別跟日本匯神對作5-神原英資：日圓兌美元今年恐升抵70/Job - 投資

神原英資：日圓兌美元今年恐升抵70 政府不該干預( 2009/03/09 09:29 中央社 )
Bloomberg:Last Updated: March 9, 2009 02:45 EDT

哈哈，中央社的消息還比Bloomberg快幾小時…


神原老頭目前依然保持著幾乎全勝的紀錄，他讓我想起日劇-Big Money的神準老頭，我也
希望有個像他的師父，可惜找不到。我總覺得一個人是成是敗，就看他跟的是誰。丹尼斯
失敗收場，是因為他沒有師父，他註定了孤獨、獨自承受壓力，但海龜有了丹尼斯的照顧
，卻闖出了一片天…

我沒看過預測的比神原準的大師，即使是索羅斯，都會有幾個月的時間差，更別提過街老
鼠-羅傑斯了…
以下是他的新聞，各位可以慢慢驗證：

連結：http://www.wretch.cc/blog/phigroup/15569389

日本匯神-神原英資-延伸閱讀
2009.02.26 日本匯神-神原英資，我，又贏了！/Job
2009.02.23 匯市債市新聞/Job-神原英資：日圓近期貶至100
2009.01.20 別和日本匯神對作3-日圓上半年升破80/Job
2008.11.12 別和日本匯神對作2-日圓升至80/Job
2008.10.08 別和日本匯神對作！日本匯神：日圓年內到90/Job
2008.10.15 神原英資:泡沫是市場經濟的宿命/Job



神原英資：日圓兌美元今年恐升抵70 政府不該干預
( 2009/03/09 09:29 中央社 )

（中央社台北2009年3月09日電）素有日圓先生之稱的日本前財務省官員神原英資表示，
日圓今年可能升抵70日圓兌1美元的歷史高點，政府不應該干預阻升。

神原英資指出，市場仍受全球金融危機影響，日圓今年可能在100-70日圓之間大幅波動。
神原英資曾於1997-1999年期間任職目前的財務省。

日圓兌美元1月21日一度升抵87.13日圓兌1美元，隨後展開6週貶勢，並在3月5日觸及
99.68。市場臆測日本經濟惡化，投資人不再將日圓視為資金避風港。

神原英資上週接受彭博社專訪時表示，日本與歐洲經濟惡化情況比美國更嚴重，這代表日
圓匯價仍將震盪。

神原英資指出，儘管日圓將出現大幅震盪，但他認為沒有干預必要，他也認為美國當局不
會容許干預行為。

日本政府上次干預匯市是在2003年，當時主管機關拋售20.4兆日圓 (2080億美元)，以及
在2004年的第一季，當時日圓升抵103.42日圓兌1美元的水準。

目前任教於日本早稻田大學的神原英資表示，美元在至少未來5-10年可能仍維持儲備貨幣
的地位，並強調歐元、日圓與人民幣仍無法取代美元。

法國總統沙柯吉去年呼籲重新評估獨尊美元為單一儲備貨幣的全球匯率系統。

對此，神原英資則表示，現在不是考慮取代美元的儲備貨幣的時候。

神原英資也呼籲中國進一步鬆綁匯率交易，並且避免任何市場操縱行為。

神原英資指出，一個干預匯市國家的貨幣是不可能成為國際所接受的儲備貨幣。





Euro Trades Near One-Week High as ECB May Slow Rate-Cut Pace

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By Ron Harui and Yasuhiko Seki

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded close to a one-week high against the
dollar amid speculation the European Central Bank will slow the pace of
interest-rate cuts, helping to keep the currency attractive.

Europe’s single currency may rise for a second day against the greenback
after ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said reducing borrowing costs
wouldn’t remedy the financial crisis and pushing rates too low may backfire.
The Swiss franc fell against the dollar before a government report today that
may show the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 3.4 percent in February,
from 3.3 percent the previous month.

“Expectations for a further interest-rate cut by the ECB have eased for now
following last week’s reduction and recent comments by the bank’s officials,
” said Ryohei Muramatsu, Tokyo-based manager of Group Treasury Asia at
Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-largest lender. “This is triggering some
buying back of the euro for now.”

The euro was at $1.2636 as of 6:38 a.m. in London, after touching $1.2727
earlier, from $1.2653 late in New York on March 6. It traded at 124.14 yen
from 124.34 yen. The Japanese currency stood at 98.24 against the dollar from
98.25 last week.

The Swiss franc declined to 1.1615 against the dollar from 1.1577 in New York
last week.

“The financial crisis can’t be solved with rate cuts,” Stark said in an
interview to be published in Luxembourg’s Tageblatt newspaper today. “Too
low a rate level can even be counter-productive.”

Lowest Limit

Stark speaks at 10 a.m. in Luxembourg today and fellow board members Axel
Weber and John Hurley will give speeches tomorrow. A benchmark lending rate
of 1 percent as the “lowest limit,” Weber said on Feb. 24.

Investors raised bets the ECB will keep its benchmark at 1.5 percent at its
next meeting on April 2. The yield on the three-month Euribor three-month
interest-rate futures due April climbed to 1.57 percent on March 6 from 1.56
percent on March 5.

The euro may strengthen to $1.29 by year-end, according to a Bloomberg News
survey of 52 economists and analysts.

The yen earlier declined against the dollar after a government report showed
Japan posted a current-account deficit in January for the first time in 13
years.

The Japanese currency weakened after the Ministry of Finance said the world’
s second-biggest economy recorded a deficit of 172.8 billion yen ($1.76
billion), exceeding the median estimate for a 15.3 billion yen shortfall in a
Bloomberg News survey of economists.

‘Lingering Concern’

“There is lingering concern about the trend of exports due to the continued
global recession,” said Akio Yoshino, chief economist at Societe Generale
Asset Management (Japan) Inc. in Tokyo. “Declines in exports mean less need
for Japanese companies to repatriate sales generated outside Japan.”

The World Bank said yesterday the global economy is likely to shrink for the
first time since World War II, and trade will decline by the most in 80
years. The bank’s assessment is more pessimistic than an International
Monetary Fund report in January predicting 0.5 percent global growth this
year.

Japan’s export-oriented economy shrank an annualized 12.7 percent last
quarter, the government said Feb. 16, the biggest contraction since the 1974
oil crisis.

Losses in the yen may be limited after Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s
top currency official, said it may rise to a record 70 against the dollar
this year, and officials shouldn’t intervene.

Mr. Yen

The Japanese currency is likely to swing in a wide range between 100 and 70
versus the greenback in 2009 as markets remain volatile due to the global
financial turmoil, said Sakakibara, known as “Mr. Yen” from his 1997-1999
tenure at the Ministry of Finance. “While the yen will move wildly in this
range, I do not see any need for the intervention and I also believe that the
U.S. authorities would not permit it,” he said in an interview with
Bloomberg.

Demand for the dollar may weaken on speculation the U.S. government will
allow automakers to fail. President Barack Obama’s auto task force visits
Detroit today amid Republican calls to let General Motors Corp. go bankrupt
and waning public support for giving automakers the taxpayer loans they say
they need to survive.

Bankruptcy

GM executives, who last year warned bankruptcy-based reorganization would
have a catastrophic effect on customer confidence, are now more open to the
idea of a structured bankruptcy, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 6,
citing a person familiar with the company.

“A Chapter 11 filing by GM should trigger dollar-selling in an initial
reaction,” said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign-exchange sales in Tokyo at
NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. “Negative
developments in the U.S. financial sector may also weigh on sentiment toward
the dollar.”

The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback’s performance
against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona,
was little changed at 88.466. The index touched 89.624 last week, the highest
level since April 2006.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at
[email protected]; Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at [email protected]

<i>Last Updated: March 9, 2009 02:45 EDT</i>

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PHI金融夢想家 部落格

http://www.wretch.cc/blog/phigroup

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