Global oil markets under pressure as A - 股票

原文標題：

Global oil markets under pressure as Asia destocks, China imports slowed
亞洲去庫存，中國進口放緩，全球油市承壓

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/raoZEx

發布時間：

MARCH 25, 20215:48

原文內容：

(Reuters) - Crude oil producers from Europe, Africa and the United States
faced difficulties selling to Asia, especially China, as buyers took cheaper
oil from storage while refinery maintenance has reduced demand, industry
sources said on Thursday.

Chinese independent refiners, which account for a fifth of the country’s
imports, have slowed imports in the second quarter because of refinery
maintenance, strong Brent prices and a large influx of supplies, including
Iranian oil, in first quarter.

These buyers and others in Asia are lapping up cheap oil offered by traders
under pressure to clear storage after Brent crude flipped into backwardation,
with prices for prompt delivery higher than those for future months, traders
said.

As a result traders were forced to sharply reduce prices for spot cargoes
loading in April and May from Europe, Africa and the United States for
delivery to Asia.

Lockdowns in Europe have also reduced demand, they said.

Graphic: High Brent prices prompts traders to destock, dampen demand for
Atlantic Basin oil -


“Barrels are struggling to find homes in the export market as Asia still isn
’t buying and Europe is struggling as well,” said Scott Shelton, energy
specialist at United ICAP.


Crude grades priced on Brent were worst hit, traders said, as a wide spread
between the global benchmark and Middle East’s Dubai crude price made them
least appealing to Asian buyers.

“China’s demand for (Russian) Urals, West African, CPC Blend oil just
evaporated. Buying from stock is much more interesting for them now,” said a
source with a western trading house.

Caspian CPC Blend crude’s discount to dated Brent widened to $2.85 per
barrel, the lowest since mid-May 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic caused oil
demand to plunge, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

CPC Blend is a popular grade with South Korean refiners, but this month they
also minimized oil purchases amid refinery maintenance and buying from
storage, two traders said.

Unipec, the trading arm of Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, offered six of
its 10 term Angolan crude cargoes in April to the market, traders said.

An April-loading cargo of Angolan Mostarda crude sold this month for $1.50 a
barrel below dated Brent, down over a dollar from levels seen in the previous
month, they said.

“There’s just too much supply so buyers want to see cheap cargoes,” a
Singapore-based trader said.

Graphic: Europe, Africa, U.S. crude prices under pressure from low Asia
demand -

Reduced Asian buying also put pressure on U.S. Gulf Coast grades. WTI at East
Houston, a popular export grade, slumped to the weakest since October this
week as export activity for April has been muted.

U.S. crude arrivals in Asia are expected to drop to about 30 million barrels
in April, the lowest since June 2020, according to initial assessments from
Refinitiv Oil Research on Eikon.

However, the recent drop in Brent crude prices closer to $60 a barrel if
sustained, could help revive Asia’s demand in late June or early July,
traders said.

By that time, Asia’s peak maintenance season would have ended while
inventories would have largely been drawn down, they said.

Reporting by Olga Yagova and Gleb Gorodyankin in MOSCOW, Florence Tan in
SINGAPORE, Noah Browning in LONDON and Devika Krishna Kumar in NEW YORK,
writing by Olga Yagova; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore


機翻如下：

路透社）--行業消息人士週四表示，歐洲、非洲和美國的原油生產商面臨著向亞洲，尤其
是中國銷售的困難，因為買家從庫存中拿走了更便宜的石油，同時煉油廠的維護減少了需
求。

占中國進口量五分之一的中國獨立煉油商在第二季度放緩了進口量，原因是煉油廠維修、
布倫特價格強勁以及包括伊朗石油在內的供應品在第一季度大量湧入。

交易商表示，這些買家和亞洲的其他買家在布倫特原油翻入倒掛後，在清倉壓力下，這些
貿易商提供的廉價油品正在搶購，即時交割的價格高於未來幾個月的價格。

因此，貿易商被迫大幅降低4月和5月從歐洲、非洲和美國裝船運往亞洲的現貨貨物價格。

他們表示，歐洲的鎖船事件也減少了需求。

"由於亞洲仍然不買帳，歐洲也在掙扎，桶在出口市場上很難找到家。"聯合ICAP的能源專
家Scott Shelton說。

交易商表示，以布倫特定價的原油牌號受到的衝擊最大，因為全球基準與中東迪拜原油價
格之間的巨大差價使其對亞洲買家的吸引力最小。

"中國對(俄羅斯)烏拉爾、西非、中共混合油的需求就這樣蒸發了。對他們來說，現在從
股票上購買更有趣，"一家西方貿易公司的消息人士說。

Refinitiv Eikon資料顯示，裡海CPC混合原油對日期布倫特的貼水擴大至每桶2.85美元，
為2020年5月中旬以來最低，當時COVID-19大流行導致石油需求大幅下降。

兩位原交易商表示，CPC混油是韓國煉油商的熱門牌號，但本月他們也在煉油廠維護和從
庫存購買的情況下，儘量減少石油採購。

交易商稱，亞洲最大煉油商中石化的貿易部門Unipec在4月份向市場提供了10批安哥拉原
油貨物中的6批。

他們說，4月份裝運的一批安哥拉莫斯塔爾達原油本月以低於日期布倫特1.5美元/桶的價
格出售，比上月的水準下降了1美元以上。

"供應太多，所以買家希望看到便宜的貨物，"一位新加坡的貿易商說。

亞洲買盤減少也給美國海灣地區牌號帶來壓力。由於4月出口活動清淡，熱門出口牌號東
休斯頓WTI本周下滑至10月以來最弱。

根據Refinitiv Oil Research對Eikon的初步評估，預計4月份亞洲的美國原油到港量將降
至約3000萬桶，為2020年6月以來最低。

不過，交易商表示，近期布倫特原油價格接近每桶60美元的跌幅若能持續，將有助於在6
月底或7月初重振亞洲需求。

他們表示，屆時亞洲的維修旺季將結束，而庫存將基本被拉低。

報導：Olga Yagova和Gleb Gorodyankin在莫斯科，Florence Tan在新加坡，Noah
Browning在倫敦，Devika Krishna Kumar在紐約，寫作：Olga Yagova；編輯：Simon
Cameron-Moore。


心得/評論：

煉油廠維修 -> 現貨漲 -> 庫存比較便宜 -> 消化庫存壓制價格

六、七月結束維修且庫存消化完畢

適逢亞洲陸續疫情解封，需求上升

油價飆升 -> 經濟復甦 -> 短期內高速推升通膨 -> 升息壓力

4、5月 無實際通膨疑慮

5月之前樂觀投資大盤，5月底開始做好準備


--