大盤看法&討論 - 股票

By Robert
at 2014-07-23T17:33
at 2014-07-23T17:33
Table of Contents
颱風天沒開盤,我也來獻醜分析一下大盤好了。
加權日線:http://ppt.cc/UTTS
這是6/20日時我畫的行情預估圖。
先不論我圖中標的位置對不對,或是你看不看的懂,
但是我們能確定的就是,現在是在日線層級(也是週線層級)的主升段。
而圖中有一條紅線,是4/23的高點9022,
這邊會是未來重要的多頭支撐區。
而現在呢? 既然現在是在主升段裡,那未來的修正也將會是主升段的修正波,
所以就出現了7月初走了約一週的三角收斂修正段,
而三角型態的整理,通常會出現在第二波或第四波,
這樣講下去好像會越來越複雜。
直接說大家聽的懂的吧
加權小時線:http://ppt.cc/y6vj
艾略特有幾個鐵則的其中一個是說:
『第四波修正波低點不會與第一波高點重疊』
但是我所用的波浪是會重疊的,但同時也就是說這是一個『多頭敗相』,
不過這個多頭敗象僅僅只是行情轉折的『充份條件』
也就是說,當這個狀況出現時,未來的多頭如果不夠強勁,
那轉折的機率就會變的非常高。
因此我會把現在正在走的多頭規劃為六月中以來的第五波,
未來兩週內如果多頭無法走出強勁的突破走勢,
也就是主升段無法再延伸時,
那很有可能就是要出現更大的修正,
而這個修正的目標我是把他定在4/23的高點9022。
敗相既然出現了,多頭就要提高警覺,但不是叫你現在就放空。
關於原PO的圖一,我是經過各方推論後,
認為圖一的機率較低,所以勇敢做多。
至於波浪理論,我必須說,我以前也覺得這東西應該是唬人的,
但是研究過後,發現他還是可以應用到交易上,
波浪並不是很多人覺得的12345ABC而已。
為什麼已經跌破季線了,我放空被嘎爆....我猜你是空在第四波,後面還有第五波。
為什麼W底之後有時候漲有時候不漲.......要看W底是在A波末端還是C波末端出現。
為什麼KD已經背離了卻一直漲............主升段時出現的背離都是假的。
為什麼...為什麼.....
很多現象不只是可以用波浪解釋,同時也可以讓你避開虧損。
這是我來股板後算是第一次PO波浪文,
之前一直不PO是因為覺得光用文字很不好解釋我真正的想法
(我相信也還是很多人看不懂這篇)
總之,未來兩週,如果有某一天,開盤突破9593後開出『一高出貨盤』
空就對了。
關於一高出貨盤的條件,可以搜尋我的ID,我記得有被M起來。
以下開放噓文> <
: https://www.dropbox.com/s/1nvwxlwvw9ntvd3/TP1.png


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