Shell second quarter 2020 update note - 股票

1.原文連結：
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2.原文內容：

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以下原文
June 30, 2020 02:00 ET煺嚒ource:嘞oyal Dutch Shell

The Hague, June 30, 2020 -糍his is an update to the second quarter 2020 outloo
k provided in the first quarter results announcement on April 30, 2020. The im
pacts presented here may vary from the actual results and are subject to final
isation of the second quarter 2020 results.

Unless otherwise indicated, presented post-tax earnings impacts relate to earn
ings on a current cost of supplies basis, attributable to shareholders, exclud
ing identified items.

In addition, given the impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing challenging commodit
y price environment, Shell continues to adapt to ensure the business remains r
esilient. In light of this, Shell is announcing today a revised long-term comm
odity prices and margin outlook, which is expected to result in non-cash impai
rments in the second quarter results. Details of the outlook and impairments a
re provided in the later part of this document.

Integrated Gas

Production is expected to be between 880 and 910 thousand barrels of oil equiv
alent per day

LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to be between 8.1 and 8.5 million tonnes

Additional well write-offs in the range of $250 to $350 million are expected c
ompared with the second quarter 2019. No cash impact is expected in the second
quarter

Deferred tax charges are expected to have a negative impact on earnings in the
range of $100 to $200 million. No cash impact is expected in the second quart
er

Trading and optimisation results are expected to be below average?

As previously communicated, more than 90% of our term contracts for LNG sales
in 2019 were oil price linked with a price-lag of typically 3-6 months. Conseq
uently, the impact of lower oil prices on LNG margins became more prominent fr
om June onwards

CFFO in Integrated Gas can be impacted by margining resulting from movements i
n the forward commodity curves. Margining inflows are not expected to be signi
ficantly different from those received in the first quarter 2020

Upstream

Production is expected to be between 2,300 and 2,400 thousand barrels of oil e
quivalent per day. Although this production range is higher compared with the
outlook previously provided, it has had a limited impact on earnings in the cu
rrent macro environment

Updates related to receivables and inventory provisions are expected to have a
negative earnings impact in the range of $200 to $400 million compared with t
he second quarter 2019. No cash impact is expected in the second quarter

As previously communicated, CFFO is expected to be negatively impacted by the
Lula unitisation settlement in Brazil of around $500 million, for which the ea
rnings impact was recognised in the third quarter 2018

While earnings are expected to show a loss, CFFO is not expected to reflect eq
uivalent cash tax receipts due to the build-up of deferred tax positions in a
number of countries. Additionally, due to phasing impacts, tax payments are ex
pected in the second quarter

Oil Products

Refinery utilisation is expected to be between 67% and 71%

Realised gross refining margins are expected to be significantly lower compare
d with the first quarter 2020 and are expected to be offset by higher trading
and optimisation results

Oil Products sales volumes are expected to be between 3,500 and 4,500 thousand
barrels per day, driven by a significant drop in demand related to the impact
of COVID-19

Updates related to receivables provisions are expected to have a negative earn
ings impact in the range of $200 to $300 million. No cash impact is expected i
n the second quarter

Working capital in Oil Products are typically impacted by movements between th
e quarter opening and closing price of crude along with changes in inventory v
olumes. Inventory volumes are expected to be higher compared with the end of t
he first quarter 2020, impacting working capital negatively

Chemicals

Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation is expected to be between 75% and 79
%

Chemicals sales volumes are expected to be between 3,400 and 3,700 thousand to
nnes

Corporate

Corporate segment earnings excluding identified items are expected to be a net
expense at the lower end of the $800 to $875 million range for the second qua
rter. This excludes the impact of currency exchange rate effects

CFFO is expected to be impacted by a working capital outflow in respect of mar
gining and settlement of operational foreign exchange instruments


Revised commodity price and margin outlook and impairments

In the second quarter 2020, Shell has revised its mid and long-term price and
refining margin outlook reflecting the expected effects of the COVID-19 pandem
ic and related macroeconomic as well as energy market demand and supply fundam
entals. This has resulted in the review of a significant portion of Shell’s U
pstream, Integrated Gas and Refining tangible and intangible assets.

The Refining asset valuation updates reflect Shell’s strategy to reshape and
focus its refining portfolio to support the decarbonization of its energy prod
uct mix, leveraging assets and value chains in key markets. The Upstream and I
ntegrated Gas asset valuation updates, including of related exploration and ev
aluation assets, are largely driven by the change in long-term prices with som
e impacts due to a changed view on the development attractiveness. A revision
in the decommissioning and restoration provision discount rate assumption from
3% to 1.75%, reflecting a lower interest rate environment, has impacted the a
sset values tested for impairment.

The following price and margin outlook have been assumed for impairment testin
g:

Brent: $35/bbl (2020), $40/bbl (2021), $50/bbl (2022), $60/bbl (2023) and long
-term $60 (real terms 2020)

Henry Hub: $1.75/MMBtu (2020), $2.5/MMBtu (2021 and 2022), 2.75/MMBtu (2023) a
nd long-term $3.0/MMBtu (real terms 2020)

Average long-term refining margins revised downwards by around 30% from previo
us midcycle downstream assumption

Based on these reviews, aggregate post-tax impairment charges in the range of
$15 to $22 billion are expected in the second quarter. Impairment charges are
reported as identified items and no cash impact is expected in the second quar
ter. Indicative breakdown per segment is as follows:

Integrated Gas $8 – $9 billion, primarily in Australia including partial impa
irment of QGC and Prelude

Upstream $4 – $6 billion, largely in Brazil and North America Shales

Oil Products $3 – $7 billion across the refining portfolio

These impairments are expected to have a pre-tax impact in the range of $20 to
$27 billion. No impairment charge on Goodwill is expected to be recorded in t
he second quarter

Impairment calculations are being progressed: the range and timing of the reco
gnition of impairments in the second quarter are uncertain and assessments are
currently ongoing

The revised outlook for commodity prices and refining margins could impact ove
rall deferred tax positions, which will be reviewed after the finalisation of
the operating plan later in 2020

Other

Gearing is expected to increase by up to 3% due to the impairments. Additional
impacts to reported gearing levels are expected due to pensions revaluations
associated with the current interest rate environment along with other usual q
uarterly movements

As per previous disclosures, CFFO price sensitivity at Shell Group level is st
ill estimated to be $6 billion per annum for each $10 per barrel Brent price m
ovement

Note that this price sensitivity is indicative, is most applicable to smaller
price changes than those in the current environment and in relation to the ful
l-year results. This excludes short-term impacts from working capital movement
s and cost-of-sales adjustments

In order to enhance our disclosures and market communications, a quarterly pre
ss release will be published as of the second quarter 2020, in addition to the
quarterly unaudited results. The quarterly press release will provide a summa
ry of key messages and key performance drivers and should not be considered in
isolation from, or a substitute for, financial information presented in compl
iance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). To further simplif
y market communications, with effect from the second quarter, “CCS earnings a
ttributable to shareholders excluding identified items” will be renamed to “
Adjusted earnings” while the definition remains unchanged

Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly earnings and CFFO excluding working cap
ital movements, managed by VARA research, is scheduled to be opened for submis
sion on July 8, 2020, closed on July 22, 2020, and made public on July 23, 202
0.


3.心得/評論：
重點在油價均價預測
布蘭特原油
2020 35
2021 40

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