彭淮南總裁14年 替國庫賺2.67兆 - 投資
By Christine
at 2012-08-23T03:16
at 2012-08-23T03:16
Table of Contents
好像很多人認為
假設彭總裁不把利率降得這麼低
不對新台幣阻升
台灣人購買力就會變得更強
事實是怎麼樣
看看廣場協議後的日本吧
今天台灣產業的競爭力
人民的富有程度能跟日本相比嗎
日本的外銷還有技術做為支撐
以代工體系為主的台灣
當更多品質漸漸追上台灣
成本卻更加低廉的國家出現
成本更加高昂的台灣有多少競爭力在哪我想大家都看得到
新台幣現在在國際金融市場的價值在哪裡?
因為台灣出口產業不斷的把在海外賺的美金轉換新台幣
因為有這樣的需求
新台幣才會有價值
一旦台灣出口產業大幅衰退
貿易不要說變成逆差 就算打平好了
最基本的供需法則
出口商對本幣的需求降低
而進口仍然不斷須要把台幣換成美金向國外購買原物料
你覺得台幣能夠維持現在的價值?
還是台灣有什麼地方很吸引外資不斷來台投資?
台股那些投資科技 出口產業的外資不要跑就謝天謝地了
何況這時候不只是台幣供需的問題
出口公司轉盈為虧
伴隨的就是減薪 無薪休假 裁員
人民所得下降 甚至進入無所得的狀況
跟著就是消費力降低連帶影響內需市場
惡性循環的通貨緊縮就開始了
這種時候別說什麼購買力沒有增加了
是購買力還剩下多少!
連房地產的價值也是一落千丈
除了美國
沒有一個出口不強的國家有辦法維持強勢貨幣
到時候USD/TWD可能就不是30 31 32 33
國際熱錢的嗅覺是很靈敏的
當一個國家經濟出現問題的時候
才防禦匯率的難度可就跟平常不同了
不要以為亞洲金融風暴我們沒事
以後就不會有問題
看問題不能只看表面
央行或許壓制了台幣的升值空間
但是長遠看來
他卻大幅降低將來台幣大幅貶值的可能性
現在短期內的阻升
其實是阻止大幅貶值
可能有人還會說
日本出口衰退這麼多
日幣還不是持續升值
那日本人民的購買力有因此增強嗎?
因為日幣升值所以日本的消費增加了?
更別說內需市場遠輸日本
原物料比日本更稀缺的台灣了
何況日幣是這幾年才又回到歷史高水位
當初泡沫化之後1990年代中期日本可是經歷了貨幣快速貶值
如果台幣也出現這樣的狀況
那不知道各位認為到時候又會怎麼說
一個國家沒辦法依靠產業創造財富
想靠著貨幣政策一步登天讓人民富有
只能說
你想得太簡單了
若要說政策真的有問題
主要也是政府的問題
很多人說
台灣實質所得一直沒有增加
沒錯 實質所得=名目所得/物價平減指數
其中央行能控制的只有物價指數(或者有人說通貨膨脹)
台灣的通貨膨脹一直控制在合理的範圍之內
看看狀況跟我們最接近的亞洲四小龍其他三國的通貨膨脹水準
更別說新興國家 金磚四國了
台灣實際上都沒有成長的是名目所得
這才是造成實質所得 購買力無法提升的關鍵問題
名目所得可不是央行貨幣政策所能控制的
這是政府與資方的問題
很多人不怪罪魁禍首
然後把責任丟給通膨控制得宜的央行??
多年來不管藍綠執政
都沒有做好推行有利於產業發展的政策
沒有引導好國家發展的方向
一系列有利於資方不利於勞方的法案
勞工 受薪階層沒有得到應有的保障與照顧
從最基礎的教育方針就沒有做好
怪罪於中央銀行實在是最沒道理的
--
假設彭總裁不把利率降得這麼低
不對新台幣阻升
台灣人購買力就會變得更強
事實是怎麼樣
看看廣場協議後的日本吧
今天台灣產業的競爭力
人民的富有程度能跟日本相比嗎
日本的外銷還有技術做為支撐
以代工體系為主的台灣
當更多品質漸漸追上台灣
成本卻更加低廉的國家出現
成本更加高昂的台灣有多少競爭力在哪我想大家都看得到
新台幣現在在國際金融市場的價值在哪裡?
因為台灣出口產業不斷的把在海外賺的美金轉換新台幣
因為有這樣的需求
新台幣才會有價值
一旦台灣出口產業大幅衰退
貿易不要說變成逆差 就算打平好了
最基本的供需法則
出口商對本幣的需求降低
而進口仍然不斷須要把台幣換成美金向國外購買原物料
你覺得台幣能夠維持現在的價值?
還是台灣有什麼地方很吸引外資不斷來台投資?
台股那些投資科技 出口產業的外資不要跑就謝天謝地了
何況這時候不只是台幣供需的問題
出口公司轉盈為虧
伴隨的就是減薪 無薪休假 裁員
人民所得下降 甚至進入無所得的狀況
跟著就是消費力降低連帶影響內需市場
惡性循環的通貨緊縮就開始了
這種時候別說什麼購買力沒有增加了
是購買力還剩下多少!
連房地產的價值也是一落千丈
除了美國
沒有一個出口不強的國家有辦法維持強勢貨幣
到時候USD/TWD可能就不是30 31 32 33
國際熱錢的嗅覺是很靈敏的
當一個國家經濟出現問題的時候
才防禦匯率的難度可就跟平常不同了
不要以為亞洲金融風暴我們沒事
以後就不會有問題
看問題不能只看表面
央行或許壓制了台幣的升值空間
但是長遠看來
他卻大幅降低將來台幣大幅貶值的可能性
現在短期內的阻升
其實是阻止大幅貶值
可能有人還會說
日本出口衰退這麼多
日幣還不是持續升值
那日本人民的購買力有因此增強嗎?
因為日幣升值所以日本的消費增加了?
更別說內需市場遠輸日本
原物料比日本更稀缺的台灣了
何況日幣是這幾年才又回到歷史高水位
當初泡沫化之後1990年代中期日本可是經歷了貨幣快速貶值
如果台幣也出現這樣的狀況
那不知道各位認為到時候又會怎麼說
一個國家沒辦法依靠產業創造財富
想靠著貨幣政策一步登天讓人民富有
只能說
你想得太簡單了
若要說政策真的有問題
主要也是政府的問題
很多人說
台灣實質所得一直沒有增加
沒錯 實質所得=名目所得/物價平減指數
其中央行能控制的只有物價指數(或者有人說通貨膨脹)
台灣的通貨膨脹一直控制在合理的範圍之內
看看狀況跟我們最接近的亞洲四小龍其他三國的通貨膨脹水準
更別說新興國家 金磚四國了
台灣實際上都沒有成長的是名目所得
這才是造成實質所得 購買力無法提升的關鍵問題
名目所得可不是央行貨幣政策所能控制的
這是政府與資方的問題
很多人不怪罪魁禍首
然後把責任丟給通膨控制得宜的央行??
多年來不管藍綠執政
都沒有做好推行有利於產業發展的政策
沒有引導好國家發展的方向
一系列有利於資方不利於勞方的法案
勞工 受薪階層沒有得到應有的保障與照顧
從最基礎的教育方針就沒有做好
怪罪於中央銀行實在是最沒道理的
--
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投資
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at 2012-08-22T15:17
at 2012-08-22T15:17
三個孩子的家庭 該如何理財呢
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at 2012-08-22T13:40
at 2012-08-22T13:40