從台積電看PEG估價與成長股的關係(下) - 股票
By Ursula
at 2020-01-14T23:46
at 2020-01-14T23:46
Table of Contents
感謝上一篇看完文章的版友
同時也感謝nangaluchen、jagger兩位版友對PEG的批評跟指教
另外也感謝kklarinet,就當我是要大家抬轎的吧,總之發完這篇
我是不會再寫任何關於分析個股的文章了,謝謝。
不過在寫文章之前,我還是要為PEG做個辯護。
PEG的提出與發揚光大,乃是來自兩位大師
https://reurl.cc/M7EAxL =>這是維基百科對於PEG的介紹
尤其是彼得林區,我想,對於熟悉基本分析的人來說,應該不陌生吧? @@
麥哲倫基金的傳奇前經理人,執掌麥哲倫基金13年,年化報酬率29%
他正是將這個概念發揚光大的人。
---------------------------------------------------------------------
圖多,這是網頁好讀版
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1579016811.A.90F.html
上一篇看完,你已經有衝動打算解掉你的美金定存,all in GG了嗎?
且慢,這篇要開始講風險了。。。。。
---------------------------------------------------------------------
風險(一)未來的成長始終是預估,真能持續嗎?
https://imgur.com/RP0JZrS
這是上一篇我來說明成長與本益比的表格,內文提到
如果說2020年每股盈餘16,股價346,或是每股盈餘18,股價390,是有可能達到的股價
但是這是順利成長時的股價。
萬一是這樣呢?我們來看這個表格
https://imgur.com/bw2C198
萬一是紅色這欄呢?假設是2020年發生了類似光阻劑的事件,或是經濟衰退抽訂單
不只盈餘沒有成長反而衰退,用相同的本益比21.7來看,股價是260元
而且如果發生衰退,市場如果給出17,甚至是15的本益比呢?
這時候股價會掉到200以下的
喔對,眾人恐慌時我貪婪,就是用在這時候的。
----------------------------------------------------------------------
風險(二)PEG低,你買到是便宜的穩定成長股?還是景氣循環股?還是轉機股?
還是小型的快速成長股?
一個股票本益比低,自有其原因
以上一篇有推文提到的世紀鋼,這就是很明顯的景氣循環股
https://imgur.com/MMaTurA
為什麼2019年的成長率高,導致PEG低?
因為2015~2018年都呈現衰退,2018年的基期低,2019年成長率自然就高
這樣會導致你對股價的誤判,本來你想買成長股的,但是你其實是買到景氣循環股
轉機股也是類似上面的狀況,當狀況好轉時
因為上個年度基期低,才讓這個年度的成長率高,這樣PEG當然就低了。
小型的快速成長股 =>這是最要小心的類型,誤判會賠最多
如果有個公司,稅後淨利年年成長40%,市佔率低於5%
新興產業,產業年成長率10~20%
假設本益比是40, PEG = 40/40 = 1,本益比40看似不會太不合理,but.....
但是,快速成長的小型公司,往往缺乏競爭的護城河
在產業快速成長的階段,說白了,在風口,豬也會飛起來
台灣股市一代拳王的例子多了去,試想一下,那些一代股王的例子
是新興產業還是成熟產業?為什麼那些股王都殞落了?
因為產業前景看好,會吸引一堆競爭者來競爭
但是短期的勝利並沒有轉換為長期優勢
(快速成長股的例子,想想宏達電)
用PEG選到上面這幾個股票,代表你還不夠了解你買的標的
如果不能深入了解你買的股票,這間公司怎麼賺錢的
我建議你買ETF就好
葛拉漢:投機不是不行,最要命的是你以為你在投資,但其實你是在投機。
-------------------------------------------------------------------
風險(三)投入的比例與你要用這筆錢的時間
試想,你如果是個手握有300萬的年輕人,後年你預計要結婚,需要一間房子
而這三百萬是你的頭期款,你心想,大家說台GG是成長股,每年成長15%
所以我all in 買GG,兩年後變成將近400萬,不只房子有了,連百萬名車都有了
我只能奉勸你,股市並不能為你支付什麼 @@
房子、車子什麼都不行。
因為誰知道明年會不會突然就衰退?GG就掉到股價150以下?
如果股價掉到150以下你後年要不要買房結婚?
另外,我最近的體悟是
我們往往希望把近兩年會用到的錢放在快速成長股
希望在兩年後快速成長、倍增
然後把十年後會用到的錢放在成長緩慢、安全的地方
不過上面的配置應該要反過來,十年都用不到的錢,才能放在成長股。
--------------------------------------------------------------------
好啦,這篇最主要是希望大家不要幫我抬轎
先想想風險,再把你的錢丟進去。
--
懶得再說,兩篇文章花了我超過四個小時來打
我講句XX一點的,PTT發文讓鄉民拉抬GG?你要不要看看股本有多少?
--
Tags:
股票
All Comments
By Rae
at 2020-01-19T05:25
at 2020-01-19T05:25
By Linda
at 2020-01-21T19:44
at 2020-01-21T19:44
By Odelette
at 2020-01-25T09:52
at 2020-01-25T09:52
By Candice
at 2020-01-26T06:28
at 2020-01-26T06:28
By Lily
at 2020-01-28T11:37
at 2020-01-28T11:37
By Hazel
at 2020-02-01T19:01
at 2020-02-01T19:01
By Callum
at 2020-02-06T09:07
at 2020-02-06T09:07
By Quanna
at 2020-02-06T11:06
at 2020-02-06T11:06
By Jake
at 2020-02-10T04:10
at 2020-02-10T04:10
By Irma
at 2020-02-13T05:30
at 2020-02-13T05:30
By Hedy
at 2020-02-15T23:51
at 2020-02-15T23:51
By Zenobia
at 2020-02-19T20:25
at 2020-02-19T20:25
By Sarah
at 2020-02-24T08:17
at 2020-02-24T08:17
By Elvira
at 2020-02-28T11:09
at 2020-02-28T11:09
By Skylar Davis
at 2020-02-29T04:03
at 2020-02-29T04:03
By Victoria
at 2020-03-03T01:30
at 2020-03-03T01:30
By Jake
at 2020-03-06T12:03
at 2020-03-06T12:03
By Susan
at 2020-03-10T02:07
at 2020-03-10T02:07
By Tom
at 2020-03-13T16:30
at 2020-03-13T16:30
By Zanna
at 2020-03-15T04:18
at 2020-03-15T04:18
By Daniel
at 2020-03-19T09:47
at 2020-03-19T09:47
By Dora
at 2020-03-20T03:10
at 2020-03-20T03:10
By William
at 2020-03-25T01:40
at 2020-03-25T01:40
By Ida
at 2020-03-28T16:12
at 2020-03-28T16:12
By Yuri
at 2020-03-29T05:26
at 2020-03-29T05:26
By Zanna
at 2020-03-31T23:59
at 2020-03-31T23:59
By Joe
at 2020-04-04T16:43
at 2020-04-04T16:43
By Tom
at 2020-04-06T11:16
at 2020-04-06T11:16
By Lydia
at 2020-04-10T01:57
at 2020-04-10T01:57
By Sandy
at 2020-04-11T19:52
at 2020-04-11T19:52
By Oliver
at 2020-04-12T06:39
at 2020-04-12T06:39
By Joe
at 2020-04-15T02:59
at 2020-04-15T02:59
By Hedda
at 2020-04-16T05:25
at 2020-04-16T05:25
By Anonymous
at 2020-04-18T14:07
at 2020-04-18T14:07
By Agnes
at 2020-04-22T14:54
at 2020-04-22T14:54
By Lucy
at 2020-04-23T19:47
at 2020-04-23T19:47
By Jacky
at 2020-04-26T07:57
at 2020-04-26T07:57
By Puput
at 2020-04-26T11:55
at 2020-04-26T11:55
By Lucy
at 2020-04-28T06:16
at 2020-04-28T06:16
By Frederic
at 2020-04-28T18:21
at 2020-04-28T18:21
By Carolina Franco
at 2020-04-30T02:09
at 2020-04-30T02:09
By Carolina Franco
at 2020-05-03T15:58
at 2020-05-03T15:58
By Hamiltion
at 2020-05-07T10:55
at 2020-05-07T10:55
By Wallis
at 2020-05-08T11:18
at 2020-05-08T11:18
By Franklin
at 2020-05-10T07:48
at 2020-05-10T07:48
By Tom
at 2020-05-12T14:35
at 2020-05-12T14:35
By Oscar
at 2020-05-13T14:16
at 2020-05-13T14:16
By Kumar
at 2020-05-14T13:35
at 2020-05-14T13:35
By Barb Cronin
at 2020-05-14T20:13
at 2020-05-14T20:13
By Oliver
at 2020-05-16T09:37
at 2020-05-16T09:37
By John
at 2020-05-20T14:45
at 2020-05-20T14:45
By Carol
at 2020-05-22T07:59
at 2020-05-22T07:59
By Suhail Hany
at 2020-05-27T04:10
at 2020-05-27T04:10
By Enid
at 2020-05-27T23:14
at 2020-05-27T23:14
By Rae
at 2020-06-01T01:55
at 2020-06-01T01:55
By Robert
at 2020-06-05T22:16
at 2020-06-05T22:16
By Aaliyah
at 2020-06-08T10:48
at 2020-06-08T10:48
By Kristin
at 2020-06-08T17:15
at 2020-06-08T17:15
By Elvira
at 2020-06-10T21:52
at 2020-06-10T21:52
By Caroline
at 2020-06-14T14:28
at 2020-06-14T14:28
By Xanthe
at 2020-06-17T08:51
at 2020-06-17T08:51
By Rae
at 2020-06-21T21:06
at 2020-06-21T21:06
By Franklin
at 2020-06-22T17:12
at 2020-06-22T17:12
By Skylar Davis
at 2020-06-23T03:06
at 2020-06-23T03:06
By Ethan
at 2020-06-23T10:25
at 2020-06-23T10:25
By James
at 2020-06-28T06:41
at 2020-06-28T06:41
By Elizabeth
at 2020-06-30T21:02
at 2020-06-30T21:02
By Annie
at 2020-07-02T02:27
at 2020-07-02T02:27
By Rosalind
at 2020-07-06T15:50
at 2020-07-06T15:50
By Jake
at 2020-07-08T09:58
at 2020-07-08T09:58
By Christine
at 2020-07-10T04:17
at 2020-07-10T04:17
By Skylar Davis
at 2020-07-13T20:25
at 2020-07-13T20:25
By Genevieve
at 2020-07-17T06:24
at 2020-07-17T06:24
By Isabella
at 2020-07-20T01:20
at 2020-07-20T01:20
By Carolina Franco
at 2020-07-23T22:00
at 2020-07-23T22:00
By Harry
at 2020-07-26T00:38
at 2020-07-26T00:38
By Catherine
at 2020-07-29T06:26
at 2020-07-29T06:26
By Queena
at 2020-08-01T22:13
at 2020-08-01T22:13
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2020-08-03T11:20
at 2020-08-03T11:20
By Daph Bay
at 2020-08-07T22:06
at 2020-08-07T22:06
By Kama
at 2020-08-08T01:15
at 2020-08-08T01:15
By Kyle
at 2020-08-10T23:49
at 2020-08-10T23:49
By Kelly
at 2020-08-14T11:05
at 2020-08-14T11:05
By Hedy
at 2020-08-18T17:33
at 2020-08-18T17:33
By Barb Cronin
at 2020-08-22T15:28
at 2020-08-22T15:28
By Connor
at 2020-08-23T07:31
at 2020-08-23T07:31
By Candice
at 2020-08-27T12:37
at 2020-08-27T12:37
By Caitlin
at 2020-08-27T23:22
at 2020-08-27T23:22
By Odelette
at 2020-08-29T15:49
at 2020-08-29T15:49
By Caroline
at 2020-08-30T05:22
at 2020-08-30T05:22
By Brianna
at 2020-09-04T03:28
at 2020-09-04T03:28
By Victoria
at 2020-09-05T05:17
at 2020-09-05T05:17
By Jessica
at 2020-09-09T08:51
at 2020-09-09T08:51
By Skylar Davis
at 2020-09-09T16:14
at 2020-09-09T16:14
By Iris
at 2020-09-14T01:31
at 2020-09-14T01:31
By Donna
at 2020-09-18T12:26
at 2020-09-18T12:26
By Zora
at 2020-09-22T03:17
at 2020-09-22T03:17
By Hedwig
at 2020-09-24T13:07
at 2020-09-24T13:07
By Bethany
at 2020-09-25T05:36
at 2020-09-25T05:36
By Kama
at 2020-09-26T05:30
at 2020-09-26T05:30
By Jack
at 2020-09-26T16:13
at 2020-09-26T16:13
By Kelly
at 2020-09-30T13:48
at 2020-09-30T13:48
By Ingrid
at 2020-10-01T11:32
at 2020-10-01T11:32
By Lydia
at 2020-10-05T10:04
at 2020-10-05T10:04
By Harry
at 2020-10-07T11:53
at 2020-10-07T11:53
By Mia
at 2020-10-09T02:20
at 2020-10-09T02:20
By Adele
at 2020-10-11T13:23
at 2020-10-11T13:23
By Callum
at 2020-10-15T03:49
at 2020-10-15T03:49
By Xanthe
at 2020-10-16T07:02
at 2020-10-16T07:02
By Robert
at 2020-10-20T13:39
at 2020-10-20T13:39
By Edith
at 2020-10-24T07:39
at 2020-10-24T07:39
By Doris
at 2020-10-26T06:05
at 2020-10-26T06:05
By Valerie
at 2020-10-31T02:34
at 2020-10-31T02:34
By Xanthe
at 2020-11-04T13:51
at 2020-11-04T13:51
By Damian
at 2020-11-06T22:03
at 2020-11-06T22:03
By Enid
at 2020-11-09T21:04
at 2020-11-09T21:04
By Yedda
at 2020-11-10T19:34
at 2020-11-10T19:34
By Kristin
at 2020-11-15T14:20
at 2020-11-15T14:20
By Queena
at 2020-11-20T10:28
at 2020-11-20T10:28
By Rachel
at 2020-11-21T18:56
at 2020-11-21T18:56
By Megan
at 2020-11-23T01:10
at 2020-11-23T01:10
By Joe
at 2020-11-26T16:26
at 2020-11-26T16:26
By Ingrid
at 2020-11-28T16:32
at 2020-11-28T16:32
By Victoria
at 2020-11-30T04:20
at 2020-11-30T04:20
By Belly
at 2020-12-02T04:28
at 2020-12-02T04:28
By Cara
at 2020-12-04T15:55
at 2020-12-04T15:55
By Rae
at 2020-12-08T04:28
at 2020-12-08T04:28
Related Posts
世界5347
By Kristin
at 2020-01-14T22:19
at 2020-01-14T22:19
搭國產車喝溫開水 百億身價林恩平生活就
By Edwina
at 2020-01-14T21:54
at 2020-01-14T21:54
3481 群創 (附南茂哥對帳單)
By Kyle
at 2020-01-14T21:15
at 2020-01-14T21:15
美股投資人信心滿載、Put/Call Ratio創20
By Frederic
at 2020-01-14T20:51
at 2020-01-14T20:51
美股未來還能升!專家:現在退場減持是
By Robert
at 2020-01-14T20:22
at 2020-01-14T20:22