Technical analysis - 財經

by kickass@road of trade

If everybody is a technical analyst( and I think everybody is one) and sell
and they look at the same chart or use the same indicators !! they would
reach the SAME decision to buy/sell.

Now, IF 90% of traders in the market have already have a short position (LIKE
TODAY, 8/21) because of their technical indicators

WILL THE MARKET STILL GO DOWN????
technical analsis IS USELESS BY ITSELF...
IT'S USEFUL WHEN everyone USE IT and it fails everyone 's expectation of its
usefullness..

Sounds confusing? it took me a long time and a lot of money to figure it out,
now, go and think about it..

==

I am also ONLY defending my case...

1.大家或許都看同樣的圖沒錯，但解讀卻可能完全不同，所做的動作也會不同。這段從
4044~5xxx的漲勢，大家看的圖都一樣，但有許多人做多也許多人做空，不代表所有看一
樣圖的人結果都一樣

true, and that's ALSO my point. . In the end, technical is still base on
price and time. and there are many STANDARD INTERPRETATION of indicators or
patterns. What I am saying is that most of these standard ways of trading a
chart pattern has a 50/50 chance of winning(losing). It's MORE profitable to
trade AGAINST THEM because you know when these pattern FAIL AND SURPIRSE
EVERYONE, everybody is WRONG and have to get out.

As I have said, technicals is useful ONLY because everybody ELSE think they
are useful..

2.有人買就有人賣，有1萬口的空單，就有1萬口的多單，只是每個人的週期或許不同、成
本位置也不同，如此罷了

that's stating the obvious..what does that have to do with price movement??
how does price move?? When people use market orders to hit the bid/offer, and
why would they do that? to cut losses when they are WRONG. Fundamental
analyst don't cut losses, but majority of technical analyst cut their losses.

So we have a situation where price move BECAUSE technical analyst cut their
losses WHEN THEY ARE WRONG, (of course..this is not the reason for EVERY
market movement) . In this case, doesn't it sound logical to TRADE AGAINST
TECHNICAL ANAYLSIS to profit from their losses???

If we come back to the question of whether technicals USEFUL? of course..they
are!! they are great tools to trade AGAINST simply because too many people
use them..but using them in their textbook format is a suicide and from that
pespective, technicals are absoultely USELESS..


4."技術分析"一詞實在太廣了，或許80%的技術分析真的無用，但另外20%確實有用。再者
，就算單靠技術分析無法賺錢，但如果配合資金控管可以讓你賺錢，那麼這兩者的組合就
是有用

I think we are more in agreement than in disagreement, I don't want to argue
just for the sake of creating a argument. It's easy to be accused of mental
masturbation.

My point is if 80% of it is useless, than saying it is "technicals is useful"
is not EXACTLY a accurate statement..don't you agree???

It's much easier to take the 20% out and name it something else, and it's
called trend-following..

--
"We have to understand the possible and positive relation between technology,
culture and politics. They are not enemies. Tech is more than work and money.
Culture is more than just some temples or paintings. Politics is not owned by
the politicians or the media manipulation channels."
---Geert Lovink

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