The Week Ahead - Inflation data, China - 股票

原文標題：

The Week Ahead - Inflation data, China LPR, Central Banks
本周前瞻--通脹資料、中國LPR、央行。
ps:今天找個馬來西亞觀點的新聞來看看

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/Q72oY2

發布時間：

Monday, 22 Mar 2021

原文內容：

Inflation data

THE Statistics Department is expected to report on the consumer price index
(CPI) for February 2021 on Wednesday.

Economists expect inflation to decline 0.5% in February although crude oil is
in the mid-US$60 (RM250).

CPI declined 0.2% in January 2021 to 122.1 as against 122.4 in the same month
of the preceding year.

The government decided to cap the retail prices of RON95 petrol and diesel at
RM2.05 and RM2.15 per litre respectively last month to protect consumers from
the effects of any drastic spike in oil prices.

ING says a common thread in most inflation data lately is the transmission of
rising global oil prices into domestic fuel and transport prices and a
further broadening out to other inflation components.

It adds that Malaysia and Singapore are standouts for the administrative fuel
price hikes. However, ING points out that the dampening effects of the
Covid-19 movement restrictions on consumer spending have outweighed higher
fuel prices and this pushed headline inflation deeper into negative territory
in February.Meanwhile, Bank Negara is expected to release its international
reserves as at March 15 today.

China LPR

THE People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will decide on its one-year and five-year
loan prime rates (LPR) this week.

The one-year LPR was last at 3.85%, and the five-year rate stood at 4.65%.

According to a Bloomberg poll, it is again a unanimous agreement among all
the 22 economists for the one-year LPR and the five-year LPR fixings to be
unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research also shares the same view noting that
China has said there would be “no sudden U-turn” of policy operations
though emphasising that monetary policy would be more flexible despite the
recent draining of liquidity from the system.

Targeted support for key sectors and weaker parts of the economy is needed
given an expected easing of fiscal support, risk from rising bond defaults
and the Covid-19 uncertainty.As such, UOB maintains its forecast for an
unchanged LPR for the rest of 2021.

Watch the central banks

BANK of Thailand (BoT) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will decide on
their policies this week.

All the 11 economists in a Bloomberg survey, expect the BoT to keep the
policy rate steady at 0.5%.

ING does not anticipate any policy actions at the two central bank meetings
in the Philippines and Thailand.

Even so, there will be a great deal of interest in BSP’s meeting as
inflation has exceeded the 4% policy limit in recent months, while the raging
Covid-19 spread is taking a toll on economic growth.

ING believes BSP will see through inflation and instead focus on growth. ING
anticipates the BSP leaving the interest rate policy on hold throughout 2021.

UOB expects BSP to extend its rate pause until year-end for now.

The seven economists polled expect the BSP to keep the overnight reverse
repurchase rate steady at 2.0%.

機翻如下： (感謝RunForestRun推薦DeepL)

本周前瞻--通脹資料、中國LPR、央行。

通貨膨脹資料

統計局將於週三報告2021年2月的消費者價格指數（CPI）。

經濟學家預計2月通脹率將下降0.5%，雖然原油在60美元（250令吉）左右。

2021年1月CPI下降0.2%至122.1，上年同期為122.4。

政府上月決定將RON95汽油和柴油的零售價上限分別定為每公升2.05令吉和2.15令吉，以
保護消費者免受油價大幅飆升的影響。

ING表示，近期大多數通脹資料的一個共同點是，全球油價上漲傳導到國內燃料和運輸價
格，並進一步擴大到其他通脹成分。

它補充說，馬來西亞和新加坡是行政燃油價格上漲的突出者。然而，ING指出，Covid-19
運動限制對消費者支出的抑制作用已經超過了燃料價格的上漲，這使得2月份的總體通脹
率更深地進入負值區域.與此同時，國家銀行預計將於今天發佈截至3月15日的國際儲備。

中國LPR

中國人民銀行（PBoC）將在本周決定一年期和五年期貸款最優惠利率（LPR）。

一年期LPR上次為3.85%，五年期為4.65%。

根據彭博社的調查，又是所有22位經濟學家一致同意一年期LPR和五年期LPR定值分別維持
在3.85%和4.65%不變。

大華銀行全球經濟與市場研究部也持相同觀點，指出中國已表示政策操作 "不會突然轉向
"，但強調儘管近期系統內流動性流失，但貨幣政策將更加靈活。

鑒於財政支持的預期放鬆、債券違約率上升的風險和Covid-19的不確定性，需要對關鍵行
業和經濟較弱的部分進行有針對性的支援.因此，大華銀行維持對2021年剩餘時間LPR不變
的預測。

關注央行

泰國央行(BoT)和菲律賓中央銀行(BSP)將在本周決定其政策。

彭博社調查的11位經濟學家，均預計泰國央行將維持政策利率在0.5%。

ING預計在菲律賓和泰國的兩次央行會議上不會有任何政策行動。

即便如此，BSP的會議仍將備受關注，因為最近幾個月通脹率已經超過了4%的政策限制，
同時肆虐的COVID-19也對經濟增長造成了影響。

ING認為BSP將看破通脹，轉而關注增長。ING預計BSP在整個2021年都將保持利率政策擱置
。

大華銀行預計BSP將暫時延長利率暫停至年底。

接受調查的7位經濟學家預計BSP將維持隔夜逆回購利率穩定在2.0%



心得/評論：

看起來東南亞和日本都是跟美國走了
雖然通膨數字越來越難看
但是還是優先照顧成長而非壓通膨
雖然土耳其、俄羅斯、巴西是升息

有炒房地產和金融發展較好的區域會比較有吸收通膨壓力的空間
至少目前看起來是這樣
現在就要回過頭來看通膨會不會從原物料端回過頭來施壓各國物價

上禮拜清零股票，如果東南亞國家都是維持這個態度的話
晚上會先挑一些股票大概放30%資金進場
看起來派對繼續的機率比較高

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