Nedbank Says Rand to Drop on Commodities - 理財

重點兩句
1.趁反彈賣掉南非幣
2.南非幣年底可能會貶到USD/ZAR=7.37
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Currency Strategists: Nedbank Says Rand to Drop on Commodities

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should use a recovery in the rand to sell the
currency on speculation lower global economic growth will hurt the price of
the metals that make up about a fifth of South African exports, according to
Nedbank Ltd.

Global economic expansion should slow as the Federal Reserve continues to raise
interest rates in the world's biggest economy, said Nicky Weimar, a senior
Nedbank economist in Johannesburg.

``Commodity prices will come under pressure and will be volatile, and that'll
have negative consequences for our exporters'' and the rand, Weimar said in a
telephone interview.

The currency of Africa's largest economy has risen more than 5 percent since
falling to 7.54 per dollar on June 23, its lowest since January 2004. It may
resume its drop and fall 3 percent from 7.13 at 4:30 p.m. in Johannesburg to
7.37 per dollar by the end of the year, according to Weimar.
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South Africa is the world's largest producer of gold and platinum and the rand
often moves in tandem with the precious metals that account for about a fifth
of exports in the $239 billion economy.

The rand advanced to as high as 6.04 per dollar on May 12, the same day gold
traded at a 26-year peak of $730.40. Since then, the rand has fallen 15 percent
, closely following a 11 percent decline in the price of gold, the country's
single largest export.

Emerging Market Woes

South Africa's currency has also fallen with other emerging markets since May
amid speculation the country it will struggle to plug its growing current
deficit as higher rates in the U.S. and other developed markets lure investors
, starving riskier emerging market assets of cash.

The rand slumped by as much as 3.7 percent to a 29-month low on June 22 after
the central bank said the current account gap, the widest measure of trade in
goods and services, widened to a 24-year high of 6.4 percent of gross domestic
product in the first quarter. A higher deficit implies more rand have to be
converted into dollars to pay for imports.

Gold for immediate delivery was at $649.80 an ounce at 4:15 p.m. in London
today. Platinum, South Africa's No. 2 export, traded at a six-week high of
$1,260.50 an ounce, after slipping from a record $1,340 on May 12.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Lukanyo Mnyanda in Johannesburg at [email protected]
Last Updated: July 12, 2006 10:36 EDT

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