央行大降息將導致資金亂竄 房市恐暴衝 - 股票

By Thomas
at 2020-03-16T16:15
at 2020-03-16T16:15
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:https://reurl.cc/L3dnQx
2.原文內容:
美國聯準會(FED)今日再度意外降息,將聯邦基金利率一口氣調降4碼,至0%至0.25%
,近乎零利率,同時也啟動高達7000億美元的量化寬鬆(QE)計畫。由於美國降息幅度大
,台灣央行難以避免採取跟進的降息措施,對此房仲全聯會榮譽理事長李同榮則做出警告
,呼籲政府慎防資金亂竄,避免房市暴衝。
根據《經濟日報》報導,李同榮直言,國內房市能在多頭市場10多年後軟著陸,主要支撐
房市的平穩力量來自於資金充裕與利息偏低,如今疫情蔓延,房市表現暫時受到壓抑,央
行若是採大幅降息措施因應,雖然能夠刺激民間消費與投資,但若充斥的游資沒有多元投
資管道舒解,將會大量流入股市與房市。
根據主計總處預估,2020年超額儲蓄率將彈升至13.55%,高於前2年水準逾2兆元,顯示
國內閒置資金仍高,加上租稅大赦後持續回流的巨額資金,若是沒有適當投資管道,資金
將會充斥到泛濫成災,而李同榮也預測,全球QE降息的影響層面可能會持續1到2年,並對
台灣房市有4大點影響,包含:
一、房市交易量短期內回溫:中古屋交易量因疫情影響,換屋族群暫時觀望,降息有助市
場信心恢復,4月起交易量將持續穩中帶堅,今年全年交易量就會維持7%以上的成長。
二、工商用土地價格將會爆衝:近年開發商土地庫存較低,自去年房價開始回溫,建商獵
地積極,土融屢創新高,在資金充斥利率偏低狀態下,獵地搶地風潮再起,尤其工商用地
之價格難防爆衝。
三、商辦、廠辦市場先蹲後跳大反彈:去年商辦與廠辦市場持續發燒,全年租金與房價漲
幅近10%之多,預期降息風波將更激勵市場率先擺脫疫情陰影,領軍房市大幅反彈。
四、住宅市場平穩,衝高不宜:在超低利的環境刺激下,難防資金流入住宅市場炒作,導
致房價不理性爆衝,此種跳脫供需基本面的假性需求,對整體住宅房市長線發展將有不利
影響。
3.心得/評論:
把股市的錢都轉入房市,讓台灣房市再次超英趕美,讓世界看見台灣
--
2.原文內容:
美國聯準會(FED)今日再度意外降息,將聯邦基金利率一口氣調降4碼,至0%至0.25%
,近乎零利率,同時也啟動高達7000億美元的量化寬鬆(QE)計畫。由於美國降息幅度大
,台灣央行難以避免採取跟進的降息措施,對此房仲全聯會榮譽理事長李同榮則做出警告
,呼籲政府慎防資金亂竄,避免房市暴衝。
根據《經濟日報》報導,李同榮直言,國內房市能在多頭市場10多年後軟著陸,主要支撐
房市的平穩力量來自於資金充裕與利息偏低,如今疫情蔓延,房市表現暫時受到壓抑,央
行若是採大幅降息措施因應,雖然能夠刺激民間消費與投資,但若充斥的游資沒有多元投
資管道舒解,將會大量流入股市與房市。
根據主計總處預估,2020年超額儲蓄率將彈升至13.55%,高於前2年水準逾2兆元,顯示
國內閒置資金仍高,加上租稅大赦後持續回流的巨額資金,若是沒有適當投資管道,資金
將會充斥到泛濫成災,而李同榮也預測,全球QE降息的影響層面可能會持續1到2年,並對
台灣房市有4大點影響,包含:
一、房市交易量短期內回溫:中古屋交易量因疫情影響,換屋族群暫時觀望,降息有助市
場信心恢復,4月起交易量將持續穩中帶堅,今年全年交易量就會維持7%以上的成長。
二、工商用土地價格將會爆衝:近年開發商土地庫存較低,自去年房價開始回溫,建商獵
地積極,土融屢創新高,在資金充斥利率偏低狀態下,獵地搶地風潮再起,尤其工商用地
之價格難防爆衝。
三、商辦、廠辦市場先蹲後跳大反彈:去年商辦與廠辦市場持續發燒,全年租金與房價漲
幅近10%之多,預期降息風波將更激勵市場率先擺脫疫情陰影,領軍房市大幅反彈。
四、住宅市場平穩,衝高不宜:在超低利的環境刺激下,難防資金流入住宅市場炒作,導
致房價不理性爆衝,此種跳脫供需基本面的假性需求,對整體住宅房市長線發展將有不利
影響。
3.心得/評論:
把股市的錢都轉入房市,讓台灣房市再次超英趕美,讓世界看見台灣
--
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