德勤： 美國頁岩油撐不住了 - 股票

最後有中文不負責任心得：

網路連結如下：

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/6/22/deloitte-reports-continued-strain-for-sh
ale-producers-even-as-oil-prices-rise


正文開始

Deloitte reports continued strain for shale producers, even as oil prices rise

By KEVIN CROWLEY on 6/22/2020



HOUSTON (Bloomberg) --Almost a third of U.S. shale producers are technically ins
olvent with crude at $35 a barrel, according to Deloitte LLP, highlighting the i
ndustry’s acute financial strain even as oil prices rebound from a record low e
arlier this year.


West Texas Intermediate edged up to $40.06 a barrel at 11:38 a.m. in New York, a
substantially higher level compared with most of the last few months, especiall
y April, when prices briefly went negative. But the rebound will do little to pr
event 15 years of debt-fueled production growth catching up with many shale prod
ucers, Deloitte said in a study. Technical insolvency is an accounting way of sa
ying a company will face problems meeting debt repayments.


“New and unforeseen headwinds continue to jolt the industry’s progress,” auth
ors Duane Dickson, Kate Hardin and Anshu Mittal said in the report. “Although t
he sub-zero price was a temporary dislocation, this intense volatility highlight
s the fragile state of the industry.”


Shale was just getting on a more solid footing and learning to live with $50 a b
arrel oil before the Covid-19 pandemic ripped through global crude demand causin
g prices to plunge. Now, shale producers may be forced to write down their asset
s by $300 billion this year, Deloitte said. That’s equivalent to the entire mar
ket value of Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s No. 2 and 3 m
ajor oil companies.


While the writedowns are non-cash items, they reduce the value of a company’s e
quity and increase their debt-to-equity ratios, a key measure of indebtedness us
ed by lenders. The shale industry’s leverage ratio would increase to 54% from 4
0% with the writedowns.


That “can trigger many negative sequences of events, including bankruptcy,” De
loitte said.


Shale producers’ financial problems stem from a decade’s worth of huge product
ion growth using new fracking technologies funded by massive borrowing and finan
cing from Wall Street.


The production boom propelled the U.S. to become the world’s largest producer o
f both oil and gas. But in doing so, companies burned through some $342 billion
of cash since 2010, leaving little in the way of returns for investors.


Chisholm Oil & Gas and Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection
last week, joining others including Whiting Petroleum Corp. and Ultra Petroleum
Corp. Meanwhile, Chesapeake Energy Corp. and California Resources Corp. have wa
rned investors they’re at risk of failing to meet debt obligations.


Technical insolvency means a company’s discounted future value at a certain oil
price is lower than their net liabilities. Whether or not a company actually fi
les for Chapter 11 bankruptcy depends on breathing room and new credit provided
by lenders.


翻譯：

德勤會師事務所（以年收入及員工數目計，德勤是全球最大的會計師事務所）


他們認為

只要油價低於一桶35美金 就會有1/3的美國頁岩油廠商破產

雖然發文當天（6/22）西德州原油還有一桶40.06美金

但是40.06美金 跟今年年初的一桶60美金 還是差距很大

這種價差 會計師作帳還是照算進資產價值減損，頁岩油生產商今年可能被迫減記（invento
ry write-down 會計專有名詞）3000億美元資產。 這相當於世界第二和第三大石油公司雪
佛龍公司和荷蘭皇家殼牌公司的整體市值。


儘管減記是非現金項目，但它們會減少公司股權的價值，並增加其債務權益比率，這是貸款
方使用債務的一項關鍵指標。 頁岩行業的槓桿率將從減記的40％增加到54％。


德勤表示，這“可能引發許多負面事件，包括破產。”

頁岩生產商的財務問題源於使用新的壓裂技術，這些新技術由華爾街提供大量借貸和融資資
金。

這些頁岩油公司花了大約3,420億美元現金，幾乎沒有給投資者帶來回報。

Chisholm油氣公司和Extraction油氣公司上週申請破產保護，之前已經有Whiting石油公司
和Ultra石油公司在內的其他公司破產

切薩皮克能源公司和加利福尼亞資源公司已警告投資者，他們有遭受破產的風險。 沒有履
行債務義務。

個人結論：在疫情完全沒減緩 航空業持續低迷
美國頁岩油還在提列之前的損失，怎麼看都癌症末期 沒救了


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