台股一年預期漲(跌)幅如何計算? - 股票
By Franklin
at 2021-04-01T22:58
at 2021-04-01T22:58
Table of Contents
我大概跑出一個公式出來,台股長期以來的走勢報酬率大概不脫這個公式
房價漲幅(如跌則為負值)+GDP增幅(負成長則為負值減項)+通貨膨脹率(負值為減項)
=台股漲(跌)幅
比如預期未來一年房價漲幅10%,GDP成長4%,通貨膨脹成長3%
則台股報酬率(還權息)可望達到17%,即未來一年漲幅有機會達到17%
相反的,如未來一年房價下跌5%,GDP零成長,通貨膨脹率負成長1%,
則台股預期報酬率(還權息)會是負的6%,換言之未來可能下跌6%
經濟成長,會帶動企業獲利成長,通貨膨脹率則會讓資產重新評價,
那房價漲幅呢? 則會讓台股的預期報酬率提高,
房地產漲跌幅可視為無風險下的投資型資產評價模式,
若房地產價格上漲,企業資產價值會提高,淨值會提升,
對於股市的評價也會跟著往上,反之如房地產價格下跌,企業資產下降,
股市評價也就跟著下降.
--
Tags:
股票
All Comments
By Andrew
at 2021-04-06T07:27
at 2021-04-06T07:27
By Elvira
at 2021-04-09T07:40
at 2021-04-09T07:40
By Jacky
at 2021-04-13T03:19
at 2021-04-13T03:19
By Yuri
at 2021-04-15T22:23
at 2021-04-15T22:23
By Erin
at 2021-04-18T16:56
at 2021-04-18T16:56
By Mia
at 2021-04-19T07:41
at 2021-04-19T07:41
By Daniel
at 2021-04-20T04:33
at 2021-04-20T04:33
By Lucy
at 2021-04-22T18:04
at 2021-04-22T18:04
By Sierra Rose
at 2021-04-24T09:26
at 2021-04-24T09:26
By Lily
at 2021-04-28T01:13
at 2021-04-28T01:13
By Rachel
at 2021-05-01T05:08
at 2021-05-01T05:08
By Joseph
at 2021-05-03T07:16
at 2021-05-03T07:16
Related Posts
美股 AMAT
By Noah
at 2021-04-01T22:58
at 2021-04-01T22:58
110年04月01日信用交易統計
By Brianna
at 2021-04-01T22:33
at 2021-04-01T22:33
股市新手,畢業文
By Hedwig
at 2021-04-01T22:31
at 2021-04-01T22:31
台紙「千億高球場地」越南政府的!
By Catherine
at 2021-04-01T22:28
at 2021-04-01T22:28
寧德時代、比亞迪打趴3大韓廠 電動車電池
By Joseph
at 2021-04-01T22:13
at 2021-04-01T22:13