'No toilet paper, again?' Brace yourse - 股票

原文標題：

'No toilet paper, again?' Brace yourself for a new wave of shortages
“又沒有衛生紙了嗎？” 為新一輪的短缺浪潮做好準備

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/7yW0Gl

發布時間：

Thu, April 1, 2021, 12:05 AM

原文內容：

Who can forget last year's empty store shelves and pandemic panic shopping,
right? Cleaning products, hand sanitizer and toilet paper were all but
impossible to find, and only recently have name-brand disinfectant wipes and
sprays begun showing up in stores again,

Well, brace yourself, because another product shortage is looming — and yes,
it may very well become tough to find toilet paper again.

Major problems with international shipping are likely to make t.p. and some
other items scarce, and could bring a return of hoarding. Here's a lowdown on
the situation, plus some tips on how to keep getting what you need, and at
the right price.

Two crises at sea

Products are having difficulty getting to their destinations around the world
because of twin crises on the high seas that have simultaneously bogged down
global commerce.

For six days, Egypt's Suez Canal was blocked by a giant cargo vessel that got
stuck and held up hundreds of other ships on a route that handles about 12%
of world trade. The Ever Given — about as long as the Empire State Building
is tall — was finally freed Monday, but analysts say it could take more than
a week to clear the backup.

Meanwhile, a shortage of shipping containers also is causing problems in the
cargo transport industry. Many of the factories that build the giant metal
boxes are in China — and a number of them shut down in the early days of the
COVID crisis, cutting supplies short.

The companies that produce the containers were caught off guard as
international trade started to rebound from the pandemic during the second
half of 2020. A wide range of things, including cars, clothing, toys and raw
materials, ship in the containers, so manufacturers are having difficulty
getting their goods to market.

Which products will be affected?
Grocery prices were already rising faster than inflation. Now, shortages
related to the shipping troubles could push up prices for an array of items —
and force you to find creative ways to save.

Given the situation in the Suez Canal and the container crunch, several types
of products could become harder to find before long.

1. Toilet paper

One of the companies impacted by the container crisis is Suzano SA. The
Brazilian company is the world’s largest producer of wood pulp, used to make
toilet paper, and it's warning that the lack of containers could slow
shipments to its production partners.

Suzano CEO Walter Schalka told Bloomberg his company shipped less product in
March than anticipated and has been forced to delay some shipments into
April. A global shortage is possible.

Dreading a return of last year's barren toilet paper aisles and inflated
prices? To help relieve supermarket stress, use an app when you shop that
rounds up your purchases to the nearest dollar and invests your "spare
change." Then, you just watch the money grow.

2. Furniture

Deliveries of furniture are being affected by the shipping industry issues.
La-Z-Boy recently said on an earnings call that customers can expect to wait
for their new sofas and chairs anywhere from five to nine months after
placing their orders.

Congestion at ports in Southern California, where many containers from Asia
arrive, has been an issue for months.

And the Suez shutdown held up shipments of furniture from Ikea, which is
based in Sweden. "The blockage of the Suez Canal is an additional constraint
to an already challenging and volatile situation for global supply chains
brought on by the pandemic," Ikea said in a statement.

3. Cheese

The wholesale club chain Costco recently blamed a shortage of imported cheese
on the shipping container shortfall. The retailer cited issues at ports along
the West Coast, from Seattle down through California.

"Overseas freight has continued to be an issue in regards to container
shortage and port delays," Costco chief financial officer Richard Galanti
told analysts on a call in March. "This has caused timing delays on certain
categories."

Galanti said Costco also has had trouble keeping its giant stores stocked
with furniture, sporting goods and lawn equipment, in addition to other
imported food items like seafood and olive oils.

4. Coffee

The Suez Canal blockage has stalled some shipments of coffee, specifically
the type used to make instant coffee like Nescafe.

The Suez is a major shipping route from Vietnam — the world’s largest
producer of robusta coffee, used in instant coffee — so a scarcity of beans
could soon be felt at coffee shops and in supermarkets.

If you plan to stock up on java, be sure to use an app that rewards you with
cash back on your grocery shopping — just for snapping photos of your store
receipts.

Stay ahead and shop smart

As we saw last year, retailers may put limits on high-demand items that are
in short supply — to keep shoppers from filling their carts with every last
package of toilet paper or bottle of olive oil on the shelves.

If you do decide to make a few big grocery hauls, be careful with not to
overextend yourself on your credit cards. If you've been relying heavily on
your plastic during the pandemic, consider rolling your balances into a
lower-interest debt consolidation loan, to help pay off your credit card debt
more affordably and quickly.

Watch for deals and rewards to get the most for your money, even if the ol'
law of supply and demand puts pressure on some prices. For example, you might
download a free browser extension that will automatically hunt for better
prices and coupons whenever you shop online.

And this might be the most important tip of all: Don't panic. The Suez Canal
should be back to normal soon, and the production of shipping containers will
ramp up. In the meantime, there are plenty of stores and product suppliers —
so if one retailer is out of toilet paper, just keep looking and asking
around. Trust us, you will find some.

機翻如下：

誰能忘記去年空蕩蕩的商店貨架和大面積的恐慌性購物吧？清潔用品、洗手液和衛生紙都
找不到，直到最近，名牌消毒濕巾和噴霧劑才又開始出現在商店裡。

好吧，請做好準備，因為另一種產品短缺正在逼近--是的，很可能再次變得很難找到衛生
紙。

國際運輸的主要問題很可能使T.P.和其他一些項目稀缺，並可能帶來囤積的回報。以下是
關於這種情況的簡要介紹，還有一些關於如何以合適的價格買到你需要的東西的提示。

海上的兩個危機

由於公海上的雙重危機同時阻礙了全球商業的發展，產品很難到達世界各地的目的地。

埃及的蘇伊士運河被一艘巨大的貨輪堵了六天，這艘貨輪被卡住了，並在這條處理約12%
世界貿易的航線上阻擋了數百艘其他船隻。Ever Given號--大約和帝國大廈一樣高--終於
在週一獲得自由，但分析人士表示，可能需要一周以上的時間來清理備份。

與此同時，航運貨櫃的短缺也給貨物運輸業帶來了問題。許多製造巨型金屬箱的工廠都在
中國--在COVID危機的早期，其中一些工廠就關閉了，導致供應短缺。

隨著2020年下半年國際貿易開始從疫情中反彈，生產這些貨櫃的公司措手不及。包括汽車
、服裝、玩具和原材料在內的各種東西都是用貨櫃運輸的，因此製造商很難將貨物推向市
場。

哪些產品會受到影響？
雜貨價格的上漲速度已經超過了通貨膨脹率。現在，與運輸麻煩有關的短缺可能會推高一
系列商品的價格--並迫使你尋找創造性的節約方式。

鑒於蘇伊士運河的局勢和貨櫃緊縮，不久之後，有幾類產品可能會變得更難找到。

1. 衛生紙

受貨櫃危機影響的公司之一是Suzano SA。這家巴西公司是世界上最大的木漿生產商，用
於製造衛生紙，它警告說，貨櫃的缺乏可能會減緩對其生產夥伴的出貨。

Suzano首席執行官Walter Schalka告訴彭博社，該公司3月份的產品出貨量比預期的要少
，被迫將部分出貨量推遲到4月份。全球性的短缺是可能的。

擔心去年貧瘠的衛生紙貨架和虛高的價格再次出現？為了幫助緩解超市壓力，當你購物時
使用一個應用程式，將你的購物額四捨五入到最接近的美元，並將你的 "零錢 "進行投資
。然後，你就看著錢增長吧。

2. 傢俱

傢俱的交付受到航運業問題的影響。La-Z-Boy最近在一次財報電話會議上表示，客戶在下
訂單後，預計要等5到9個月才能拿到新沙發和椅子。

許多來自亞洲的貨櫃抵達的南加州港口的擁堵問題已經持續了數月。

而蘇伊士運河的關閉也阻礙了總部位於瑞典的宜家傢俱的運輸。"蘇伊士運河的封鎖對疫
情帶來的全球供應鏈本已充滿挑戰和動盪的局面來說是一個額外的制約因素，"宜家在一
份聲明中說。

3. 芝士

批發俱樂部連鎖店Costco最近將進口乳酪的短缺歸咎於海運貨櫃的短缺。這家零售商提到
了西海岸的港口問題，從西雅圖一直到加州。

"在貨櫃短缺和港口延誤方面，海外貨運仍然是一個問題，"Costco首席財務官Richard
Galanti在3月份的一次電話會議上告訴分析師。"這導致了某些品類的時間延誤。"

Galanti表示，除了海鮮和橄欖油等其他進口食品外，Costco還難以保證其巨型商店的傢
俱、體育用品和草坪設備的庫存。

4. 咖啡

蘇伊士運河的堵塞使一些咖啡的運輸停滯不前，特別是用於製作雀巢咖啡等即溶咖啡的類
型。

蘇伊士運河是來自越南的主要運輸路線--越南是世界上最大的魯棒咖啡生產國，用於即溶
咖啡--所以咖啡店和超市里很快就能感受到咖啡豆的稀缺。

如果你打算囤積咖啡豆，一定要使用一款應用程式，它可以獎勵你在雜貨店購物時獲得現
金回饋--只需拍下商店收據的照片。

領先一步，聰明購物

正如我們去年所看到的那樣，零售商可能會對供不應求的高需求商品進行限制--以防止購
物者將貨架上的最後一包衛生紙或一瓶橄欖油裝滿購物車。

如果你決定做一些大的雜貨運輸，要注意不要過度使用信用卡。如果您在疫情期間嚴重依
賴您的信用卡，可以考慮將您的餘額轉為低息債務合併貸款，以幫助您更經濟和快速地償
還信用卡債務。

留意優惠和獎勵，讓你的錢花得最有效果，即使老式的供需法則對一些價格造成壓力。例
如，你可以下載一個免費的流覽器擴充程式，每當你在網上購物時，它就會自動搜尋更優
惠的價格和優惠券。

而這可能是最重要的提示。不要驚慌。蘇伊士運河應該很快就會恢復正常，海運貨櫃的生
產也會加快。在此期間，有很多商店和產品供應商--所以如果一家零售商沒有衛生紙，只
要繼續尋找和詢問周圍的情況。相信我們，你會找到一些。


心得/評論：

雖然貨運終將得到紓解

但是一個月左右的塞車是可以預期的

相信應該也有注意到迪卡農的漲價新聞

目前還是有不少運費漲價是由業者自行吸收

但是因為未來的持續漲價的預期升高

反映成本，並且從出貨端逐步擴散到整個市場的漲價趨勢應該是不可避免

世界各國維持通貨寬鬆的傾向也會助長這個趨勢



從時間順序來看

個人依然看好6月亞非拉國家被迫升息的可能性

由於市場眼光專注在美國

所以屆時第三世界國家的升息新聞會讓市場產生措手不及的心理衝擊

進而引發可能引發一定的市場恐慌



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