Elon Musk Weighs In on the Global Chip - 股票

原文標題：

Elon Musk Weighs In on the Global Chip Shortage in One Twitter
伊隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）在一個Twitter中稱全球芯片短缺

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/9ZaKGV

發布時間：

Updated April 8, 2021 11:17 am ET / Original April 8, 2021 10:45 am ET

原文內容：

The global automotive supply chain has been roiled in 2021 by an unusual
microchip shortage. Everyone is talking about it, from Wall Street analysts
to auto makers

GM’s Earnings Outlook Underwhelmed. Why Wall Street Still Likes the Stock.
General Motors beat Wall Street's fourth-quarter earnings estimates, but 2021
guidance left a little to be desired. Analysts, however, are still bullish on
GM stock, focusing on EV investment plans

Continue reading to auto suppliers. Even auto dealers are talking about the
impact of the shortage on their businesses.

Everyone is talking about it, that is, except Tesla (ticker: TSLA). The
electric-vehicle maker is notoriously tight-lipped about almost everything.
CEO Elon Musk isn’t, though, and a Thursday tweet seems to indicate that
things might be going better for Tesla than for its rivals. That could show
up in Tesla’s second-quarter earnings, which are due in late April.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1380093374833729537

It wasn’t a long or controversial tweet. Just one that thanked suppliers for
getting Tesla critical parts. “This could be important,” Tesla investor
Gary Black tells Barron’s. Black is a former Wall Street analyst and former
executive at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He is an important voice on
Tesla stock, and more than 71,000 Twitter followers listen to his views on
the EV industry. The tweet means “either that 1Q results weren’t impacted
by the chip shortage, or that issues holding back production [and] deliveries
of new S/X resolved,” Black says.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1380124149809618948

Tesla produced zero Model S and X vehicles in the first quarter. Both
vehicles are due for a product “refresh”—an upgrade in looks, features,
and interiors. The refresh might have affected production, or the company may
have simply allocated a limited number of chips to higher-volume models.

Reduced production and product prioritization aren’t surprises. General
Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) have already called the chip shortage a
billion-dollar headwind to 2021 profits. GM and Ford—along with a host of
other auto makers, including Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO)—have seen production
impacted by a lack of parts.

Black believes Musk’s tweet is a bullish sign, but he qualifies as a Tesla
bull. He’s owned the stock for long stretches and has a $960 price target
for shares. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is also a bull, rating shares
Buy with an $880 price target. He weighed into the parts-shortage debate
Thursday with another take: Tesla might be a beneficiary of recent
developments, but they aren’t the only one.

He sees far wider-ranging impacts from the chip shortage than just reduced
production. “We are seeing levels of light vehicle inventory tightness that
goes beyond anything we have ever seen,” wrote Jonas in a Wednesday evening
report. Both used- and new-car pricing are getting a huge boost from a lack
of cars. Dealers are telling Jonas many vehicles are selling at “list plus”
pricing.

And Jonas sees the positive effects of the shortage stretching into 2022.
This year “is a year of contained volume and strong price/mix,” writes the
analyst, adding that “2022 is setting up to be a year of satiated volume
[and] pent up demand.”

Positives outweighing negative might be one reason GM and Ford stocks are on
fire. Both are up more than 40% year to date, easily beating the comparable
returns of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Tesla shares, however, aren’t doing nearly as well. The stock is down
roughly 4% year to date and 25% from its January 52-week high. Solving the
chip shortage problem faster than other auto makers might help Tesla stock
make up some recent lost ground.

Tesla stock was up 2.6%, at $688.50, in recent trading. The S&P 500 was up
0.3%.

機翻如下：

2021年，全球汽車供應鏈已經被異常的微晶片短缺所攪亂。從華爾街分析師到汽車製造商
，每個人都在談論這個問題。

通用汽車的盈利前景不樂觀。為什麼華爾街還是喜歡這只股票。

通用汽車第四季度盈利超出了華爾街的預期，但2021年的指導意見卻有些不盡如人意。不
過，分析師仍看好通用汽車股票，重點關注電動車投資計畫。
繼續閱讀到汽車供應商。甚至汽車經銷商也在談論短缺對其業務的影響。

每個人都在談論它，那是，除了特斯拉（股票代碼：TSLA）。這家電動車製造商幾乎對所
有事情都諱莫如深。但首席執行官埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk)並不如此，週四的一條推文似
乎表明，特斯拉的情況可能比其競爭對手要好。這可能會顯示在特斯拉的第二季度財報中
，該財報將於4月底發佈。

這不是一條長長的或有爭議的推特。只是一條感謝供應商為特斯拉提供關鍵零部件的推文
。"這可能很重要，"特斯拉投資者加裏-布萊克（Gary Black）告訴《巴倫週刊》。布萊
克是前華爾街分析師、高盛資產管理公司前高管。他是特斯拉股票的重要聲音，超過7.1
萬名Twitter粉絲傾聽他對電動車行業的看法。布萊克表示，這條推文意味著 "要麼1季度
業績沒有受到晶片短缺的影響，要麼是阻礙新S/X生產（和）交付的問題得到解決"。

特斯拉在第一季度生產的Model S和X汽車為零。這兩款車都將進行產品 "刷新"--在外觀
、功能和內飾方面進行升級。刷新可能會影響產量，或者該公司可能只是將有限的晶片分
配給高銷量車型。

產量減少和產品優先順序調整並不令人意外。通用汽車(GM)和福特汽車(F)已經稱晶片短
缺是2021年利潤的十億美元逆風。通用汽車和福特汽車--以及包括中國電動汽車製造商
NIO(NIO)在內的其他眾多汽車製造商，都看到了生產受到零部件短缺的影響。

布萊克認為馬斯克的推特是一個看漲信號，但他有資格成為特斯拉的牛人。他長期持有該
股，目標股價為960美元。摩根士丹利分析師亞當-喬納斯（Adam Jonas）也是一位牛人，
將股票評級為買入，目標價880美元。週四，他以另一種觀點參與了零部件短缺的爭論。
特斯拉可能是近期發展的受益者，但他們不是唯一的受益者。

他認為晶片短缺帶來的影響遠比單純的減產更廣泛。"我們看到的輕型車庫存緊張程度，
超出了我們曾經看到的任何情況。"喬納斯在週三晚間的一份報告中寫道。二手車和新車
的價格都因為缺車而得到了巨大的提升。經銷商告訴喬納斯，許多車輛都以 "清單加 "的
價格出售。

Jonas認為，短缺的積極影響將延續到2022年。分析師寫道："今年 "是量的控制和價格/
組合強勁的一年，"2022年將成為量的飽滿[和]需求的積聚的一年。"

積極因素大於消極因素可能是通用汽車和福特汽車股價火爆的原因之一。兩者年初至今漲
幅均超過40%，輕鬆擊敗標普500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數的可比回報率。

然而，特斯拉股價的表現卻沒有那麼好。該股今年以來下跌了約4%，較1月份的52周高點
下跌了25%。比其他汽車製造商更快地解決晶片短缺問題，可能有助於特斯拉股價彌補近
期的一些失地。

特斯拉股價在最近的交易中上漲2.6%，報688.50美元。標普500指數上漲0.3%。



心得/評論：

看起來特斯拉似乎沒有受到晶片短缺的影響

或者影響很小

如果推測為真

只能說特斯拉可能因為並非傳統車廠

沒有採取傳統車廠的供應鏈管理模式來對待晶片供應商

現在收到很不錯的回報了

而這個因素將會在很長一段時間持續成為特斯拉的優勢

更受晶片供應商支持和青睞，價格和銷量的正循環

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