Pending home sales plunge for the second straight month - 股票

原文標題：

Pending home sales plunge for the second straight month
待售房屋連續第二個月暴跌

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/V3qz5n

發布時間：

Wed, March 31, 2021, 10:00 PM

原文內容：

Pending home sales, a leading indicator of the health of the housing market,
plunged in February across all regions in the U.S.

The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index, which
tracks the number of homes that are under contract to be sold, fell 10.6% in
February from a month earlier — falling for the second straight month. The
results missed analysts’ expectations of pending home sales declining 3%,
according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Sales for the first time after
eight consecutive months of annual gains, slid 0.5% in February from the same
month a year ago.

“The demand for a home purchase is widespread, multiple offers are
prevalent, and days-on-market are swift but contracts are not clicking due to
record-low inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a press
statement.

The number of homes for sale, otherwise known as inventory, fell to a record
low of 1.03 million units in February, the same as in January, according to
revised NAR data. That was down 29.5% from one year ago — the largest annual
decline on record. Typically you see an increase in inventory from January
and February but that did not occur this year, according to Yun. The tight
supply is pushing home prices up to new record levels.

“If there were a larger pool of inventory to select from — ideally a five-
or a six-month supply — then more buyers would be able to purchase
properties at an affordable price,” said Yun.

Properties typically remained on the market for 20 days in February, down
from 21 days in January and from 36 days in February 2020 — the swiftest
pace since NAR started tracking how many days units stay on the market.
Seventy-four percent of the homes sold in February 2021 were on the market
for less than a month. A year ago there was 3.1 months supply of inventory;
currently there's a two-month supply of inventory at the current sales pace.

“While demand likely remained strong, low inventory will continue to hamper
home sales in the near term,” said Nomura in a recent note.


Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdowns, housing had remained
a bright spot in the U.S. economy last year as pent-up demand, historically
low interest rates and the desire for more space to work from home nudged
homebuyers off the sidelines.

The latest pending home sales results may be a sign that the hot housing
market may be cooling off. This comes as mortgage interest rates inch up
above 3% for the first time since July 2020.

“The housing market of 2021 will be different than that of 2020,” said BofA
Securities in a recent note. “Consider the differences between this 2021 and
2020: mortgage rates are rising, consumers are shifting spending to reopening
activities vs. at-home and we aren't looking at the same degree of pent-up
demand as in early 2020. We think housing activity is set to moderate.”


機翻如下：

作為衡量房市健康狀況的領先指標，2月份美國各地區的待售房屋銷售量大幅下降。

全美房地產經紀人協會(NAR)的待售房屋銷售指數(Pending Home Sales Index)追蹤的是
合同中待售房屋的數量，2月份較上月下降10.6%--連續第二個月下降。根據彭博社的一致
預期，該結果沒有達到分析師預期的待售房屋銷售下降3%。銷售量在連續8個月的年度增
長後首次出現下滑，2月比去年同期下滑0.5%。

NAR首席經濟學家Lawrence Yun在一份新聞聲明中說："購房需求普遍，多次報價盛行，上
市天數迅速，但由於庫存創下新低，合同沒有點擊。"。

根據NAR修正後的資料，2月待售房屋數量，也就是庫存量，降至103萬套的歷史低位，與1
月持平。這比一年前下降了29.5%--創下歷史上最大的年度降幅。通常情況下，你會看到1
月和2月的庫存量增加，但據Yun說，今年沒有出現這種情況。供應緊張正在將房價推高到
新的紀錄水準。

"如果有更大的庫存池可供選擇--理想的情況是5個月或6個月的供應--那麼更多的買家將
能夠以可承受的價格購買房產，"Yun說。

2月份房產通常在市場上停留20天，低於1月份的21天，也低於2020年2月的36天--這是自
NAR開始追蹤單位在市場上停留多少天以來最迅速的速度。2021年2月售出的房屋中，74%
的房屋在市場上停留的時間不到一個月。一年前有3.1個月的庫存供應；按照目前的銷售
速度，目前有兩個月的庫存供應。

"雖然需求可能仍然強勁，但低庫存將在短期內繼續阻礙房屋銷售，"野村在最近的一份說
明中表示。

儘管受到COVID-19疫情和全國性封鎖的影響，但去年住房仍然是美國經濟的一個亮點，因
為積壓的需求、歷史上較低的利率和對更多在家工作空間的渴望，促使購房者不再觀望。

最新的未決房屋銷售結果可能是一個跡象，表明火熱的房市可能正在降溫。此前，抵押貸
款利率自2020年7月以來首次逐步升至3%以上。

"2021年的房市將與2020年的房市不同，"博時證券在最近的一份說明中表示。"考慮到這
個2021年和2020年的差異：抵押貸款利率正在上升，消費者正在將支出轉移到重新開工活
動與在家，我們沒有看到與2020年初相同程度的潛在需求。我們認為住房活動將趨於溫和
。"



心得/評論：

這也難怪美國政府會判斷經濟恢復強勁

雖然我覺得這篇新聞有點為現象找理由的感覺

但是無論如何都反映出來美國房市真的很熱的現象

這應該也是市場判斷民主黨政府可能敢於提早宣布推動加稅

甚至可能提前升息的依據

今晚拜登的講話也許不會引起太大的波動

因為他的講話也許不會偏離市場期待太多

也就是早已被市場price in 了

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