中鋼評等降至中立 瑞銀證開傳產第一槍! - 股票
By Olivia
at 2021-04-27T12:07
at 2021-04-27T12:07
Table of Contents
中鋼評等降至中立 瑞銀證開傳產第一槍!
工商時報 簡威瑟
https://ctee.com.tw/news/stock/451648.html
瑞銀證券指出,中鋼(2002)股價經過大幅飆升,股價淨值比高於歷史均值二個標準差,
獲利成長與大陸調控鋼鐵產能的利多俱已反映在股價上,強調就算基本面強勁,評價面也
已經滿足,降評中鋼投資評等至「中立」,開出傳產指標股降評首槍!
傳產大型股本波輪動一波接一波,航運三雄啟航以來,資金持續輪動,包括:航空、塑化
、紡織、造紙、鋼鐵等指標股雨露均霑,瑞銀證券原本亦賦予中鋼「買進」投資評等,此
時因評價滿足,並擔憂獲利自2022年起下滑,啟動降評,是本波傳產旋風來首見。
瑞銀指出,考量鋼價漲勢,中鋼第一季稅前利潤躍升至131億元,大幅超過市場預期,因
客戶庫存水位仍低,第二季訂單強勁,研判市場回補庫存的力道將會延續進未來二至三季
。
外資估算,中鋼第二季稅前利潤可達172億元,接近歷史高點,第三季持平後,第四季則
會因拉貨動能趨緩而下滑,全年稅前利潤620億元,不過,2022年將會降為490億元,出現
不小的減幅。儘管鋼市得到經濟復甦與大陸減產的支撐,這樣的獲利優於過往平均水準,
但瑞銀提醒,從過往的補貨循環觀之,當回補庫存力道趨緩,導致獲利動能衰退,則可能
壓抑中鋼的股價表現。
對應至中鋼的評價,瑞銀證券說明,目前股價已交易在2021年預估的1.76倍股價淨值比,
高出自身歷史平均約二個標準差,也比亞太地區同業的正一個標準差更高。
外資估計,中鋼2021年每股純益2.67元,但因拉貨動能消退,鋼鐵需求年增率由2021年的
6%,至2022年降為正常時期的2%,研判2022、2023年每股純益降為2.14與1.14元。
瑞銀近一步說明,當全球金融市場出現危機後的補庫存潮出現,總能在短時間內大舉推高
中鋼的獲利爆發力,就如同金融海嘯時的經驗一樣,雖然產業循環狀況不可能完全一模一
樣,但目前的庫存循環竟驚人地與海嘯後經驗相似,意味鋼鐵未來兩、三季需求將續強。
外資在扯後腿
--
工商時報 簡威瑟
https://ctee.com.tw/news/stock/451648.html
瑞銀證券指出,中鋼(2002)股價經過大幅飆升,股價淨值比高於歷史均值二個標準差,
獲利成長與大陸調控鋼鐵產能的利多俱已反映在股價上,強調就算基本面強勁,評價面也
已經滿足,降評中鋼投資評等至「中立」,開出傳產指標股降評首槍!
傳產大型股本波輪動一波接一波,航運三雄啟航以來,資金持續輪動,包括:航空、塑化
、紡織、造紙、鋼鐵等指標股雨露均霑,瑞銀證券原本亦賦予中鋼「買進」投資評等,此
時因評價滿足,並擔憂獲利自2022年起下滑,啟動降評,是本波傳產旋風來首見。
瑞銀指出,考量鋼價漲勢,中鋼第一季稅前利潤躍升至131億元,大幅超過市場預期,因
客戶庫存水位仍低,第二季訂單強勁,研判市場回補庫存的力道將會延續進未來二至三季
。
外資估算,中鋼第二季稅前利潤可達172億元,接近歷史高點,第三季持平後,第四季則
會因拉貨動能趨緩而下滑,全年稅前利潤620億元,不過,2022年將會降為490億元,出現
不小的減幅。儘管鋼市得到經濟復甦與大陸減產的支撐,這樣的獲利優於過往平均水準,
但瑞銀提醒,從過往的補貨循環觀之,當回補庫存力道趨緩,導致獲利動能衰退,則可能
壓抑中鋼的股價表現。
對應至中鋼的評價,瑞銀證券說明,目前股價已交易在2021年預估的1.76倍股價淨值比,
高出自身歷史平均約二個標準差,也比亞太地區同業的正一個標準差更高。
外資估計,中鋼2021年每股純益2.67元,但因拉貨動能消退,鋼鐵需求年增率由2021年的
6%,至2022年降為正常時期的2%,研判2022、2023年每股純益降為2.14與1.14元。
瑞銀近一步說明,當全球金融市場出現危機後的補庫存潮出現,總能在短時間內大舉推高
中鋼的獲利爆發力,就如同金融海嘯時的經驗一樣,雖然產業循環狀況不可能完全一模一
樣,但目前的庫存循環竟驚人地與海嘯後經驗相似,意味鋼鐵未來兩、三季需求將續強。
外資在扯後腿
--
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