FED升息後 一些利率上的觀察 - 股票QA
By Ursula
at 2022-05-07T02:25
at 2022-05-07T02:25
Table of Contents
5/5號 FED將聯邦基金利率目標調整到0.75~1.00%之後
5/5號利率變動如下
有效聯邦基金: 0.83%
隔夜銀行資金利率: 0.82%
SOFR: 0.79%
BGCR: 0.80%
TGCR: 0.80%
從以上利率觀察 皆在目標利率之內 也表示在銀行短期部分資金正常
但若觀察公債市場
1月期公債 0.49%
2月期公債 0.71%
3月期公債 0.85%
短期公債 特別是一月期公債竟然跑不到目標利率內
推估貨幣基金的部分出現蠻大的問題
且從逆回購市場一直暴增的狀況 銀行也是不斷鼓勵存戶將短期資金移動到貨幣基金上
導致貨幣基金不斷資金湧入但投資標的卻無增加的情況下
造成短期公債利率下壓 短期票券的狀況應該也是差不多
個人認為這是海外資金退潮 瘋狂的湧入美元市場
推測未來將會造成類似亞洲金融危機那種情況
所以主戰場應該不會出現在美國上
其實這也表明 目前FED縮表的力道實在太小 無法負荷大量資金流入美元市場
而銀行又一直把短期資金引流到逆回購(是有限額的)或是貨幣基金上
越是這樣 海外資金就更急著回流到美元
因此未來 FED在面對通膨的同時 另一方面又要擔心短期利率掉下來
我們可以試想短期公債或是短期票券利率持續壓低
但中長期公債或是票券利率持續上揚的狀況下
誰會從中獲利 誰會從中損失
結論
目前美國本土有滿滿的大量短期現金 你股市跌 你中長期公債也跌
你還在慢慢縮表?
大量的現金就不怕亂跑 跑到原物料市場 商品市場 房地產
我想從5/5號之後的市場變動過後 FED一定也有觀察到
FED之後的會議動作會變得更大
這時候重創的反而是美國以外的海外各國
所以有些顧問或是經濟學家說 會形成像是過去的亞洲金融風暴或是歐債危機
觀點是正確的
反正美國死道友不死貧道
--
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