿到CDS的賠償
(還有 不要再問我 如果這是討論 我沒太多義務回答你)
: → dos792:和一般option(or warrant)的hedge 差在那 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:55
: → dos792:你很快就會發現cdo portfolio本身就賭很大 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:56
基本上投資銀行要發行衍生物 一定是用風險中立評價
Risk Pool則留在保險公司 保險公司有他定價的模式(大數法則之類的)
投資銀行先打兩隻腳 一隻浮動端 一隻固定端 股權衍生物也是一樣 只是比較單純
所以cdo portfolio本身就「賭很大」這句話瑕疵很大
投資銀行一定是賺arbitrage的利差 他不會笨到曝險
1.
如果一檔連動債有包到信用衍生物 在Risk event本來就有直接關聯
2.
如果只是單純的連動債 我個人認為option的假設也不是很完美
尤其連結到Libor去的東西 本來就不是risk-free
再加上保證機構還有倒閉風險 怎麼會說bond端是無風險呢 Lehman不就倒給你看了
既然option的假設有瑕疵 本來就會有一些credit spread滲漏進你組合的東西裡面
相同的股價 (不同的信用風險下) 你的put價格可能會有一些差異 (call也是)
例如A公司的put在金融危機 和 無金融危機
即使BS的參數都相同 但option價格不太相同
BS沒納入信用風險的參數 所以信用風險老早就滲入你的資產組合
ps: 我不清楚Lehman的東西結構到底多複雜 但是倒閉時SPV只剩下1/3的價值
不像是風險中立下會發生的情況
: → washburn:兩位, 別推文了. 回文吧! 118.231.26.217 06/12 11:31
ok!
: 推 yuekun:我本來想推個幾句而已的 沒想到越推越多 114.44.191.194 06/12 11:35
--
※ 編輯: yuekun 來自: 114.44.191.194 (06/12 12:30)
: → yuekun:就不是很單純的op (請回想BS對債權的假設) 114.44.191.194 06/12 09:16
: → dos792:我建議y大先去找本教科書看看再說 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:47
: → dos792:lehman倒不是因為做連動債作到倒,是因其 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:49
: → dos792:玩cdo玩到倒。連動債的部門可賺錢的呢 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:50
: → dos792:如果硬要說不獨立,我可以說我每次大便出來 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:52
: → dos792:的溫度跟台股當天漲跌都是非0correlation 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:53
: → dos792:但這有任何義意嗎? 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:54
我是說經濟理論上的獨立 我不想扯太多
: → dos792:我只單純問你cash flow cdo怎麼hedge, 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:55
用CDS hedge 我不是你老師 沒必要回答太詳細 但你可以去看資產證券化的書
當credit event發生時 你的CDO拿不到錢 但是可以從保險公司(AIG)拿到CDS的賠償
(還有 不要再問我 如果這是討論 我沒太多義務回答你)
: → dos792:和一般option(or warrant)的hedge 差在那 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:55
: → dos792:你很快就會發現cdo portfolio本身就賭很大 140.112.50.199 06/12 09:56
基本上投資銀行要發行衍生物 一定是用風險中立評價
Risk Pool則留在保險公司 保險公司有他定價的模式(大數法則之類的)
投資銀行先打兩隻腳 一隻浮動端 一隻固定端 股權衍生物也是一樣 只是比較單純
所以cdo portfolio本身就「賭很大」這句話瑕疵很大
投資銀行一定是賺arbitrage的利差 他不會笨到曝險
1.
如果一檔連動債有包到信用衍生物 在Risk event本來就有直接關聯
2.
如果只是單純的連動債 我個人認為option的假設也不是很完美
尤其連結到Libor去的東西 本來就不是risk-free
再加上保證機構還有倒閉風險 怎麼會說bond端是無風險呢 Lehman不就倒給你看了
既然option的假設有瑕疵 本來就會有一些credit spread滲漏進你組合的東西裡面
相同的股價 (不同的信用風險下) 你的put價格可能會有一些差異 (call也是)
例如A公司的put在金融危機 和 無金融危機
即使BS的參數都相同 但option價格不太相同
BS沒納入信用風險的參數 所以信用風險老早就滲入你的資產組合
ps: 我不清楚Lehman的東西結構到底多複雜 但是倒閉時SPV只剩下1/3的價值
不像是風險中立下會發生的情況
: → washburn:兩位, 別推文了. 回文吧! 118.231.26.217 06/12 11:31
ok!
: 推 yuekun:我本來想推個幾句而已的 沒想到越推越多 114.44.191.194 06/12 11:35
--
※ 編輯: yuekun 來自: 114.44.191.194 (06/12 12:30)
→ dos792:我只能說你...我可能是台灣少數真的在 58.114.110.36 06/12 18:52
→ dos792:cdo 務實領域工作的人,我只想說聽你在.... 58.114.110.36 06/12 18:53
→ dos792:您這番言論真的隨便一個cdo fund 裡的人都 58.114.110.36 06/12 18:56
→ dos792:可以把你電的很慘 58.114.110.36 06/12 18:56
→ dos792:以美國流行的abs cdo來說,你可以找到 58.114.110.36 06/12 18:58
→ dos792:底下rmbs, auto loan..等的cds那真的要你 58.114.110.36 06/12 18:59
→ dos792:上輩子有燒好香 58.114.110.36 06/12 18:59
→ dos792:衍生物定價不見的是風險中立,比方說氣溫 58.114.110.36 06/12 19:26
→ dos792:天氣等選擇權,一般都不是 58.114.110.36 06/12 19:26
→ dos792:credit mkt非常不complete, 你找oksandal 58.114.110.36 06/12 19:27
→ dos792:的書您就會發現 您所謂的rn定價在現實信用 58.114.110.36 06/12 19:28
→ dos792:市場中有多可笑 58.114.110.36 06/12 19:28
→ yuekun:隨便你 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:06
→ yuekun:但你要如何推論到"次貸"跟"連動債"毫無關聯 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:09
→ yuekun:你大可說明你在哪間業界 以及何種債券用到 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:09
→ yuekun:氣溫 當作吸收新知也好 不要用業界就混過去 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:10
→ yuekun:還有 感謝您介紹oks"e"ndal給我 我會去念 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:18
推 linger3716:我買的連動債報酬率是Max[最低保證值, 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:19
→ yuekun:是6th那本嗎 我看他的動態還是風險中立評價 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:19
→ yuekun:不過我會好好拜讀啦 沒有風險中立(兩隻腳) 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:20
→ linger3716:恆生指數參考日變動幅度絕對值],誰可以 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:20
→ linger3716:說明這跟次級房貸的關係在哪? 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:21
→ yuekun:樓上你那屬於描述的第二種情況 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:22
→ yuekun:(兩隻腳) 要評價第三隻腳(賣給客人)的合理 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:26
→ yuekun:值 很新奇 如果是氣溫應該也要透過氣溫期貨 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:27
→ yuekun:或是複製投資組合來打第二隻腳 再看看 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:27
推 linger3716:如果你買的連動債連結標的沒牽涉到次級 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:34
→ linger3716:房貸,那就沒關 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:35
→ yuekun:我只能同意"很有可能"沒關 一定沒關不太能 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:36
推 linger3716:如果連動債連結標的跟次貸無關,但發行 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:38
→ linger3716:機構卻因為操作次貸衍生性商品而倒閉, 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:39
→ linger3716:以至於連動債無法履約(注意清償優先順 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:40
→ linger3716:序),那只能說是另一種意義上的有關 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:41
→ yuekun:樓上 我的意思是 次貸發生跟沒發生時 相同 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:42
→ yuekun:條件的選擇權 如果價格不一樣(這需要實證) 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:42
→ yuekun:就隱含信用利差在裡面 市場的價格是有考慮 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:44
→ yuekun:過的 但你契約的模型可能沒考慮信用風險 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:45
→ yuekun:那你的契約就包進了信用風險 就算是港股也 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:46
→ yuekun:是一樣 只要能證明次貸和太平盛世時 相同條 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:47
→ yuekun:漸的選擇權價格不同 那就證明了滲漏了一些 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:47
→ yuekun:東西到你的資產配置 其中很有可能的 就是 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:48
→ yuekun:信用風險 114.42.192.150 06/13 00:48
推 linger3716:拉術語來解釋問題的方式未必比較高明 211.74.191.248 06/13 00:57
→ yuekun:你一句一句慢慢看還是看得懂 我都用白話 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:00
推 linger3716:如果不能用白話給大一解釋經濟概念,而 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:02
→ linger3716:只能秀不動點,ito lemma等術語的教授, 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:03
→ linger3716:可能自己對經濟概念的理解也是不全的 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:03
→ linger3716:不然你問原po:是覺得我這樣解釋好理解, 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:04
→ linger3716:還是你那種方式好理解? 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:05
→ linger3716:像你剛剛講的東西,那就變成只有商品設 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:06
→ linger3716:計者自己心知肚明了,這種解說,不覺得離 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:08
→ linger3716:越來越遠了嗎? 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:08
→ yuekun:我覺得我只有"信用風險"比較專有名詞一點阿 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:09
推 linger3716:教授也覺得只有不動點,ito lemma比較專 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:13
→ linger3716:有名詞一點啊,那些大一生是怎麼搞的? 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:13
推 linger3716:Krugman數學很強,但他平常怎麼解釋經濟 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:17
→ linger3716:給一般人? 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:17
→ yuekun:可是看了推文 我覺得你用的數學也很專業阿 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:28
→ liton:linger3716到現在才知道樓上很會扯到其他話118.167.183.220 06/13 01:32
→ liton:題嗎?118.167.183.220 06/13 01:32
→ yuekun:樓上 是[linger3716:拉術語] 這句扯開的 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:33
→ yuekun:不然我還想回文繼續討論次貸跟連動債咧 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:33
推 linger3716:有其他人覺得我哪邊用了很專業,不是大 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:33
→ linger3716:學生會懂的數學嗎? 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:35
→ yuekun:我想說得東西中文就翻那樣 懂的人就懂 我又 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:36
→ yuekun:有什麼辦法 難道信用風險我要用一段話來寫 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:36
→ yuekun:會比用四個字好嗎 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:37
→ yuekun:信好我沒po我去翻Okendal的levy processes 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:38
→ liton:linger3716你看到上面這段話 你還要陪他扯嗎118.167.183.220 06/13 01:39
→ yuekun:我的心得是...看到第18章 還是打兩隻腳 沒 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:39
→ liton:都早點睡吧~~118.167.183.220 06/13 01:39
→ liton:這樣發散下去 是要扯到幾點啊118.167.183.220 06/13 01:40
→ yuekun:看到非風險中立評價 我覺得我是追根究底阿 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:40
→ yuekun:唉 算了 .... 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:43
推 linger3716:有個經濟學家說過:數學,術語也常被拿來 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:44
→ linger3716:掩飾自己對基本經濟概念的無知 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:45
→ linger3716:高手過招,管你用的技巧再花俏,也只會落 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:46
→ yuekun:我承認我對整個ShadowBanking系統還很無知 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:46
→ linger3716:得破綻百出,中箭落馬的下場 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:46
→ yuekun:但是至少我看得出有瑕疵的地方還是會提出 114.42.192.150 06/13 01:47
→ linger3716:卡早睏~ 211.74.191.248 06/13 01:47
→ dos792:y大,您只要好好的唸john hull就知道weathe 58.114.110.36 06/13 01:58
→ dos792:r derivatives 跟本不用rn pricin您很喜歡 58.114.110.36 06/13 01:59
→ dos792:拿專有名詞來虎弄人,但您知道你自已在談什 58.114.110.36 06/13 02:00
→ dos792:麼? 58.114.110.36 06/13 02:00
→ dreambreaken:別凹了..我這連ito lemma都忘了是甚 118.169.196.44 06/13 03:13
→ dreambreaken:麼的人都知道誰對誰錯,要了解次貸 118.169.196.44 06/13 03:14
→ dreambreaken:只需要邏輯觀念+google 118.169.196.44 06/13 03:14
推 linger3716:在明眼人看來,這就像是大一生問消費者 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:03
→ linger3716:的問題,高年級翻過MGW前面,就拿裡面的 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:05
→ linger3716:語言東扯西扯,回答問題不著邊際,隔靴搔 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:07
→ linger3716:癢.這種人似乎以為看MGW的不多,所以能 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:08
→ linger3716:拿來扯一下,又好像忽略別人能google 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:10
推 linger3716:建議原po從yashotai跟我推文連結當敲門 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:16
→ linger3716:磚,至於喜歡做些發散解說,秀秀術語的人 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:19
→ linger3716:好啦,我們知道你念過一點財工,來拍拍手 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:20
推 linger3716:還有,連動債這商品的出現比次貸早很多 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:26
推 linger3716:這波爆的連動債,有些是連結到次貸,也有 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:41
→ linger3716:連結其他指數而虧損,如石來運轉 203.67.213.216 06/13 08:43
推 linger3716:我沒有用術語包裝,深怕別人不知道自己 203.67.213.216 06/13 09:15
→ linger3716:讀過什麼的恐懼,原po哪邊不懂我再回吧~ 203.67.213.216 06/13 09:17
→ linger3716:Krugman,Mankiw這些深懂學術語言的人, 203.67.213.216 06/13 09:23
→ linger3716:照樣能用優美散文解釋經濟,無須包裝 203.67.213.216 06/13 09:24
→ yuekun:別人用尖酸苛薄的話攻擊我 我覺得我已經很 114.42.184.227 06/13 13:40
→ yuekun:努力讓討論和諧而且易讀了 114.42.184.227 06/13 13:41
推 pitching:cdo 在auto abs 有人敢發嗎XD122.118.213.138 06/13 15:27
→ pitching:容易違約又不能用賣掉車子來回補多少...122.118.213.138 06/13 15:28
Tags:
經濟
All Comments

By Rachel
at 2009-06-13T21:11
at 2009-06-13T21:11

By Lucy
at 2009-06-16T14:04
at 2009-06-16T14:04

By Kristin
at 2009-06-20T20:22
at 2009-06-20T20:22

By Charlotte
at 2009-06-21T23:32
at 2009-06-21T23:32

By Joe
at 2009-06-26T18:35
at 2009-06-26T18:35

By Irma
at 2009-07-01T04:08
at 2009-07-01T04:08

By Kama
at 2009-07-03T22:25
at 2009-07-03T22:25

By Lily
at 2009-07-08T06:35
at 2009-07-08T06:35

By Dora
at 2009-07-12T09:26
at 2009-07-12T09:26

By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2009-07-16T22:14
at 2009-07-16T22:14

By Emma
at 2009-07-18T16:54
at 2009-07-18T16:54

By George
at 2009-07-19T23:00
at 2009-07-19T23:00

By Zora
at 2009-07-22T16:10
at 2009-07-22T16:10

By William
at 2009-07-26T16:09
at 2009-07-26T16:09

By Kristin
at 2009-07-31T06:22
at 2009-07-31T06:22

By Freda
at 2009-08-02T09:20
at 2009-08-02T09:20

By Gilbert
at 2009-08-03T22:02
at 2009-08-03T22:02

By Joseph
at 2009-08-07T03:27
at 2009-08-07T03:27

By Gilbert
at 2009-08-11T12:18
at 2009-08-11T12:18

By Ina
at 2009-08-11T19:02
at 2009-08-11T19:02

By Kyle
at 2009-08-16T02:16
at 2009-08-16T02:16

By Puput
at 2009-08-18T12:21
at 2009-08-18T12:21

By Rae
at 2009-08-22T21:38
at 2009-08-22T21:38

By Lydia
at 2009-08-23T01:54
at 2009-08-23T01:54

By Kyle
at 2009-08-26T16:55
at 2009-08-26T16:55

By Erin
at 2009-08-30T01:11
at 2009-08-30T01:11

By Rebecca
at 2009-08-30T11:15
at 2009-08-30T11:15

By Rebecca
at 2009-09-03T05:50
at 2009-09-03T05:50

By Victoria
at 2009-09-04T06:04
at 2009-09-04T06:04

By Ingrid
at 2009-09-06T08:03
at 2009-09-06T08:03

By Carolina Franco
at 2009-09-10T22:35
at 2009-09-10T22:35

By Ethan
at 2009-09-13T11:35
at 2009-09-13T11:35

By Lily
at 2009-09-14T11:14
at 2009-09-14T11:14

By Tristan Cohan
at 2009-09-17T21:22
at 2009-09-17T21:22

By Steve
at 2009-09-20T12:21
at 2009-09-20T12:21

By Madame
at 2009-09-22T14:58
at 2009-09-22T14:58

By Skylar Davis
at 2009-09-26T19:15
at 2009-09-26T19:15

By Elizabeth
at 2009-10-01T16:19
at 2009-10-01T16:19

By Bethany
at 2009-10-03T21:43
at 2009-10-03T21:43

By Edwina
at 2009-10-05T20:10
at 2009-10-05T20:10

By Emily
at 2009-10-08T03:32
at 2009-10-08T03:32

By Donna
at 2009-10-11T22:35
at 2009-10-11T22:35

By Audriana
at 2009-10-13T22:29
at 2009-10-13T22:29

By Adele
at 2009-10-17T07:43
at 2009-10-17T07:43

By Steve
at 2009-10-21T00:27
at 2009-10-21T00:27

By Poppy
at 2009-10-24T07:03
at 2009-10-24T07:03

By Olive
at 2009-10-28T09:45
at 2009-10-28T09:45

By Zora
at 2009-10-29T16:21
at 2009-10-29T16:21

By Eden
at 2009-10-30T10:14
at 2009-10-30T10:14

By Yedda
at 2009-10-30T12:09
at 2009-10-30T12:09

By Freda
at 2009-11-01T15:25
at 2009-11-01T15:25

By Caitlin
at 2009-11-05T17:27
at 2009-11-05T17:27

By Oliver
at 2009-11-07T20:24
at 2009-11-07T20:24

By Franklin
at 2009-11-08T23:23
at 2009-11-08T23:23

By Edwina
at 2009-11-09T18:45
at 2009-11-09T18:45

By Charlie
at 2009-11-11T07:32
at 2009-11-11T07:32

By Kumar
at 2009-11-12T21:32
at 2009-11-12T21:32

By Faithe
at 2009-11-14T04:08
at 2009-11-14T04:08

By Lucy
at 2009-11-15T09:58
at 2009-11-15T09:58

By Ophelia
at 2009-11-17T04:27
at 2009-11-17T04:27

By Ophelia
at 2009-11-21T18:24
at 2009-11-21T18:24

By Zenobia
at 2009-11-22T17:37
at 2009-11-22T17:37

By Ivy
at 2009-11-24T03:37
at 2009-11-24T03:37

By Candice
at 2009-11-27T02:11
at 2009-11-27T02:11

By Rebecca
at 2009-11-30T21:33
at 2009-11-30T21:33

By Blanche
at 2009-12-05T14:48
at 2009-12-05T14:48

By Frederica
at 2009-12-09T23:27
at 2009-12-09T23:27

By Una
at 2009-12-14T18:18
at 2009-12-14T18:18

By Ula
at 2009-12-16T09:53
at 2009-12-16T09:53

By Blanche
at 2009-12-19T05:33
at 2009-12-19T05:33

By Edward Lewis
at 2009-12-20T14:21
at 2009-12-20T14:21

By Dora
at 2009-12-24T18:26
at 2009-12-24T18:26

By Kristin
at 2009-12-27T21:10
at 2009-12-27T21:10

By Gilbert
at 2009-12-28T13:56
at 2009-12-28T13:56

By Anthony
at 2010-01-02T09:50
at 2010-01-02T09:50

By Oscar
at 2010-01-02T15:12
at 2010-01-02T15:12

By Kumar
at 2010-01-05T06:38
at 2010-01-05T06:38

By Noah
at 2010-01-07T02:35
at 2010-01-07T02:35

By Kumar
at 2010-01-10T18:14
at 2010-01-10T18:14

By Vanessa
at 2010-01-11T12:27
at 2010-01-11T12:27

By Annie
at 2010-01-14T10:53
at 2010-01-14T10:53

By Carol
at 2010-01-19T07:39
at 2010-01-19T07:39

By Odelette
at 2010-01-21T02:13
at 2010-01-21T02:13

By Ula
at 2010-01-22T18:49
at 2010-01-22T18:49

By Selena
at 2010-01-23T15:04
at 2010-01-23T15:04

By Lucy
at 2010-01-28T02:29
at 2010-01-28T02:29

By Hedy
at 2010-02-01T04:03
at 2010-02-01T04:03

By Belly
at 2010-02-01T14:01
at 2010-02-01T14:01

By Sarah
at 2010-02-05T15:33
at 2010-02-05T15:33
Related Posts
凱因斯 節儉的矛盾

By Agatha
at 2009-06-11T13:00
at 2009-06-11T13:00
凱因斯 節儉的矛盾

By Irma
at 2009-06-11T11:20
at 2009-06-11T11:20
美國的利率

By Margaret
at 2009-06-11T01:39
at 2009-06-11T01:39
財經新聞的解讀

By Ophelia
at 2009-06-10T23:42
at 2009-06-10T23:42
美國的利率

By Yuri
at 2009-06-10T22:07
at 2009-06-10T22:07