救台股!金管會:明起禁止平盤下放空 - 股票

By Quanna
at 2015-08-23T18:03
at 2015-08-23T18:03
Table of Contents
歷史上 平盤下禁止放空走勢
1998/9/4 ~ 2005 (亞洲金融風暴)
2008/9/22 150檔禁止平盤下放空
2008/10/14 ~2008/10/31 (美國次貸風暴)
大盤指數
開盤 收盤 漲跌幅
1998/9/4 6254 6463 +211 (收最高)
1998/9/5 6507 6755 +292 (收最高)
1998/9/7 6769 6800 +45
1998/9/8 6820 6942 +141 (收最高)
1998/9/9 7017 6894 -47
1998/9/19 7069 7149 (短線最高點/自9/4起漲點漲了895點)
1998/10/2 6512 6436 -266 (回跌/短線最低點/後續漲回)
1998/10/3 6481 6619 +183
1998/11/4 7002 6905 -166
1998/11/24 7452 7435 +123 (近期內最高點/中線跌幅起點)
1998/12/4 7165 7201 +61
1999/1/5 6310 6152 -266 (持續破底)
1999/2/5 5506 5474 -40 (近期內最低點自9/4跌1675點/中線漲幅起點)
1999/3/5 6426 6383 -10
1999/4/6 7276 7182 -50
1999/4/20 7580 7627 +4 (一路漲至1999/6/22 8608波段最高點)
--
大盤指數
開盤 收盤 漲跌幅
2008/9/15 6198 6052 -258 雷曼兄弟破產
2008/9/22 6156 6110 +140
2008/9/23 6016 6182 +71 開盤跌94點 拉165點上來...
但也是長線跌幅起點
2008/9/24 6136 6132 -49
2008/9/25 6056 6060 -71
2008/9/26 6095 5929 -131
2008/9/30 5534 5719 -210
2009/10/13 4996 5020 -110
2008/10/14 5321 5291 +271 宣布全面禁止放空
2008/10/15 5225 5246 -45
2008/10/16 5069 5075 -170 當日成交量剩287億
2008/10/23 4706 4730 -132 成交量258億,無量下跌粉恐怖
2008/10/24 4599 4579 -150
2008/11/17 4362 4439 -12
2008/11/20 4120 4089 -194 殺到出汁 (也是長線最低點)
2008/11/21 3962 4171 +81 安安鄉民最熟的當日最低 3955
當日最高尬到4194 +239點
2008/12/15 4604 4613 +132 接著打底緩漲了一個多月,成交量712億
2009/1/15 4350 4320 -200 接著再洗一個月
2009/2/16 4605 4591 -1 陸續洗到3月初 (2009年3月米國QE1放錢)
後面的故事大家很熟 就不再列了
--
差異點 : 1998亞洲金融風暴,台灣仗著高外匯存底,9A總裁狠狠修理了鎖螺絲的
主要戰場匯市,對股期損傷不大
2008次貸風暴,台灣金融業也有影響到,加上整個通貨緊縮,出口大幅衰退
結論 : 1. 明天要空先別衝動,歷史上:
(1) 1998年半個月尬了快900點
(2) 2008年2天內尬了300點(接著一個月跌1000點)
這次會尬多少點 尬多久不知道
2. 大波段向下沒有所謂的V轉 (例如現價已低於10年線),就是持續破底
先量縮,再來待跌勢終止,跌不下去
3. 價跌不下去進入盤整,待出量且站上短中期均線,多頭排列才開始大波段漲幅
操作:中長期作空
--
這次實際比較像2008,隨著經濟成長衰退開啟跌幅,
希望對你有幫助
--
Tags:
股票
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