小摩挺金融 首選富邦金 - 股票
By Madame
at 2019-06-01T14:40
at 2019-06-01T14:40
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://bit.ly/2MB4W03
2.原文內容:
https://imgur.com/tRV2Xsg.jpg
摩根大通最新報告表示,今年台灣金融股仍將由銀行股衝鋒,不過在壽險股和銀行股評價
差異已大,且壽險股獲利沒預期差,看好類股止跌反彈,首選獲利王富邦金(2881),並
將中壽、台新金升至「加碼」。
摩根大通此次重申銀行股優於壽險股,但在跌深價值浮現下,看好壽險股也有發揮,另外
在銀行股,同步調降第一金至「減碼」,主要不看好評價偏高,獲利也有隱憂。
摩根大通證券台灣金融產業分析師黃聖翔表示,今年台灣銀行股大幅跑贏壽險股,足見銀
行股基本面獲得認同。受惠台商回流、貿易戰轉移基地及政府擴大建設,預期銀行業貸款
和手續費收入穩定成長,今年未扣除風險準備金的獲利表現(PPOP),將比去年平均成長
10%。
相較下,壽險業成長性受到質疑,不過黃聖翔分析,前四月市場反而沒有想像差,壽險股
獲利僅較去年同期高峰減少三成多,比最壞情況好。
另方面,隨壽險股與銀行股的評價差距來到長期高點,凸顯外界對壽險股過度悲觀,不久
到來的除權息旺季,可望推升壽險獲利;摩根大通預期,兩類金控評價不會進一步擴大。
就金管會政策,不論是限制海外債或債券ETF投資,乃至未來才上路的IFRS 17,摩根大通
認為仍多多少少帶來影響,不過危機也是轉機,政策引導台灣壽險朝更國際化、更嚴謹的
制度轉型,而且多數壽險提到風險可控,反映台灣壽險還是有硬底子。
獲利王富邦金營運穩定,長期獲得多家外資看好,摩根大通將其列為壽險股首選,其次是
中壽和台新金,分別有大陸事業趨穩及整體體質改善的好消息,獲升評至「加碼」,最新
目標價各30元、15.8元。
其他外資方面,有大和、瑞信等日前考量IFRS 17等風險,調降國泰金、富邦金目標價,
各重申「加碼」或「中立」;持續悲觀看壽險金控的花旗,轉推薦首選玉山金;昨(31)
日玉山金強攻27.4元,一舉衝破花旗給的27.3元目標價。
3.心得/評論:
(1) 小摩 : 富邦金-->54元,中壽-->30元,台新金-->15.8元,第一金-->17.40元。
(2) 可以吃小摩豆腐,順勢操作。
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