房市比預期還熱 全台推案量破1.4兆 - 股票
By Rachel
at 2019-12-22T11:55
at 2019-12-22T11:55
Table of Contents
先說結論,台灣的房市只會越來越差(扣掉跌深反彈的時間的話)
不知道大家有沒有發現,為什麼2012~2014台灣房市井噴?
只要對照近兩年是台灣人口總數的最高峰,你就會理解為什麼了
(雖然今年開始已經實質負成長了...)
回頭一看,2012~2014除了馬政府的刻意扶植房價之外
2012~2014房價井噴似乎是必然會發生的事情
因為這是人口結構產生重大改變的結果
簡單講就是人口數反轉前的最後末噴段,噴完之後就是逃命
在剛性需求即將大幅滑落的將來,只剩下舊房換新房的需求
(不要跟我說引進東南亞外勞可以增加人口,他們是買得起台灣房子逆?)
同樣的現象宜蘭雪隧開通前也上演過,我相信下個月1/6蘇花改開通後的花蓮也會一樣
所以建商跟你說明年推案爆量,但是他絕對不敢跟你說
現在的99萬間空屋要怎麼辦 ㄎㄎ
※ 引述《a000000000 (中野零nine)》之銘言:
: 1.台北市的家戶平均所得>180萬惹
: 2.台北市的房貸負擔率60% 新北50% 其他地區都30%上下
: 30%是蠻正常的數字
: 而且台灣房屋稅跟沒有一樣
: 3.少子化 人口會更往都市集中
: 鄉下地區會更慘 台北難說
: 很多抱怨買不起台北的人
: 都沒搞清楚兩件事:
: 住台北的人有錢
: 住台北的人願意犧牲生活(可支配所得六成) 來入住台北
: 從歪國的角度看
: 會覺得台灣人為惹住台北真的瘋惹
: 可支配所得的六成耶
: 簡單來講
: 想買台北=跟瘋子搶房
: 想搶贏 只能更瘋
: 最近聽弄房地產的朋友說
: 明年營建股會不錯
: 對比PTT上罵台北太貴的人
: 不知道他悶怎摸看?
: 我是不太相信那些只會抱怨的人
: = =
--
不知道大家有沒有發現,為什麼2012~2014台灣房市井噴?
只要對照近兩年是台灣人口總數的最高峰,你就會理解為什麼了
(雖然今年開始已經實質負成長了...)
回頭一看,2012~2014除了馬政府的刻意扶植房價之外
2012~2014房價井噴似乎是必然會發生的事情
因為這是人口結構產生重大改變的結果
簡單講就是人口數反轉前的最後末噴段,噴完之後就是逃命
在剛性需求即將大幅滑落的將來,只剩下舊房換新房的需求
(不要跟我說引進東南亞外勞可以增加人口,他們是買得起台灣房子逆?)
同樣的現象宜蘭雪隧開通前也上演過,我相信下個月1/6蘇花改開通後的花蓮也會一樣
所以建商跟你說明年推案爆量,但是他絕對不敢跟你說
現在的99萬間空屋要怎麼辦 ㄎㄎ
※ 引述《a000000000 (中野零nine)》之銘言:
: 1.台北市的家戶平均所得>180萬惹
: 2.台北市的房貸負擔率60% 新北50% 其他地區都30%上下
: 30%是蠻正常的數字
: 而且台灣房屋稅跟沒有一樣
: 3.少子化 人口會更往都市集中
: 鄉下地區會更慘 台北難說
: 很多抱怨買不起台北的人
: 都沒搞清楚兩件事:
: 住台北的人有錢
: 住台北的人願意犧牲生活(可支配所得六成) 來入住台北
: 從歪國的角度看
: 會覺得台灣人為惹住台北真的瘋惹
: 可支配所得的六成耶
: 簡單來講
: 想買台北=跟瘋子搶房
: 想搶贏 只能更瘋
: 最近聽弄房地產的朋友說
: 明年營建股會不錯
: 對比PTT上罵台北太貴的人
: 不知道他悶怎摸看?
: 我是不太相信那些只會抱怨的人
: = =
--
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