3481群創 小小分析 - 股票

By Mary
at 2021-05-10T23:24
at 2021-05-10T23:24
Table of Contents
1. 標的:3481群創
2. 分類:多
3. 分析/正文:
首先感謝航海王本篇受他啟發而打的
手機打字排版可能有點亂,先說聲抱歉,此為股版首po
為何看多群創?原因來自於面板報價的不斷上漲
很廢話沒錯,但在經過本益比法的評估後覺得股價被低估許多 。
https://i.imgur.com/NUQRlTk.jpg
以上表格是統計到2020年Q2為止,可以看到營收不斷的增長,當然面板報價也是。
我們就可以大膽的假設,在產能滿載之下,面板的報價增長就能與盈利取得一定的線性關係
。
於是開始對數字,從20Q2到Q4營收成長11084(百萬),稅後淨利由-7.19%到12.99%
成長20.14%,於是很簡單的得出稅後淨利每成長1%大約營收要增加555(百萬)。
再拉一條線,我們就可以得出稅後盈利每增加13%,EPS可以增長1。
預期Q1EPS為2.84,我知道這數字很扯,所以不要太相信,但數學又告訴我是對的……
總之會隨時修正,等真正的Q1財報出來,就來對答案。
過去的資料算完了,現在看未來的,要評估面板漲價對營收的影響。
以TREND FORCE的55吋LCDTV報價資料來講,五月上旬來到了驚人的218美元。
https://www.trendforce.com.tw/price/lcd
我們在拉前幾個月的資料來看
https://ctee.com.tw/news/tech/440596.html
我猜測當月的報價會印象到的是下月的營收而不是當月(還是會這麼快?),於是在拉一條
線,
一月營收27512(百萬),四月營收30346(百萬),成長10.3%,
面板報價12月(往前一月)172美元,3月203美元,成長18%,
也就是說可以得到一個面板漲價對應營收的係數為0.572,
分別算出5月及6月營收,再帶入EPS公式為4.21!!!嚇死人
但事情哪有這麼順利,我們保守就預估6月面板價開始跌,一路跌倒年底,第三季收益跌回
第一季水準,第四季跌回20年第四季水準
得到
第一季預估2.84+第二季預估4.21+第三季預估2.84+第四季預估1.05=10.94!!!
我們在保守一點,就像航海王上篇陽明分析的,市場資金就只給4.5倍本益比,
可以得到股價49.23元
如果是6倍就是65.64的天價
如果貨櫃航運都可以噴成這樣,為何報價還再繼續創高的面板股就會跌呢?十分不合理
以上做好玩的分析,不代表投資建議,都是聽火車站前的遊民告訴我的。
4. 進退場機制:
以目前的估值公式
停利49元
停損22.9元(以21/05/10的收盤價-10%計算)
--
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