Bulls face a challenging week - 期貨

Bulls face a challenging week
The Dow's best stretch since the 1930s could hit some resistance in a
holiday-shortened week.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
April 4, 2009: 5:25 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As Wall Street comes off its best four-week run
since the 1930s, investors are getting a bit more confident about the
longevity of the current rally. But should they be?

After hitting 12-year lows, the major gauges have risen for four weeks
straight, with the Dow surging 21.5%, its best four-week run since 1933, when
it gained 31%.

"I feel like we're setting up a real generational low, whether we've seen it
or are near it," said said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan
Keegan. "But I would expect the market to do some backing and filling over
the next six to eight weeks as we get through the bad earnings."

How the stock market reacts to the financial results will be critical, he
said. Dow component Alcoa announces results on Tuesday, but reports don't
start pouring in earnest until later in the month.

This week is something of a pregnant pause for investors, with no first-tier
economic reports on tap and trading limited to four days because of the
holidays.

Passover is on Thursday, and many celebrations begin the night before.
Although financial markets are open both Wednesday and Thursday, attendance
could be lower. Attendance is expected to be especially light on Thursday,
ahead of Good Friday, when all financial markets are closed.

April is typically a strong month on Wall Street except during bear markets.
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, it has been the Dow's best month
since 1950, for an average gain of 1.9%. But during bear markets, April tends
to be a down month, according to the Almanac.

On the docket
Tuesday: Consumer borrowing costs are expected to have fallen by 1.5% in
February, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists. Costs showed a
surprise jump of 1.8% in January. The consumer credit report from the Federal
Reserve is due out at around 2:00 p.m. ET.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), as per usual, is the first Dow component to report
quarterly results. The aluminum maker is expected to have lost 57 cents per
share, according to analysts surveyed by First Call. Alcoa earned 44 cents
per share in the same quarter a year ago. The report is due after the market
close.

Wednesday: The February wholesale inventories report is due in the morning
from the Commerce Department. Inventories are expected to have plunged for
the sixth consecutive month, falling 0.6% after falling 0.7% in January.

The weekly crude inventories report from the Energy Information
Administration is due in the morning.

Passover begins at sundown.

Thursday: March sales from the nation's retailers are due throughout the
month. In February, sales at discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores helped sales
overall to rise, following four straight months of declines. This month,
investors will be looking to see if the consumer is continuing to hang in
despite the recession.

The February trade balance from the Commerce Department is due in the
morning. The trade gap is expected to have widened to $36.5 billion in the
month from $36 billion in January, a six-year low.

Also on Thursday, the government releases the weekly jobless claims report
and the March report on import and export prices.

Friday: All financial markets are closed for Good Friday.


--
資料來源網頁：
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/03/markets/markets_weekahead/index.htm

--