平凡人的一生就是一輩子存錢養房嗎 - 投資

By Heather
at 2023-03-03T19:15
at 2023-03-03T19:15
Table of Contents
在房版發大概會被眾房蟲房仲噓所以轉來這
請這個的板駐板房蟲們手下留情....XD
400萬現金 單筆投入0050 + 每月3萬定期定額
投資時間: 2003/07/01 - 2023/03/03
總投資成本:7,110,000 台幣 + 400 萬
資產終值:20,417,672 台幣 + 400 萬 *1.055^20 = 3208萬
年化報酬率:5.50%
結論:不要小看複利的力量
資料來源
https://www.moneydj.com/etf/x/basic/basic0018.xdjhtm?etfid=0050.tw
另外在初期累積資產階段,其實不用租到3萬的房子,
租小一點、便宜一點,一開始可以投多一點到股市裡面去複利;
這樣資產增幅會更大 (每月定期定額改投4萬,資產終值 3888萬)
租房擁有的彈性也是優點,哪裡有薪水更高更好的工作,
直接跳槽過去找地方租就好,不會被房子綁在某個地方;
還可以租在上班地點附近,上下班免去通勤時間又不用塞車超爽Der;
另外真的想要創業,也不會被房貸卡住金流。
當然如果工作穩定,覺得可以做十年以上,
買個房自住也無妨,但買房是一生重大的決定,
真的需要再買而不是人云亦云。
※ [本文轉錄自 home-sale 看板 #1a0P7oPJ ]
作者: snaken (snaken) 看板: home-sale
標題: Re: [閒聊] 平凡人的一生就是一輩子存錢養房嗎
時間: Fri Mar 3 14:21:36 2023
雖然看起來像是廢文,但還是忍不住想要回一下
先做一下幾個基本的假設
你現在手頭上有400萬,
且每個月有 6萬 可動用現金,以面臨著兩個抉擇
a. 買個2000萬的房子,然後6萬都拿去繳房貸
b. 花個3萬租房子,剩下3萬定期定額丟入0050
你會上來問這個問題,
我相信要叫你把400萬拿去買任何債卷或是股票應該都不可能
所以當作你跟我老目一樣都擺定存
那我們開著後照鏡來看看,如果你的兩個策略執行15年會長怎樣。
先看b.
0050我們抓2008/1/2 ~ 2022/12/30,股息再投入,手續費為0
(綠角流的標準做法)
https://i.imgur.com/eWtYCFz.png

到期之後,你的資產總值約為1193萬,IRR是5.39%
有投入房子的假設就複雜一點了,我們假設房價2000萬,30年8成2%
這應該是標準的做法。
由於我們要計算IRR,所以先給你一個觀念:
買房自住視同租給自己
你的每個月租金要設定多少不影響期末現金,只影響IRR的計算
因此,這邊我們設定3萬作為你的每月租金,年稅金我抓1萬
賣出時的房價大家一定各說各話,所以我會列幾個版本,分別是
1. 2000賣出 (0%)
2. 2500賣出 (1.5%)
3. 3000賣出 (2.7%)
括弧後為15年的平均年增率,當然如果你相信這個數字是負的,
那你一定是對的
期末現金扣掉一開始400萬的頭款以及 IRR 計算後結果如下
1. 2000w: 682w / 1.17%
2. 2500w: 1182w / 4.40%
3. 3000w: 1682w / 6.69%
https://i.imgur.com/9hI64DX.png



都可以年收300了,自己判斷哪個策略適合自己。
投資策略都不難,難的都是跟自己的情緒對抗而已。
順便附上計算房屋IRR的excel 表,有需要的可以自己下載來用。
這都最基本的excel 公式而已。
https://reurl.cc/a1G5e4
※ 引述《hesitates (....)》之銘言:
: 從小努力讀書
: 好不容易30多歲也終於拼到年薪300了
: 存了頭期款買房
: 每月房貸5、6萬
: 聽起來還有錢過其他生活
: 但想起來其實不然.........
: 等我退休時
: 這間房也40年屋齡了
: 到時還敢住嗎??
: 到死之前勢必至少再換一次房......
: 而且退休後也沒收入了
: 所以在我買第一間房之後
: 除了繼續付第一間的房貸
: 也要開始存第二間房的錢了 (第二間頭期款+貸款,或第二間退休房一次付清)
: 等於要有付2間房貸的能力
: 一個月10幾萬就去了
: 覺得就算年薪300
: 日子其實還是過得很吃緊
: 一輩子就是存錢養房當房奴
: 有人有這樣的感嘆嗎 !?
--
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