Wall Street: Bracing for profit shock - 期貨

Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2009-04-12T18:53

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Wall Street: Bracing for profit shock

Wall Street is set to post its seventh straight quarter of shrinking profits,
threatening the strength of the recent stock advance.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
April 11, 2009: 11:02 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The five-week old stock rally faces its biggest
test yet this week: The arrival of the first big basket of what is likely to
be a rotten batch of quarterly results.

"Recessions are a great time to figure out who is winning and who is losing,"
said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Partners.

"Overall, it's been a terrible quarter. That's no surprise," she said. "But
seeing who is holding it together is important to investors."

Alcoa, as is typical, marked the symbolic start of the quarterly reporting
period last week. But a wider range of marquee names trickle in this week as
the reporting period starts to pick up a little speed.

Five Dow components are due: financial firms Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and
JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), tech leader Intel (INTC, Fortune 500),
conglomerate General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) and consumer products maker
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500). Other non-Dow companies due to report
include Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and Nokia (NOK).

Reports are also due this week on housing, manufacturing, retail sales and
consumer sentiment. But with analysts unsure that investors have fully
accounted for the poor quarterly results about to roll in, earnings will be
critical.

Big losses ahead: S&P 500 profits are expected to have fallen 38% in the
first quarter versus a year ago, according to the latest from Thomson
Reuters. Another down quarter would bring the losing streak to seven in a
row, Wall Street's worst run since Thomson began tracking results in 1998.

Another dubious milestone: All ten economic sectors that S&P 500 tracks are
expected to post year-over-year losses, a first in Thomson's history.

"The trend we are seeing that started in the fourth quarter of '08 is that
the weakness has spread to every sector of the economy," said John Butters,
senior research analyst at Thomson Reuters.

He said that in the fourth quarter of 2007, in which the recession officially
began, only financials and consumer discretionary - which includes Ford Motor
(F, Fortune 500) and General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) - posted losses. Those
losses were substantial enough to drag down the overall S&P earnings and mask
an otherwise mixed earnings reporting period.

But in the quarters since then, the weakness has spread to all industries.

In the first quarter, consumer discretionary is expected to post losses of
more than 100% versus a year ago, due largely to the automakers and the
retailers. Surprisingly, homebuilders, part of the sector, are expected to
post quarterly earnings gains versus a year ago. However, that's largely
because results a year ago were so abysmal that comparisons are easy.

After consumer discretionary, basic materials is expected to post losses of
more than 80% versus a year ago, with weakness in chemicals, steel and mining
a reflection of the slower global economy. Energy is on track to post the
third-biggest year-over-year profit decline, of 56%.

Financials are expected to see profits fall by 46% versus a year ago,
although once Wells Fargo's better-than-expected forecast from Friday is
factored in, the number should drop down to just below 40%.

The sector expected to show the smallest drop in profits is healthcare, with
forecasts for a drop of 3% versus a year ago.

The breadth of the earnings weakness is a trend expected to continue for at
least another quarter, Butters said. Currently, Thomson expects
second-quarter profits to have fallen 32% from a year ago.

With the economic outlook still murky, forward-looking projections are
expected to be few and far between.

"Guidance is usually the key, but unfortunately managements don't know any
more about the economy than anyone else does," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief
investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "A lot of companies say they
won't give guidance in this environment."

Rally finding legs: Stocks have risen for five weeks straight since the Dow
and S&P 500 hit more than 12-year lows. In that time, the Dow rose 22%, its
best five-week run since May of 1933 when it gained 31%.

Although the initial spurt was driven mostly by traders, hedge funds and
other market pros, the recent leg has seen more individual investors jumping
back in.

Investors have poured money back into equity mutual funds over the last two
weeks. In the week ended Wed. April 8, investors put $11.9 billion into stock
mutual funds after adding $3 billion in the previous week.

Earnings
Tuesday: Goldman Sachs, considered to be one of the healthier banks, is due
to report results before the start of trading. The financial behemoth is
expected to have earned $1.60 after earning $3.23 a year ago.

On Friday, reports surfaced that Goldman is likely to announce as soon as
next week a multi-billion offering of its shares to investors, as part of a
plan to repay a $10 billion government loan.

Johnson & Johnson also reports results before the start of trading. The Dow
component is expected to have earned $1.22 per share versus $1.26 a year ago,
according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

After the close of trading, tech leader Intel is expected to report earnings
of 2 cents per share versus 29 cents a year ago.

Thursday: JPMorgan Chase, reporting before the opening bell, is expected to
have earned 32 cents per share after earning 68 cents a year ago.

Nokia also reports results in the morning. The telecom is expected to have
earned 15 cents per share versus 38 cents a year ago.

Google reports after the close. The Internet behemoth is expected to have
earned $4.95 per share after earning $4.98 per share a year ago.

Friday: Citigroup reports results in the morning. The Dow component is
expected to have lost 37 cents per share after losing $1.02 a year ago.

Dow component General Electric also reports results in the morning. GE is
expected to have earned 21 cents per share versus 44 cents a year ago.

Economy
Tuesday: Standouts on a busy day for economic news include a report on
wholesale inflation from the Labor Department and one on retail sales from
the Commerce Department.

The Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale
level, is expected to hold steady in March after rising 0.1% in February,
according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. So-called
"core" PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to
have risen 0.1% after growing 0.2% in February.

Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3% in March after falling 0.1% in
February, economists are estimating. Retail sales excluding autos are
expected to have edged up 0.1% after rising 0.7% in February.

A report is also due in the morning on February business inventories, but it
is not typically a market mover.

At 1:30 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at Morehouse
College in Atlanta about the financial crisis.

Wednesday: The Consumer Price index (CPI) is due before the start of trading.
CPI is expected to have risen 0.2% in march after jumping 0.4% in February.

March industrial production, from the Federal Reserve, is expected to have
fallen by 0.9% after dropping by 1.4% in February. Capacity utilization, a
measure of factory output, is expected to have fallen to 69.7% from 70.9% in
February.

The NY Empire State index, a regional read on manufacturing, is due shortly
after the start of trading. The index is expected to have improved modestly
to negative 35 in April from negative 38.2 in March.

The government's weekly energy supplies report is due in the morning. The Fed
releases its "beige book" semi-annual reading on the economy in the
afternoon. Wednesday is also the deadline for income tax returns.

Thursday: March housing sector reports from the Census Bureau are the
highlight of another busy day of economic news.

March housing starts are expected to have fallen to a 550,000 unit annual
rate from a 583,000 unit annual rate in February. Building permits, a measure
of builder confidence, are expected to have risen to a 550,000 annual unit
rate, economists expect, from a 447,000 unit rate in February.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional read on manufacturing, is expected to
have improved modestly to negative 32 in April from negative 35 in March.

The weekly jobless claims report is also due in the morning. Last week,
claims stood at 654,000, while continuing claims hit an all-time high of 5.84
million.

Friday: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to
have risen to 58.5 in April from 57.3 in March.


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資料來源網頁:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/11/markets/markets_weekahead/index.htm

--
Tags: 期貨

All Comments

Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2009-04-15T02:31
看懂才推....
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2009-04-15T15:20
啊哈大來翻譯吧 我看到眼花@@
Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2009-04-17T18:57
我只看得懂 Friday March
@@
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2009-04-22T15:30
有人要查英文的話,這個線上字典的內容極為豐富:
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2009-04-24T22:43
http://www.answers.com/
William avatar
By William
at 2009-04-25T23:07
大抵上在講財報週要來的事情,還有下週重要公司的財報
Candice avatar
By Candice
at 2009-04-27T17:29
還有經濟數據的公布。

請問期貨下多單是什麼意思

Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2009-04-12T11:19
舉例來說,我想買期貨多單,那我可以自訂四月底時的合約價格嗎? - ...

本板有哪些高手的文章值得一看?

Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2009-04-12T09:29
PTT 嘴砲最多 真正長期贏家都有一定年紀 這些人是不會上ptt的 ptt拿來看看一般散戶在想什麼 到是一個蠻不錯的地方 ※ 引述《newrocco (為什麼?)》之銘言: : 可以推薦一下嗎? 謝謝!! : 因為比較少來這個版 所以不太清楚本版有哪幾位高手? : 剛剛有看過kpwada大的分享 受 ...

本板有哪些高手的文章值得一看?

Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2009-04-12T00:50
掯~我撐了2年多,那我不就是高高手 當初我剛做期貨的時候,再版上就有人說,新手稱不過半年就會被洗出場。 版上有些人講的話,看看就算了,講的好像k線是他家畫得一樣 有些事情近看反而會迷失,遠看才明瞭!! ※ 引述《sapdavid (Impossible is Nothing)》之銘言: : ※ 引述《newr ...

有沒有人可以提供我今年1月到2月的5分k線。

Heather avatar
By Heather
at 2009-04-12T00:35
小弟平常會從eleader定期下載, 可是2009 1 月 2月的台指5分k 不小心被刪掉了。 有大大可以給我的嗎? 或告訴我那可抓到 我只要2009 1月跟2月的。 (Eleader 只能抓2000根K,所以現在我也無法找到。) - ...

關於無參數程式

Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2009-04-11T23:26
最近在文章回顧時,看到有關 無參數程式 不懂的是,幾乎所有用到的技術指標,都必須要設定參數 KD 也要設定幾日 KD,基本的均線也有 五日十日 那到底什麼叫無參數程式呢 ?? 可否舉例說明 - ...