德勤: 美國頁岩油撐不住了 - 股票

Table of Contents

最後有中文不負責任心得:

網路連結如下:

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/6/22/deloitte-reports-continued-strain-for-sh
ale-producers-even-as-oil-prices-rise


正文開始

Deloitte reports continued strain for shale producers, even as oil prices rise

By KEVIN CROWLEY on 6/22/2020



HOUSTON (Bloomberg) --Almost a third of U.S. shale producers are technically ins
olvent with crude at $35 a barrel, according to Deloitte LLP, highlighting the i
ndustry’s acute financial strain even as oil prices rebound from a record low e
arlier this year.


West Texas Intermediate edged up to $40.06 a barrel at 11:38 a.m. in New York, a
substantially higher level compared with most of the last few months, especiall
y April, when prices briefly went negative. But the rebound will do little to pr
event 15 years of debt-fueled production growth catching up with many shale prod
ucers, Deloitte said in a study. Technical insolvency is an accounting way of sa
ying a company will face problems meeting debt repayments.


“New and unforeseen headwinds continue to jolt the industry’s progress,” auth
ors Duane Dickson, Kate Hardin and Anshu Mittal said in the report. “Although t
he sub-zero price was a temporary dislocation, this intense volatility highlight
s the fragile state of the industry.”


Shale was just getting on a more solid footing and learning to live with $50 a b
arrel oil before the Covid-19 pandemic ripped through global crude demand causin
g prices to plunge. Now, shale producers may be forced to write down their asset
s by $300 billion this year, Deloitte said. That’s equivalent to the entire mar
ket value of Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s No. 2 and 3 m
ajor oil companies.


While the writedowns are non-cash items, they reduce the value of a company’s e
quity and increase their debt-to-equity ratios, a key measure of indebtedness us
ed by lenders. The shale industry’s leverage ratio would increase to 54% from 4
0% with the writedowns.


That “can trigger many negative sequences of events, including bankruptcy,” De
loitte said.


Shale producers’ financial problems stem from a decade’s worth of huge product
ion growth using new fracking technologies funded by massive borrowing and finan
cing from Wall Street.


The production boom propelled the U.S. to become the world’s largest producer o
f both oil and gas. But in doing so, companies burned through some $342 billion
of cash since 2010, leaving little in the way of returns for investors.


Chisholm Oil & Gas and Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection
last week, joining others including Whiting Petroleum Corp. and Ultra Petroleum
Corp. Meanwhile, Chesapeake Energy Corp. and California Resources Corp. have wa
rned investors they’re at risk of failing to meet debt obligations.


Technical insolvency means a company’s discounted future value at a certain oil
price is lower than their net liabilities. Whether or not a company actually fi
les for Chapter 11 bankruptcy depends on breathing room and new credit provided
by lenders.


翻譯:

德勤會師事務所(以年收入及員工數目計,德勤是全球最大的會計師事務所)


他們認為

只要油價低於一桶35美金 就會有1/3的美國頁岩油廠商破產

雖然發文當天(6/22)西德州原油還有一桶40.06美金

但是40.06美金 跟今年年初的一桶60美金 還是差距很大

這種價差 會計師作帳還是照算進資產價值減損,頁岩油生產商今年可能被迫減記(invento
ry write-down 會計專有名詞)3000億美元資產。 這相當於世界第二和第三大石油公司雪
佛龍公司和荷蘭皇家殼牌公司的整體市值。


儘管減記是非現金項目,但它們會減少公司股權的價值,並增加其債務權益比率,這是貸款
方使用債務的一項關鍵指標。 頁岩行業的槓桿率將從減記的40%增加到54%。


德勤表示,這“可能引發許多負面事件,包括破產。”

頁岩生產商的財務問題源於使用新的壓裂技術,這些新技術由華爾街提供大量借貸和融資資
金。

這些頁岩油公司花了大約3,420億美元現金,幾乎沒有給投資者帶來回報。

Chisholm油氣公司和Extraction油氣公司上週申請破產保護,之前已經有Whiting石油公司
和Ultra石油公司在內的其他公司破產

切薩皮克能源公司和加利福尼亞資源公司已警告投資者,他們有遭受破產的風險。 沒有履
行債務義務。

個人結論:在疫情完全沒減緩 航空業持續低迷
美國頁岩油還在提列之前的損失,怎麼看都癌症末期 沒救了


--

All Comments

Oscar avatarOscar2020-06-27
6/22的消息 所以是已反應??
Charlie avatarCharlie2020-06-27
德勤的報告 呵呵
Ula avatarUla2020-06-27
zZzzzz
Zanna avatarZanna2020-06-29
消息出來吃貨
Sandy avatarSandy2020-07-02
Lauren avatarLauren2020-07-04
99 amd
Mason avatarMason2020-07-08
頁岩油一直都在說撐不住,還不是好好的
Heather avatarHeather2020-07-11
還來啊
George avatarGeorge2020-07-11
油漲到40了 剛好是頁岩油成本啊 最好是會倒
Jessica avatarJessica2020-07-16
shale其實有超高負債,還沒到期而已,問題會一直延
續到明後年
Jake avatarJake2020-07-20
美國頁岩油代表 OXY
Adele avatarAdele2020-07-24
就算油價0元 頁岩油商一樣會存在
Heather avatarHeather2020-07-27
Fed該你上場救援囉~~~~
Odelette avatarOdelette2020-07-31
頁岩油的問題不是死不死的問題.
Isla avatarIsla2020-08-02
而是它們誕生太快了.
資金和技術的訴求都不高.
所以只要油價漲到一個數字,就又冒出來.
像蟑螂一樣,死光了沒多久,又生了一群..XD
Ethan avatarEthan2020-08-07
頁岩油品質沒有很好 不是被退過貨
Eden avatarEden2020-08-08
明明海好好的,騙誰呢?
Ursula avatarUrsula2020-08-09
要不是老美推的 有國家願意收嗎
Belly avatarBelly2020-08-10
這樣就是立flag 要讓油低於35
Sarah avatarSarah2020-08-13
油價來來回回的幾輪 就不會有資金想投資頁岩油了
Delia avatarDelia2020-08-15
俄羅斯:沙鳥地兄弟,我們成功了
Joseph avatarJoseph2020-08-16
Val噴發
Rae avatarRae2020-08-17
你會把資金投資在隨時可能撐不住的企業嗎?
Rachel avatarRachel2020-08-20
現在會跌都是他害的
Carolina Franco avatarCarolina Franco2020-08-24
會啊,台股不就一堆,股價可以做上去做價差割菜啊
Jacky avatarJacky2020-08-27
小心不要被沙某的綠票票砸壞了
Agatha avatarAgatha2020-08-28
生技不就一堆
Enid avatarEnid2020-08-30
救命-.-
Mason avatarMason2020-08-31
這樣油價是繼續崩到0元嗎?
Ophelia avatarOphelia2020-09-02
才3000億,印一下就有啦。
Agatha avatarAgatha2020-09-05
所以頁岩油從以前到現在都還沒回本?
Edward Lewis avatarEdward Lewis2020-09-10
崩啦
Vanessa avatarVanessa2020-09-12
中國大概慘了 南海可能要小心
Wallis avatarWallis2020-09-12
政府請給我黃金
Hedy avatarHedy2020-09-15
要報復性上漲了
Annie avatarAnnie2020-09-18
FED表示發多少債都收
Donna avatarDonna2020-09-19
頁岩油爆了以後油價就要井噴了 還不快進場佈局
Franklin avatarFranklin2020-09-21
勤業眾信
Edwina avatarEdwina2020-09-24
代表油價要飆了
Ingrid avatarIngrid2020-09-29
快把正二帶起來喔,我的三萬塊彩券已經蠢蠢欲動了
Emily avatarEmily2020-10-01
鴿子終於到了
Steve avatarSteve2020-10-03
不就跌價損失?
Zanna avatarZanna2020-10-06
404哪招
Irma avatarIrma2020-10-08
都漲到40還撐不住 那乾脆收一收好了
Ivy avatarIvy2020-10-13
爽 美國吃屎就是爽
Zanna avatarZanna2020-10-13
借新還舊怎麼破產
Harry avatarHarry2020-10-15
汰弱留強倒一倒 石油產量少,油價就起來了啊
Elizabeth avatarElizabeth2020-10-17
航空業只燒了10%的油,主力還是汽車,不過油價還是
看炒家想往那邊炒。
Edith avatarEdith2020-10-20
無限衂E + 川普投顧 = Strong buy
Vanessa avatarVanessa2020-10-24
頁油商倒->產量變少->油價上漲->頁油商復活->產量
上升->油價跌->頁油商倒 XDDD
Erin avatarErin2020-10-26
完了 倒閉
Margaret avatarMargaret2020-10-28
頂不住拉 不過就算這樣還是不可能到60 癡人說夢
疫情恢復後倒是肯定會破百就是了
Jacob avatarJacob2020-10-28
只要有人肯繼續買債都不是問題
Quanna avatarQuanna2020-10-29
想問這樣對石化業有甚麼影響
Xanthe avatarXanthe2020-10-31
倒幾間沒差~倒全部就是跟川普做對!想想發生機率高嗎
Skylar Davis avatarSkylar Davis2020-11-02
幸福所繼續幸福
Damian avatarDamian2020-11-06
等美國不用石油,再來說頁岩油會倒閉好嗎!
Edith avatarEdith2020-11-09
事務所的報告有看的價值嗎
Rachel avatarRachel2020-11-10
該倒的早就倒了
Caroline avatarCaroline2020-11-10
傻帽別傻了...超過50美元頁岩油馬上就大復活
Steve avatarSteve2020-11-14
這新聞會不會太晚發現"他想跟別人講的事"@@
Ivy avatarIvy2020-11-15
美國如果停止輸入原油,只用自家頁岩油,似乎也不貴
Gary avatarGary2020-11-15
週末鬼故事想嚇誰
Yedda avatarYedda2020-11-17
幸福企業 幸福人生
Jake avatarJake2020-11-21
應該是之前油價高的時候開槓桿,現在會計帳價值萎縮
影響融資吧
Donna avatarDonna2020-11-23
終於等到吃貨文了 又有噴一波
Margaret avatarMargaret2020-11-25
沒關係 有無限QE阿 撐不住了 美國爸爸QE印給你
Daniel avatarDaniel2020-11-29
油價剛要有賺而已,怎麼倒?
Michael avatarMichael2020-11-29
普丁:跟我鬥
Ida avatarIda2020-11-30
普丁:我可是民主國家的皇帝
Hedda avatarHedda2020-11-30
油價要噴了
Kristin avatarKristin2020-12-03
共和黨金主:垃圾川這廢物辦事不力 看我們怎麼修理
Barb Cronin avatarBarb Cronin2020-12-06
哈 穩了ㄟ