台積電夜盤是吃了春藥嗎？ - 股票

※ 引述《meichiang (美江)》之銘言：
: 現在台gg 夜盤漲幅破10% 這是吃了什麼藥 早盤雖然逆勢上漲但夜盤怎麼怎麼突然衝破天
: 際 夜盤的指數順拉百點 完全無懼老美老中的對抗 今年是台gg元年嗎？ 下週一 開盤台g
: g會鎖住漲停嗎？ 大家對夜盤怎麼看

昨天 Q2 eanring call 結束後的 Q&A 有一段:

(完整的transcript 請參考 seekingalpha https://bit.ly/3fXcdl1)

==

Operator

Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

Ross Seymore

Hi, guys. I’m going to stick with the theme and ask about the 7-nanometer as
well. I guess, Bob, it’s great to hear that you’re being -- you’re saying
you’re going to be more pragmatic about internal versus external. But, it
seems like contingency plan three years down the road is how the external
option is being treated. I think investors are frustrated with how long this
execution on manufacturing has happened. Are there steps where instead of
being a contingency plan, you actually start making the external side the
primary source before 2023? Obviously on the design side, more than the
revenue side. And maybe a follow-up, if three to five years down the road,
the 20-80, 20 external, 80 internal mix, do you think that changes?

Bob Swan

Maybe, I’ll flip those around. Over the last couple of years, we’ve been
talking about, as we expand our capacity, evaluating more holistically, when
do we use third-party foundries, rather than do everything ourselves. And we
call that engaging in the ecosystem in much more holistic ways for a variety
of different reasons, so we don’t have to build everything ourselves as the
capital associated with each node becomes a bit higher. So, in general, I
would say for planning purposes, we’ve been engaging with the ecosystem much
more. And all else equal, I would expect that roughly 28% to be a little bit
higher as we focus on growing the business.

==

德意志銀行分析師 Ross Seymore 提說 3~5年內, Intel 委外代工跟自製的比例是否有可能來到 20:80?

而 Intel 執行長 Bob Swan 的回答是，他們過去幾年已經務實地在評估何時該使用第三方代工廠，而不必自建所有的產能，尤其是當每個先進製程節點的資本資出越來越高時。而就營運規劃的目的，他們已經開始跟整個生態系統有更多的接觸。如果 Intel 聚焦在業務的成長時，委外代工的比例有可能來到 28%。

Intel 財測 2020的營收是 750億美元。如果Intel真的把 28%的業務委外代工，同時仍維持 60%的毛利，且"如果"全被台積拿下的話，相當於是一年 84億美元的訂單。猜測這個可能性帶來的想像空間，大概是台積 ADR 今晚大漲的原因 (之一)。





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