川普為何怕中國? - 股票

By Una
at 2018-06-24T11:17
at 2018-06-24T11:17
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20180624000419-260209
2.原文內容:
川普為何怕中國?
2018年06月24日 04:10 工商時報 于國欽
黃遵憲《登巴黎鐵塔》詩:「拔地崛然起,崚崢矗百丈,自非假羽翼,孰能躡履上,…我
從下界來,小大頓變相,緬昔百年役,裂地爭霸王,…即今正六帝,各負天下壯,…扶搖
九萬里,一笑吾其儻。」
■離騷:「鷙鳥之不群兮,自前世而固然。何方圓之能周兮,夫執異道而相安。屈心而抑
志兮,忍尤而攘詬。伏清白以死直兮,固前聖之所厚。」
拿破崙說:「中國是一頭沉睡的獅子,千萬別叫醒他,否則世界將為之震動。」儘管有人
認為拿破崙沒說過這句話,但我們只要看一下近年統計,便會驚嘆此話確有先見之明,至
少如今已震動到川普了。
被震動到的川普政府,於日前公布301貿易報復清單,從7月6日起自中國大陸進口的逾800
項產品將加徵關稅,美中貿易紛爭自年初以來忽戰忽和,川普忽喜忽怒,其對中國崛起之
恐懼不安,已溢於言表。
中國崛起聽久了,不加深究也許不會那麼在意,但川普是個生意人,對數據有天生的敏感
度,其害怕不是沒有原因的。我們根據國際貨幣基金(IMF)的資料稍加計算可以發現,
自1978年大陸改革開放後,大陸經濟已取得超乎想像的成就。
中美GDP差距 急速縮小
1980年代大陸的國內生產毛額(GDP)少得可憐,美國是大陸的13.2倍,但隨著開放投資
,加入世界貿易組織(WTO),大陸成為世界工廠,進而成為世界市場,大陸的GDP於2007
年超越德國、於2010年追上日本,與美國的差距更急速縮小,2011~2017年大陸平均每年
GDP已超過10兆美元,美國領先的幅度也降至1.7倍。
大陸經濟成長的速度極為驚人,依國際貨幣基金估計,再過5年大陸的GDP就要超過21兆美
元,與美國已平分秋色。雖然美國企業自大陸市場開放中已獲得巨大利益,但眼見大陸崛
起,縱橫半世紀的獨霸局面岌岌可危,川普豈能無懼?
於是自川普上任以來,上窮碧落下黃泉,採行了一波波貿易報復手段,可笑的是,此次
301清單不僅涵蓋大陸對其順差的產品,就連對其逆差的半導體也被瞄準,其欲阻止大陸
經濟發展的心態已不言可喻。
讓中國加入WTO 美國後悔了
遙想20年前,柯林頓政府支持中國加入WTO,貿易代表白茜芙還曾引述離騷:「何方圓之
能周兮,夫執異道而相安」,以1930年代保護主義釀成大蕭條,呼籲國會只有把中國納入
多邊貿易體系才是正途,此一開放的胸襟及文化的涵養,於今日川普政府已不復見,尤有
甚者,自年初以來川普更屢次表示當年支持中國加入WTO是錯誤的決定,其思想體系之紊
亂,實令人難以理解。
19世紀末,清廷外交官黃遵憲眼見美、歐工業發達,經濟繁榮,中國卻積弱不振,極為感
慨,遂於甲午戰敗後籌資辦《時務報》,盼以言救世,特聘梁啟超擔任主筆,他在贈予梁
任公的詩裡寫道:「列國縱橫六七帝,斯文興廢五千年,黃人捧日撐空起,要放光明照大
千。」
黃遵憲一百年前的夢想,今天已部分實現,中國的經濟如今已拔地而起,於全球有舉足輕
重的地位,這可算是「黃人捧日撐空起」的實現,但環視今日的中國,與「要放光明照大
千」仍有一段距離,須知,要讓美、歐折服,除了經濟實力,文化素養更為重要,經濟成
就也許2、30年可成,文化的風行草偃勢必得花更長的時間,這一關過不了,仍不算大國
。
(工商時報)
3.心得/評論:
川普為何怕中國?
這篇有深入解析!值得一讀!
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