合一 - 股票
By Doris
at 2020-07-12T10:18
at 2020-07-12T10:18
Table of Contents
標的:合一
分類:請益
分析/正文:
合一(4743)研究日記:
沒開盤的假日簡直痛不欲生(誤,特別在週五跌停收盤之後。既然買都買了,假日醒來也
閒著沒事,好好整理一下自己買到的生技股王目前在股市中的狀態。
由於生技類股的股價與營收面關聯不大,主要還是看可供炒作之題材。這方面,合一是
幾檔狂飆生技股中,唯一展現出未來大幅獲利可能(ON101),與已有大額權利金將入帳認
列(825)的股票,這方面來看,若買生科類股,選擇此標的進行投資並無不當。
前面說過,生技類股不看營收,在利多消息狀況不變的情況下,關鍵在於籌碼資金與投
資人心態,因此從股票的持股去進行分析。
https://i.imgur.com/b31WUV8.jpg
從圖一股權分散表可以看到,合一是當前的生技股王,在車上的人數在46000人之譜,合
計發行了35萬張股票,持有1000張以上的19個大戶就持有了庫存的53%股票。在籌碼面上
的集中度是相對優於齊名的四大飆股母公司中天(72474人/42萬5張/1000張以上51%)、與
另一對母子檔杏輝(46118人/16萬7張/1000張以上24%)。
https://i.imgur.com/aUw8LaN.jpg
再從圖二的籌碼集中度可以發現,董監本身一張不賣,而外資逐漸增持,籌碼集中度維
持在60%上下波動。可以看出來即便股價翻了不止20倍,董監依然沒有獲利了結的打算,
並無任何出脫持股的舉動。
對此可以有兩種看法:
1、董監:才400?4000才是我們的出貨價。
或是…
2、董監:反正我買的時候才10塊,沒差,喝酒啦喝酒
而外資即便價位站上400,在跌停之際仍持續定額買入也可以看出對於合一外資有足夠的
信心在此價位建倉。
因此漲跌關鍵在於集中籌碼59%減去董監持股22.38%剩下的36%的大戶持股是否在顯著減
少或增加,決定了這檔股票的走勢。目前來看經過大跌停日的洗禮,主力手中持股卻不
減反增,沒有道理故意賣低手中資產,在不能進行放空的情況下,唯一合理解釋,是壓
低吃貨集中籌碼方便拉抬股價更上一層樓。
從近期歷史上合一收綠的經驗來看,幾乎都不超過兩天就重返榮耀,再看主力這三十天
賣超的2000多張比對後會發現幾乎都被外資吃掉,不影響籌碼的集中度。因此對合一的
股價未來走勢,我還是有信心可以漲到600甚至更高的點位,但短期震盪應該是避免不了
。
以上淺見,請給予指教。
進退場機制:
進場:均價360
出場:我入場價跌停一根出場(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制)
--
分類:請益
分析/正文:
合一(4743)研究日記:
沒開盤的假日簡直痛不欲生(誤,特別在週五跌停收盤之後。既然買都買了,假日醒來也
閒著沒事,好好整理一下自己買到的生技股王目前在股市中的狀態。
由於生技類股的股價與營收面關聯不大,主要還是看可供炒作之題材。這方面,合一是
幾檔狂飆生技股中,唯一展現出未來大幅獲利可能(ON101),與已有大額權利金將入帳認
列(825)的股票,這方面來看,若買生科類股,選擇此標的進行投資並無不當。
前面說過,生技類股不看營收,在利多消息狀況不變的情況下,關鍵在於籌碼資金與投
資人心態,因此從股票的持股去進行分析。
https://i.imgur.com/b31WUV8.jpg
從圖一股權分散表可以看到,合一是當前的生技股王,在車上的人數在46000人之譜,合
計發行了35萬張股票,持有1000張以上的19個大戶就持有了庫存的53%股票。在籌碼面上
的集中度是相對優於齊名的四大飆股母公司中天(72474人/42萬5張/1000張以上51%)、與
另一對母子檔杏輝(46118人/16萬7張/1000張以上24%)。
https://i.imgur.com/aUw8LaN.jpg
再從圖二的籌碼集中度可以發現,董監本身一張不賣,而外資逐漸增持,籌碼集中度維
持在60%上下波動。可以看出來即便股價翻了不止20倍,董監依然沒有獲利了結的打算,
並無任何出脫持股的舉動。
對此可以有兩種看法:
1、董監:才400?4000才是我們的出貨價。
或是…
2、董監:反正我買的時候才10塊,沒差,喝酒啦喝酒
而外資即便價位站上400,在跌停之際仍持續定額買入也可以看出對於合一外資有足夠的
信心在此價位建倉。
因此漲跌關鍵在於集中籌碼59%減去董監持股22.38%剩下的36%的大戶持股是否在顯著減
少或增加,決定了這檔股票的走勢。目前來看經過大跌停日的洗禮,主力手中持股卻不
減反增,沒有道理故意賣低手中資產,在不能進行放空的情況下,唯一合理解釋,是壓
低吃貨集中籌碼方便拉抬股價更上一層樓。
從近期歷史上合一收綠的經驗來看,幾乎都不超過兩天就重返榮耀,再看主力這三十天
賣超的2000多張比對後會發現幾乎都被外資吃掉,不影響籌碼的集中度。因此對合一的
股價未來走勢,我還是有信心可以漲到600甚至更高的點位,但短期震盪應該是避免不了
。
以上淺見,請給予指教。
進退場機制:
進場:均價360
出場:我入場價跌停一根出場(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制)
--
Tags:
股票
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