Howard Marks:美股未來數月雖恐大跌 但 - 股票
By Olivia
at 2020-08-02T15:32
at 2020-08-02T15:32
Table of Contents
我最近看了他的書,按照他書中的比喻
現在應該是滿滿一大堆乾燥的柴薪
只需要一點點的火花,就可以燒成猛烈大火
信貸週期應該是高點往下了吧?債務破產家數這麼多
經濟週期短期應該往下吧?GDP數字也出來了
投資心態週期似乎迅速升到最高檔?
最近美股一堆奇奇怪怪的在爆漲,也算是吧?
符合高檔的現象:樂觀、貪婪、大膽冒險、草率
是不是要做個麥當勞下去呢?
還是FED消防隊長成功撲滅火苗?但是地上那些柴薪有解決嗎?
或者變成定時炸彈?就像次貸到期爆炸,銀行也跟著斷頭
這個時間是什麼時候呢?美國選舉當天?年底FED期限?
這本書我還學到一個概念:每個資產的風險報酬是一樣的
也就是說買什麼資產其實都差不多,但是人多的地方不要去
可以買折價的高風險資產,不要買溢價的低風險資產
利潤就這麼少,卻有一堆人擠進來要跟著分,不會有好勝算
而是變成老鼠會,就等著最後一隻老鼠進來
--
現在應該是滿滿一大堆乾燥的柴薪
只需要一點點的火花,就可以燒成猛烈大火
信貸週期應該是高點往下了吧?債務破產家數這麼多
經濟週期短期應該往下吧?GDP數字也出來了
投資心態週期似乎迅速升到最高檔?
最近美股一堆奇奇怪怪的在爆漲,也算是吧?
符合高檔的現象:樂觀、貪婪、大膽冒險、草率
是不是要做個麥當勞下去呢?
還是FED消防隊長成功撲滅火苗?但是地上那些柴薪有解決嗎?
或者變成定時炸彈?就像次貸到期爆炸,銀行也跟著斷頭
這個時間是什麼時候呢?美國選舉當天?年底FED期限?
這本書我還學到一個概念:每個資產的風險報酬是一樣的
也就是說買什麼資產其實都差不多,但是人多的地方不要去
可以買折價的高風險資產,不要買溢價的低風險資產
利潤就這麼少,卻有一堆人擠進來要跟著分,不會有好勝算
而是變成老鼠會,就等著最後一隻老鼠進來
--
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