合一(4743)短多 - 股票

By Eden
at 2020-07-17T13:58
at 2020-07-17T13:58
Table of Contents
※ 引述《galaxiehuang (misterdonut來看^_^思,1)》之銘言:
: 雖然我沒合一,
: 但合一不好,整個生技股也不會好,
: 稍微估一下合一的價值好了,
: 通篇充滿臆測及主觀看法,不認同的可以用力吐槽
: 股本35.5億(這邊不知道有沒有錯)
: 合一全部的產品有
: ON101
: OB318 Phase1
: FB825 Phase1 159億授權出去
: FB704A Phase1
: SNA 01~03 preIND
: 簡單算一下phase1的算5元,preIND的算一元(合一股本很大,給這些價值可能高估了)
: 除ON101和FB825共13元
: 關於FB825,雖然說不一定拿得到159億,但這麼早就授權出去,
: 姑且認為有這個價值,就不砍價了,回推股本約44.8元,算45元好了.
: 這樣不含ON101,有13+45 = 58元的價值
: 關於ON101,有兩個想法
: 1. Regranex銷售高峰2.7億美元(網路上找到的)
: 2. 合一最大年產量5000萬條(合一官網寫的)
: 想法1. 若合一採取Regranex的銷售策略賣很貴,那就用Regranex的銷售高峰來估
: 當然合一藥比較好,但藥品銷售沒那麼容易.
: 又採取本策略成本大概可以不用算了.
: 年貢獻營收2.7X30 = 81億台幣,又中天也要賺,經銷商也要賺
: 算一半給合一好了40.5億, EPS 11.4
: 本益比用15來乘,這可能已經高估了,因為要考慮藥證過期,未來有可能有更好的
藥
: 11.4 X 15 = 171
: 171 + 58 = 229元
: 想法2.
: 用之前有聽到SR大講的一條賣900台幣(這邊不知道有沒有記錯)
: 這邊算毛利70%(也是亂估的)
: 銷售額5000萬X900 = 450億台幣, 扣掉中天和經銷商賺的 225億台幣,
: 扣掉成本 450億X0.3 = 135億, 共賺225億 - 135億 = 90億台幣
: 共賺 25.4元 乘上本益比15 = 381
: 381+58 = 439元 (如果成本更低就可以賺更多)
: 所以本魯計算合一合理價在 229~439元之間,謝謝觀賞.
: 股票跌賺點p幣來補.
5000萬條藥膏,每條定價2000好了(Regranex每條36000),扣掉成本跟分潤每條淨賺500
,就是淨賺250億eps80 合理價1000,大家說好不好阿XDDD
--
: 雖然我沒合一,
: 但合一不好,整個生技股也不會好,
: 稍微估一下合一的價值好了,
: 通篇充滿臆測及主觀看法,不認同的可以用力吐槽
: 股本35.5億(這邊不知道有沒有錯)
: 合一全部的產品有
: ON101
: OB318 Phase1
: FB825 Phase1 159億授權出去
: FB704A Phase1
: SNA 01~03 preIND
: 簡單算一下phase1的算5元,preIND的算一元(合一股本很大,給這些價值可能高估了)
: 除ON101和FB825共13元
: 關於FB825,雖然說不一定拿得到159億,但這麼早就授權出去,
: 姑且認為有這個價值,就不砍價了,回推股本約44.8元,算45元好了.
: 這樣不含ON101,有13+45 = 58元的價值
: 關於ON101,有兩個想法
: 1. Regranex銷售高峰2.7億美元(網路上找到的)
: 2. 合一最大年產量5000萬條(合一官網寫的)
: 想法1. 若合一採取Regranex的銷售策略賣很貴,那就用Regranex的銷售高峰來估
: 當然合一藥比較好,但藥品銷售沒那麼容易.
: 又採取本策略成本大概可以不用算了.
: 年貢獻營收2.7X30 = 81億台幣,又中天也要賺,經銷商也要賺
: 算一半給合一好了40.5億, EPS 11.4
: 本益比用15來乘,這可能已經高估了,因為要考慮藥證過期,未來有可能有更好的
藥
: 11.4 X 15 = 171
: 171 + 58 = 229元
: 想法2.
: 用之前有聽到SR大講的一條賣900台幣(這邊不知道有沒有記錯)
: 這邊算毛利70%(也是亂估的)
: 銷售額5000萬X900 = 450億台幣, 扣掉中天和經銷商賺的 225億台幣,
: 扣掉成本 450億X0.3 = 135億, 共賺225億 - 135億 = 90億台幣
: 共賺 25.4元 乘上本益比15 = 381
: 381+58 = 439元 (如果成本更低就可以賺更多)
: 所以本魯計算合一合理價在 229~439元之間,謝謝觀賞.
: 股票跌賺點p幣來補.
5000萬條藥膏,每條定價2000好了(Regranex每條36000),扣掉成本跟分潤每條淨賺500
,就是淨賺250億eps80 合理價1000,大家說好不好阿XDDD
--
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股票
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