大摩: 狂通膨 科技股看起來爛到笑 - 股票

1.原文連結：

CNBC

http://goo.gl/KpohVA

Morgan Stanley: Tech stocks look 'downright awful' in market getting
increasingly worried about 'unhinged' inflation

大摩: 市場憂無腦通膨, 科技股似糟透惹

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson downgraded the technology sector and upgraded the
utilities sector, telling clients it may be time to pivot to defensive names.

大麥(大摩的麥克威爾森)降評科技股, 升評公用事業股, 提醒客戶拔草測風向,
快速轉向防禦性類股

"Technology does not look very good. In fact, it looks downright awful," wrote
Mike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley.

大麥: 科技股爛到笑

Stocks are in the middle of a sizable sell-off with the Dow Jones industrial
average falling more than 450 points at its lows on Monday.

DJ崩 大拋售

2.原文內容：

Don't expect stocks to rebound if inflation anxiety continues, according to
Morgan Stanley.

大摩: 憂通膨, 別想彈

With price fears egging on Treasury rates, equities could be in for a
disappointing few months as investors move away from a "buy-the-dip"
mentality.

抄底味濃, 公債恐低迷數月

"When inflation is very low, rising inflation has a positive impact on equity
valuations," wrote Mike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley.
But "rising inflation expectation may no longer be a positive for stocks,
especially if markets start to think inflation is coming 'unhinged.'"

大麥: 低通膨狀態調高有利股權估值, 但若市場認為通膨已太無腦,

調高預期通膨率未必有利股價

Stocks are in the middle of a sizable sell-off with the Dow Jones industrial
average falling more than 450 points Monday, adding to a 3.5 percent decline
the previous week. The S&P 500 fell 1.6 percent on the week's first day of
trade, as the Cboe volatility index (VIX) — considered the market's best
fear gauge — hit multi-year highs.

大賣崩中, VIX 恐慌指數創高

Morgan Stanley says tech stocks look 'downright awful' Morgan Stanley says
tech stocks look 'downright awful'
6 Hours Ago | 00:37
Don't expect stocks to rebound if inflation anxiety continues, according to
Morgan Stanley.

大摩: 科技股爛到笑, 通膨憂慮一日不除, 股價一日不彈

Many strategists have hypothesized that the sell-off is the result of several
months of uninterrupted gains for equity markets, a correction to overpriced
stocks and inflated assets. And with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
climbing roughly 40 basis points since the start of the year, investors may
be in for a bumpy ride.

眾策略分析師估測這次大賣崩是修正資本市場(股市)數月噴噴爽的膨風股跟膨風資產
美10年期公債殖利率噴噴, 投資者看崩

For his part, Wilson is the single most bearish strategist on Wall Street,
with a year-end S&P 500 target of 2,750, just 1 percent above its current
level. He believes it may be time to shift equity exposure toward defensive
stocks and away from cyclical sectors like technology.

大麥是街上最熊(悲觀)的策略分析師, 認為該轉移至防禦性類股, 遠離景氣循環(科技)股

Cyclical stock performance tends to follow the health of the overall economy,
while defensive stock performance is generally resistant to external
pressures.

景氣循環股仰賴整體經濟狀況, 防禦性類股抗壓

"Technology does not look very good. In fact, it looks downright awful,"
Wilson warned in his Monday note. "We noticed the bond proxies —Telecom,
Utilities and Staples--were all significantly underperforming recent
revisions which led us to write a note two weeks ago suggesting these sectors
could snap back."

大麥週一警語: 科技股廢到笑, 類債券資產待反彈

Indeed, he added, that has happened with the cyclicals underperforming
defensives by approximately 5 percent despite the fact that interest rates
have continued to rise.

儘管利率續升, 景氣循環股表現比防禦性類股差

Wilson downgraded the technology sector to equal-weight from overweight and
highlighted weaker performance in semiconductor and software companies.

大麥將科技類股從加碼降評至續抱, 並嘲諷半導體及軟體類股

Chipmakers were some of the best-performing stocks in 2017, with names like
Broadcom and Micron posting gains of 17 percent and 66 percent respectively
over the past 12 months. But 2018 has proven to be more turbulent for the
tech companies, with Broadcom and Micron down 11 percent each over the past
month.

晶片製造商如博通美光在2017超屌, 但2018等著哭哭

Wilson added that software and services companies like PayPal, Google-parent
Alphabet and Activision Blizzard have also been lackluster in the past few
weeks.

大麥補充, PayPal, Alphabet, Activision Blizzard 最近表現要死不活

But Wilson's thesis did favor some sectors.

但大麥也對某些族群按讚

He upgraded the utilities sector to overweight, arguing that the recent
uptick in yields is unlikely to last. Utilities stocks, traditionally viewed
as bond proxies, could see upside if Treasury yields recede from their recent
highs.

加碼公用事業類股(類債券資產), 若債券收益收斂可得益

"We are not believers in the sustainability of the level of yields," Wilson
explained. "As one of the most rate-sensitive equity sectors, and one that
has certainly moved down as rates have risen, we recommend going overweight
utilities to play a rate retracement at some point in the not too distant
future."

大麥: 美債利率回調不遠矣

https://i.imgur.com/vM2FeLz.png
Source: FactSet

But if rates maintain their upward momentum, utilities can still find support
in a recovery in earnings revisions, according to Wilson. Utilities largely
outperformed last week despite the rise in rates, posting a loss of 0.6
percent over the past week versus the S&P 500's loss of 3.8 percent.

就算利率續噴, 公用事業有撐, 盈餘修正復甦

3.心得/評論：

來來來, 一起來

棒康膨風科技股

轉眼就三九五五

新年恭喜發大財

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