Oil Erases Gain With Growing U.S. Gaso - 股票

原文標題：

Oil Erases Gain With Growing U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles Weighing
美國汽油庫存增加使油價上漲

原文連結：

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-posts-strongest-open-since-002840770.html

發布時間：

Thu, May 6, 2021, 1:12 AM

原文內容：

(Bloomberg) -- Oil retreated from session highs with an increase in gasoline
stockpiles offsetting the biggest U.S. crude inventory decline since January.

Futures headed back toward unchanged after surging as much as 1.6% in London,
nearing the key psychological $70-a-barrel level. An Energy Information
Administration report on Wednesday showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell by
nearly 8 million barrels last week and exports surged by the most on record.
Still, gasoline inventories rose for the fifth straight week, growing to the
highest level since late February.

“The market was ready to follow gasoline to the moon,” said Bob Yawger,
head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. But the EIA report “took
some of the spark” out of optimism that gasoline would lead the energy rally
ahead of the summer driving season.

The spread between Nymex gasoline futures and U.S. benchmark crude headed for
its first decline in seven sessions. The four-week rolling average of
gasoline supplied ticked higher last week, but still remains about half a
million barrels a day lower than the same period in 2019, EIA data showed.

The longer-term demand recovery continues to be underpinned in the U.S. by
the roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines as the country reopens. Beyond headline
prices, the closely watched spread between U.S. benchmark crude’s two
nearest December contracts has widened its bullish backwardation structure
this week, reflecting expectations for an improving supply and demand dynamic.

The crude draw “is indicating that not only is the U.S. economy reopening,
but given the export number, international markets are opening back up as
well,” said Brian Kessens, a portfolio manager at Tortoise, a firm that
manages roughly $8 billion in energy-related assets. “It seems like, at
least in the developed world, we’re seeing pretty constructive reopening”
progress.

While the U.S. and Europe are charting a course for reopening, the Covid-19
crisis in India may yet worsen. Saudi Arabia has lowered its prices for Asian
customers as case numbers in the key crude importer crimp energy demand.
Consultant Facts Global Energy now expects India’s oil-product demand to
drop 670,000 barrels a day in May from March levels, larger than previously
forecast.

Refinery utilization in the U.S. climbed back above its 5-year average more
than a year after the pandemic devastated oil consumption. Pent-up travel
demand in the country is seen spurring a 30% jump in jet fuel use this summer
-- one of the worst-hit parts of the barrel as international travel remains
anemic.

Crude has also gained alongside a broader rally across raw materials that’s
driven the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index to the highest level in almost a
decade. Investors are betting that rising vaccine-aided demand and greater
mobility in key economies will drain crude stockpiles and support higher
prices.

機翻如下：

彭博社）--由於汽油庫存的增加抵消了美國原油庫存自1月以來的最大降幅，石油從盤中
高點回落。

期貨在倫敦飆升了1.6%，接近每桶70美元的關鍵心理價位後，又向著不變的方向發展。能
源資訊署週三的報告顯示，美國上周的原油庫存減少了近800萬桶，出口量創下歷史之最
。不過，汽油庫存還是連續第五周上升，增長到2月底以來的最高水準。

"瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)期貨部主管Bob Yawger說："市場已經準備好跟隨汽油到
月球了。但EIA報告使人們對汽油將在夏季駕駛季節到來之前引領能源反彈的樂觀情緒 "
失去了一些火花"。

Nymex汽油期貨與美國基準原油之間的價差出現了七個交易日以來的首次下降。EIA資料顯
示，上周汽油供應量的四周滾動平均值走高，但仍比2019年同期低約50萬桶/日。

隨著美國重新開放，Covid-19疫苗的推出，美國的長期需求復蘇繼續得到支撐。在標題價
格之外，密切關注的美國基準原油的兩個最近的12月合約之間的價差本周擴大了其看漲的
後向結構，反映了對供需動態改善的預期。

Tortoise公司的投資組合經理Brian Kessens說："原油平倉 "表明，不僅美國經濟在重新
開放，而且考慮到出口數量，國際市場也在重新開放，該公司管理著大約80億美元的能源
相關資產。"看起來，至少在發達國家，我們看到了相當有建設性的重新開放 "進展。

雖然美國和歐洲正在制定重新開放的路線，但印度的Covid-19危機可能還會惡化。沙特已
經降低了對亞洲客戶的價格，因為這個主要原油進口國的案件數量壓制了能源需求。諮詢
機構Facts Global Energy現在預計，5月份印度的石油產品需求將比3月份的水準下降67
萬桶/日，大於之前的預測。

美國的煉油廠利用率在大流行病破壞石油消費一年多後，重新攀升到5年平均水準以上。
美國被抑制的旅行需求被認為刺激了今年夏天噴氣機燃油的使用量猛增30%--由於國際旅
行仍然貧乏，這是桶中受衝擊最嚴重的部分之一。

原油也隨著整個原材料的廣泛反彈而上漲，推動彭博商品現貨指數達到近十年來的最高水
準。投資者押注，主要經濟體在疫苗輔助下的需求上升和流動性增強，將耗盡原油庫存並
支持價格上漲。


心得/評論：

第三世界消費大國的需求因為疫情發展而下降

加上供給持續增加

導致庫存意外上升，造成油價回落

但是隨著美國復甦持續增溫

以及第三世界消費大國的各界投入努力疫情終將獲得控制

持續看好油價後市

回落即是買點

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