9943好樂迪 壓寶多 - 股票

By Ethan
at 2019-06-20T23:23
at 2019-06-20T23:23
Table of Contents
1. 標的:9943好樂迪
2. 分類:多
3. 分析/正文:
獲利穩定,產業變化慢,可預測性較高。
過去五年ROE約22%,本益比10~13。
因無成長性,所以這本益比剛好。
依這些數據推算合理價,在扣除即將到來的除息,現在67.3,除息後成本只有61.9算是便
宜。
(之所以在併購明朗前買進就是看準高殖利率,實際上成本不高)
近期變數就是與錢櫃的併購案,分述如下:
併購不通過:短空長多,公布日可能下跌,便宜的東西又更便宜,是絕佳加碼機會,故現
在只買一半。
併購通過且不提高收購價:套利空間甚微,那這次買進就算浪費時間,但不提高收購價能
達到併購目標?錢櫃的收購價根本是賤賣好樂迪。
併購通過且提高收購價:因為現在股價接近收購價,如果不調高能否收購成功?尤其錢櫃
目標是100%子公司,至少要收90%,在用現金逐出的方式併購。再者如果併失敗,下次申
請公平會還會準嗎?也要浪費很多行政程序時間。因此我判斷調高機會大。
註:如果收購價在除息後隨除息調低,算沒調整。沒因除息調低收購價,實際上算調高。
4. 進退場機制:(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制)
現價:67.3,買一半,併購失敗下跌時加碼。
退場:長期投資。除財報連續惡化或找到更好的標的,否則不停損。
投資理財有風險,買賣前請自行斟酌。
個人其他標的文追蹤:
未實現
中聯資源 +1.54%
弘帆 +4.52%
晶華 +26.43%
台紙 -1.89%
京城銀 +0.76%
鮮活果汁 +8.48%
已實現(已出場)
王道銀甲特 +0%
和泰車 +28.21%
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