台積電(2330) - 股票
By Elvira
at 2012-11-27T15:53
at 2012-11-27T15:53
Table of Contents
1. 標的:台積電(2330)
2. 進場理由:只在討論技術面,沒有要操作 ^^"
技術面:
下圖為台積電「月線圖」:
http://angraecum.pixnet.net/album/photo/206559215#after=161164508
不開月線圖不曉得台積電竟然不知不覺地走了4年的大多頭!
由08年11月至今似乎就月線圖的角度還沒有要結案的樣子…
因月線3月K線組合形成「一星二陽」,表示多頭仍將再作延伸,
不過,觀看下方這波大多頭量能潮的變化,價愈高量卻愈來愈小,
以這種大型股來說,這種量價配合理論上不是很正常,且以本月價
創新高而本月之量卻是近月最小來看,這種突破…很不健康,也就
是量價呈現背離且創新高。
量價背離要告訴我們什麼?
這要表達的不是立馬就要反轉,而是說高點可能已經不多,再追高
必需面臨風險;而量縮走漲,未來的結局通常只有兩個:
其一、量縮上漲一旦出大量就反轉。
其二、量縮上漲至價無法再推高,但量續不出,就會開始盤頭,盤
頭過程,量並無太大異常,盤的時間無法預期,盤至價破盤
局之低點,或是向下直接開缺口起跌。
至於台積電最後會出現哪種型式?這我想沒人會知道,只能說對多
方而言,寧可看著它也不要去操作它;而對空方而言,你可以空看
看,但一樣要設停損,量縮上漲跟量縮常態盤跌一樣很難掌握,所
以你空它就是認為它漲的不健康所以空它,但不代表你空的點就是
反轉點,所以不是說股價高去棒康就一定會賺錢,漲勢走入邪惡面
,到底會有多高很難說,與其一直想著「空看看」(摸頭),不如
乖乖等明確轉折再動手,所以基本上台積電漲到這裡…我也不覺得
就要拼了命去空它,不過這裡空看看會比作多的追看看好 XDDD
而背離可不可以化解?答案自然是肯定的。
不過就作多的人而言,你不能預設立場它一定會化解背離,預設立
場就是成為死多頭、死空頭的根源,而是要先以風險為考慮,真的
要這裡進場作多,在進場前先盤算好,萬一買了就反轉我該怎麼處
理部位,我能如何處理部位,這是高檔多方進場必需先考慮的事,
既然是創新高後買了套牢,就表示一旦反轉你會套很久…,所以高
檔進場作多,必需要先安排好退場機制,防護機制用不到就等它再
漲,用到了手也不能軟。
技術面出現任何缺失時,後續都可以化解,但運用技術面操作時,
絕對不能說後續一定會化解,在風險為先的前題下,寧可出現疑慮
時先走,真的化解可以再買回,但一旦留錯又不會處理,這狀況多
來幾回,不用多久你就會黯然離開市場。
那有人會說,我這時買台積電作「價值型長投」…
恕我直言,只有笨蛋才會在股價創高時進去作長投!
你以為台積電一生會有幾次股價百元?而股價創新高後…到底還留
有多少投資價值?只有股價在低檔,才該去找價值。
巴菲特曾言:
我一直覺得很奇怪,平時百貨公司週年慶消費者都懂得去撿便宜,
但為什麼進入股市卻總是在追高?
問問自己你是不是這樣的投資人…
=========================================================================
下圖為台積電日線圖:
http://angraecum.pixnet.net/album/photo/206559503#after=161164508
日線台積電三日亦成「一星二陽」,基本上後續多半都還會有高點,由均線
看,漲勢慣性可以季線為準,或以上升線為觀察,當漲勢慣性破壞時,就可
能是風險來臨時,如果無法承受上升線、季線為退場點,那就從K線去找支
撐,破撐就走,沒破就抱,這段話是說給非買台積電不可的人可作參考… ^^"
以上是小弟無聊掃個股技術線圖時,看到台積電線圖突然有感…
本文不在多空,而在討論觀念,小弟新手向來性格保守,所以看到創新高的
個股,態度上會慣性保留,內文或言主觀…或胡說八道都無所謂,反正我 p
幣是賺到手了 XDDD
--
夜空に星が瞬くように
溶けたこころは離れない
たとえこの手が離れても
ふたりがそれを忘れぬ限り…
--
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