幫散戶統計每日輸贏 - 期貨

By Iris
at 2013-05-02T13:35
at 2013-05-02T13:35
Table of Contents
: 如果你真心的建立一個信仰並且去實踐它,應該不是壞事。
: 期貨市場很迷人,但也很危險。
: 迷人是因為他是零和遊戲,危險是因為他是少數贏家的遊戲。
: 人都有自我能力高估與低估環境風險的天性,這也講到爛了,
: 但是...期貨市場還是很多人前仆後繼的進入。
: 台灣研究期貨市場的散戶文章很少,一方面行為財務學雖然已經得過若貝爾獎
說到行為財務學裡面 有個例子舉的很好
假設你今天做一份考卷時 你把你不會的題目先圈起來
後來老師改完考卷發下來了
這時 大部分的人 自己在檢討考券的時候只會檢討圈起來的題目中有錯的
至於其它對的題目都不需要檢討-人性會認為那本來就是該對的
我相信很多人都有這樣的狀況
這是行為財務學探討的其中一個偏差
其實整個領域探討的很多 很多偏差都會增加無法預期的風險
如果有閒暇之餘可以多研究多看
就算是程式交易也有幫助 程式交易人性的偏差也不會少
市場完完全全反映這些行為 而且我認為這是很重要的課題
等我六月有空以後 我再整理出一個表分享出來好了
最後 我還是想再說一句 那些說心裡面 心態面不重要的人 請問你拿過諾貝爾嗎
人家做過多少研究 取過多少樣本 結論從來就不是 "技術好 心理面也會好"
結論都是-技術再好 心理層面的影響都有可能讓賺錢變賠錢
: 但是在財務領域妾身為名。台灣的教授通常也不會鼓勵學生去做。
: 資料難以取得是一個原因
: 想成為期貨的贏家,不單單是自己技術的勝算多少,
: 也要考量如何在平凡中成為不平凡的機率。
: 這個平凡的數字有一篇論文"散戶處置效果之研究"可以參考,請自行至論文網查詢。
: 在2004~2005將近500個交易日,9494個交易帳戶中
: 可以存活超過一年的僅只有8.5%,
: 而可以存活超過400個交易日的僅只有1%。
: 更有將近6成在半年內陣亡。
: 以上是在2004~2005的分配,但時空移轉,我認為這樣的分配差不到哪裡去。
: 因為期貨是零和遊戲,所以1%的贏家可以賺(分配)99%輸家的錢。
: 因此期貨交易真的很迷人。
: 因此如何期許自己在平凡中成為不平凡,機率真的很低。
: 在茫茫市場中建立信仰很重要,但別以為信仰的代價很便宜。
: 往往都要輸大錢之後才能找到心中的信仰。
: 信仰可以是 當沖、可以是留倉,可以是順勢,可以是逆勢
: 每個市場都有它的特性,就像台股的線跟SP500的線就不太一樣。
: 講起來像是廢話,每一把槍的膛線都不同,
: 我們可以觀察打出去的子彈就可以知道是哪把槍打出去的
: 市場也是。
: 每個市場有它特殊的紋路,每天的震幅大小會影響後面天數的振幅大小與表現
: 因次若要提高交易的獲利性,不該是隨便的隨機應變。
: 若形容交易要像上班一樣,或許很多人不認同。
: 但你若要交易每天五小時這樣10年以上就要像上班一樣。
: 所有用的方法不是去證明會賺錢,而是要去證明他不會輸錢。
: 期貨交易絕大部分是一段一段作,因此你可以說是trade方向,
: 但吾寧可說是trade波動
: 波動有頻率與震幅,理工科的大可有許多理論去分析。
: 財金統計的至少有GARCH可以去分析解釋。
: 如果GARCH說明金融市場波動有叢集性(volatility clustering),
: 而你也相信他,
: PS:我私心的認為你應該要相信,否則可以換你得諾貝爾獎。
: 就應該從這點出發去研究交易策略,可以提高交易勝率
: 分享我的信仰
: 1.我不相信分析師的話,除非我自己算過
: 2.我不相信技術指標,看技術指標不如看價格變動。
: 3.我相信成交量對價格的影響
: 4.我相信波動對未來價格的影響。
: 5.GARCH為目前有效率的分析波動工具。
: 條條大路通羅馬,我的信仰你不用遵循也不用參考。
: 每個人都需要適合自己的方法。
: 我曾經嘗試宣揚的信仰,但就像宗教戰爭一樣,唉~~~
: 不要誤信邪教就好。
: 祝各位賺大錢。
: 散戶為驅動市場源源不絕的燃料~~~
--
: 期貨市場很迷人,但也很危險。
: 迷人是因為他是零和遊戲,危險是因為他是少數贏家的遊戲。
: 人都有自我能力高估與低估環境風險的天性,這也講到爛了,
: 但是...期貨市場還是很多人前仆後繼的進入。
: 台灣研究期貨市場的散戶文章很少,一方面行為財務學雖然已經得過若貝爾獎
說到行為財務學裡面 有個例子舉的很好
假設你今天做一份考卷時 你把你不會的題目先圈起來
後來老師改完考卷發下來了
這時 大部分的人 自己在檢討考券的時候只會檢討圈起來的題目中有錯的
至於其它對的題目都不需要檢討-人性會認為那本來就是該對的
我相信很多人都有這樣的狀況
這是行為財務學探討的其中一個偏差
其實整個領域探討的很多 很多偏差都會增加無法預期的風險
如果有閒暇之餘可以多研究多看
就算是程式交易也有幫助 程式交易人性的偏差也不會少
市場完完全全反映這些行為 而且我認為這是很重要的課題
等我六月有空以後 我再整理出一個表分享出來好了
最後 我還是想再說一句 那些說心裡面 心態面不重要的人 請問你拿過諾貝爾嗎
人家做過多少研究 取過多少樣本 結論從來就不是 "技術好 心理面也會好"
結論都是-技術再好 心理層面的影響都有可能讓賺錢變賠錢
: 但是在財務領域妾身為名。台灣的教授通常也不會鼓勵學生去做。
: 資料難以取得是一個原因
: 想成為期貨的贏家,不單單是自己技術的勝算多少,
: 也要考量如何在平凡中成為不平凡的機率。
: 這個平凡的數字有一篇論文"散戶處置效果之研究"可以參考,請自行至論文網查詢。
: 在2004~2005將近500個交易日,9494個交易帳戶中
: 可以存活超過一年的僅只有8.5%,
: 而可以存活超過400個交易日的僅只有1%。
: 更有將近6成在半年內陣亡。
: 以上是在2004~2005的分配,但時空移轉,我認為這樣的分配差不到哪裡去。
: 因為期貨是零和遊戲,所以1%的贏家可以賺(分配)99%輸家的錢。
: 因此期貨交易真的很迷人。
: 因此如何期許自己在平凡中成為不平凡,機率真的很低。
: 在茫茫市場中建立信仰很重要,但別以為信仰的代價很便宜。
: 往往都要輸大錢之後才能找到心中的信仰。
: 信仰可以是 當沖、可以是留倉,可以是順勢,可以是逆勢
: 每個市場都有它的特性,就像台股的線跟SP500的線就不太一樣。
: 講起來像是廢話,每一把槍的膛線都不同,
: 我們可以觀察打出去的子彈就可以知道是哪把槍打出去的
: 市場也是。
: 每個市場有它特殊的紋路,每天的震幅大小會影響後面天數的振幅大小與表現
: 因次若要提高交易的獲利性,不該是隨便的隨機應變。
: 若形容交易要像上班一樣,或許很多人不認同。
: 但你若要交易每天五小時這樣10年以上就要像上班一樣。
: 所有用的方法不是去證明會賺錢,而是要去證明他不會輸錢。
: 期貨交易絕大部分是一段一段作,因此你可以說是trade方向,
: 但吾寧可說是trade波動
: 波動有頻率與震幅,理工科的大可有許多理論去分析。
: 財金統計的至少有GARCH可以去分析解釋。
: 如果GARCH說明金融市場波動有叢集性(volatility clustering),
: 而你也相信他,
: PS:我私心的認為你應該要相信,否則可以換你得諾貝爾獎。
: 就應該從這點出發去研究交易策略,可以提高交易勝率
: 分享我的信仰
: 1.我不相信分析師的話,除非我自己算過
: 2.我不相信技術指標,看技術指標不如看價格變動。
: 3.我相信成交量對價格的影響
: 4.我相信波動對未來價格的影響。
: 5.GARCH為目前有效率的分析波動工具。
: 條條大路通羅馬,我的信仰你不用遵循也不用參考。
: 每個人都需要適合自己的方法。
: 我曾經嘗試宣揚的信仰,但就像宗教戰爭一樣,唉~~~
: 不要誤信邪教就好。
: 祝各位賺大錢。
: 散戶為驅動市場源源不絕的燃料~~~
--
Tags:
期貨
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