回憶1987大崩盤 - 股票
By Susan
at 2017-10-15T13:34
at 2017-10-15T13:34
Table of Contents
※ 引述《a65745322 (edward)》之銘言:
: 1.原文連結:http://m.cnyes.com/news/id/3932389
: ※過長無法點擊者必須縮網址
: 2.原文內容:
: 根據 MarketWatch 分析報導,30 年前的 10 月,投資人無不浸淫在獲利的喜悅中。
: 然而 1987 年 10 月 19 日,道瓊工業平均指數大跌了 22.6%。S&P 500 亦重挫 20.5%。
: 這就是所謂的黑色星期一,或 1987 年大崩盤。
: 30 年後,美國股市是否還會出現類似的跌勢?如果會,又該如何保護自己?這是投資人
: 目前最應思考的問題,因為美國股市正處於記錄高點水平。
: 今日的美國股市與 1987 年崩盤前,有六大類似處:
: 1. 今日的被動式 ETF 投資與 1987 年的資產組合保險投資,均見增加。
: 2. 股市氣氛都非常看漲。
: 3. 市場漲勢似乎均無法阻擋。
: 4. 股市價值皆非常之高。
: 5. 利率均見上升。
: 6. 企業獲利亦都上升。
: 關於第一項類似之處,1987 年基金經理人一味地買進股票,因為他們認為股市是單行道
: ,充滿獲利,少有風險。他們還在華爾街買進資產組合保險,理論上,這項保險可在跌勢
: 中,提供他們保護。然而,這項投資組合保險係由選擇權與期貨組成,現在看來,這項投
: 資組合保險不但無法保護他們,反而讓賣壓加速。
: 今日指數股票型基金 (ETF) 盛行,因而產生了類似的風險。尤其大量資金流入了被動式
: ETF。今日,大多投資人並不知道被動式 ETF 投資的風險,一如 1987 年,大多投資組合
: 經理人不了解投資組合保險的風險一般。
: 根據 Arora Report 的指標顯示,現在股市的氣氛非常看漲,但並非極度看漲。然而非常
: 看漲與極度看漲差異並不大。極度看漲氣氛通常是反向指標,其後而來的往往是股市的跌
: 勢。
: 一如 1987 年,股價已偏高,企業獲利亦上升,然而在推升股市之後,股市仍難免重挫。
: 而且近些日子,利率也在上升。利率上升推升了銀行股與金融股。1987 年,利率要比現
: 在高得多,但重要的是,利率在上升,一如今日。
: 3.心得/評論:
: 物極必反,這波台股萬點行情撐的夠久的,世界各地股市指數陸續創高表現,而實質經濟
: 真的有轉好嗎?
: 感覺這是一場猶太人(有錢人)的金錢遊戲。
: 散戶團結被坑殺,
: 外資提款笑哈哈。
: https://i.imgur.com/c9sJmTk.jpg
: 1987年10月19日 黑色星期一
: 高點不賣難道等跌了才賣嗎?
: 多空散戶保重~
: 我期待崩崩,可是創高已經崩潰我的信心。
或許前一陣子的漲勢讓投資人又忘了這則新聞
1987年10月19日的30周年是指下星期
而非前一陣子上漲的十月初喔!
尤其上星期五幾篇樂觀文連發
更是該戒慎恐懼了
加上57金錢爆預言的丁年庚月魔咒也是在下星期啟動
在各國股市近來一波凌厲漲勢後開始回跌也不是不可能
投資人自己真的要小心點喔
最後
再輔以底下會有一堆噓文說我"被嘎傻了、空軍還在喔"之類的酸言酸語
更足以證明股民太過樂觀了
這樣過熱的市場氣氛
說是崩盤的前兆也不為過
以上
--
: 1.原文連結:http://m.cnyes.com/news/id/3932389
: ※過長無法點擊者必須縮網址
: 2.原文內容:
: 根據 MarketWatch 分析報導,30 年前的 10 月,投資人無不浸淫在獲利的喜悅中。
: 然而 1987 年 10 月 19 日,道瓊工業平均指數大跌了 22.6%。S&P 500 亦重挫 20.5%。
: 這就是所謂的黑色星期一,或 1987 年大崩盤。
: 30 年後,美國股市是否還會出現類似的跌勢?如果會,又該如何保護自己?這是投資人
: 目前最應思考的問題,因為美國股市正處於記錄高點水平。
: 今日的美國股市與 1987 年崩盤前,有六大類似處:
: 1. 今日的被動式 ETF 投資與 1987 年的資產組合保險投資,均見增加。
: 2. 股市氣氛都非常看漲。
: 3. 市場漲勢似乎均無法阻擋。
: 4. 股市價值皆非常之高。
: 5. 利率均見上升。
: 6. 企業獲利亦都上升。
: 關於第一項類似之處,1987 年基金經理人一味地買進股票,因為他們認為股市是單行道
: ,充滿獲利,少有風險。他們還在華爾街買進資產組合保險,理論上,這項保險可在跌勢
: 中,提供他們保護。然而,這項投資組合保險係由選擇權與期貨組成,現在看來,這項投
: 資組合保險不但無法保護他們,反而讓賣壓加速。
: 今日指數股票型基金 (ETF) 盛行,因而產生了類似的風險。尤其大量資金流入了被動式
: ETF。今日,大多投資人並不知道被動式 ETF 投資的風險,一如 1987 年,大多投資組合
: 經理人不了解投資組合保險的風險一般。
: 根據 Arora Report 的指標顯示,現在股市的氣氛非常看漲,但並非極度看漲。然而非常
: 看漲與極度看漲差異並不大。極度看漲氣氛通常是反向指標,其後而來的往往是股市的跌
: 勢。
: 一如 1987 年,股價已偏高,企業獲利亦上升,然而在推升股市之後,股市仍難免重挫。
: 而且近些日子,利率也在上升。利率上升推升了銀行股與金融股。1987 年,利率要比現
: 在高得多,但重要的是,利率在上升,一如今日。
: 3.心得/評論:
: 物極必反,這波台股萬點行情撐的夠久的,世界各地股市指數陸續創高表現,而實質經濟
: 真的有轉好嗎?
: 感覺這是一場猶太人(有錢人)的金錢遊戲。
: 散戶團結被坑殺,
: 外資提款笑哈哈。
: https://i.imgur.com/c9sJmTk.jpg
: 1987年10月19日 黑色星期一
: 高點不賣難道等跌了才賣嗎?
: 多空散戶保重~
: 我期待崩崩,可是創高已經崩潰我的信心。
或許前一陣子的漲勢讓投資人又忘了這則新聞
1987年10月19日的30周年是指下星期
而非前一陣子上漲的十月初喔!
尤其上星期五幾篇樂觀文連發
更是該戒慎恐懼了
加上57金錢爆預言的丁年庚月魔咒也是在下星期啟動
在各國股市近來一波凌厲漲勢後開始回跌也不是不可能
投資人自己真的要小心點喔
最後
再輔以底下會有一堆噓文說我"被嘎傻了、空軍還在喔"之類的酸言酸語
更足以證明股民太過樂觀了
這樣過熱的市場氣氛
說是崩盤的前兆也不為過
以上
--
Tags:
股票
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at 2018-12-03T12:00
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at 2018-12-05T15:01
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