國產疫苗信心不足?高端今日開盤再跌停 - 股票
By Kristin
at 2021-06-02T08:45
at 2021-06-02T08:45
Table of Contents
小弟 也說說自己看法,說得不好請
還請海涵。
首先贊成國內發展疫苗,這策略是對的
,我想這出發點應該沒有什麼人會反對。
先撇開目前政治因素,單純討論高端未來發展,我個人是不好看的。
先不論未來是否三期臨床成功、能否得到
國際認證、打通國際通路這些因素;先假
設這些都能成功過關也是要幾年,那我們
來看看那時國際上會遇到什麼問題。
1.目前已有多個藥廠進行二代疫苗開發,高端疫苗到時勢必面臨二代疫苗上市問題;當二代疫苗拿走大部分的餅(很簡單有二代疫苗,你會想選一代);別忘了現在各國也在努力開發自己的疫苗,當然也會試圖申請國際認證,所以扣除二代疫苗剩下的市場還要跟世界各國一代疫苗競爭,可以想見是個紅海市場。
2. 目前對於Covid-19未來走向流感化應該是大家的共識,但不能以目前世界各國積極接種的情況下去估計整個市場需求,未來流感化後接種率勢必下降(也就是整個市場萎縮),因為需求變少國際競爭激烈,未來各國為扶植自身疫苗廠勢必保護國內市場難以打入。
3. 國外市場競爭激烈,國內市場過小,可以預估未來公司成長性應該不大(可能就國光化),難以支撐目前高股價。
就這些理由,目前價位小弟一點也不會考慮,也建議想買的再慎重考慮。
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Samsung SM-N9750.
--
還請海涵。
首先贊成國內發展疫苗,這策略是對的
,我想這出發點應該沒有什麼人會反對。
先撇開目前政治因素,單純討論高端未來發展,我個人是不好看的。
先不論未來是否三期臨床成功、能否得到
國際認證、打通國際通路這些因素;先假
設這些都能成功過關也是要幾年,那我們
來看看那時國際上會遇到什麼問題。
1.目前已有多個藥廠進行二代疫苗開發,高端疫苗到時勢必面臨二代疫苗上市問題;當二代疫苗拿走大部分的餅(很簡單有二代疫苗,你會想選一代);別忘了現在各國也在努力開發自己的疫苗,當然也會試圖申請國際認證,所以扣除二代疫苗剩下的市場還要跟世界各國一代疫苗競爭,可以想見是個紅海市場。
2. 目前對於Covid-19未來走向流感化應該是大家的共識,但不能以目前世界各國積極接種的情況下去估計整個市場需求,未來流感化後接種率勢必下降(也就是整個市場萎縮),因為需求變少國際競爭激烈,未來各國為扶植自身疫苗廠勢必保護國內市場難以打入。
3. 國外市場競爭激烈,國內市場過小,可以預估未來公司成長性應該不大(可能就國光化),難以支撐目前高股價。
就這些理由,目前價位小弟一點也不會考慮,也建議想買的再慎重考慮。
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Samsung SM-N9750.
--
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at 2023-01-11T08:01
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at 2023-01-27T16:17
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at 2023-02-24T04:10
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at 2023-03-04T10:12
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at 2023-03-16T15:13
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at 2023-03-19T02:56
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