2年期美債殖利率刷歷史新低 暗示Fed負利 - 股票

By Dorothy
at 2020-05-10T11:56
at 2020-05-10T11:56
Table of Contents
: 美國聯邦基金期貨 2021 年 1 月合約價格,週四一度觸及合約高點 100.05,這意味著預
: 期聯準會可能明年 1 月走向負利率。
: 聯邦基金利率期貨 (Federal Funds 30 Day Futures) 是以美國 30 天期 500 萬美元的
: 聯邦基金為標的物的利率期貨合約,反映市場對於美國聯邦基金利率的預期。
: 若以 100 減去聯邦基金期貨合約報價為負值,隱含市場預期聯邦基金利率將走向負利率
: 。
按照5/8的結算價,市場預期Fed30天利率:
5月底 0.525%
明年2月底 0%
3月底 負0.005%
但是歐洲美元還沒有負利率
利率最低點在明年9月中,之後就上升
利率降低,股市房地產泡沫就繼續吹
利率上升,就有可能破掉
這樣解讀對嗎?
另外我看台銀遠期匯率,美金是續貶
表示台灣實質利率低於美國,泡沫會更嚴重?
股票訂價似乎跟利率關係比較大,基本面沒什麼關係
這點我很難理解,買了要怎麼出貨?
如果有能力印股票換鈔票,那就賺翻了
難怪石油炒不起來,因為石油產量源源不絕,無法壟斷
你越買,阿拉伯人越爽,銷量upUP
股票買光就坐地喊價,等最後一隻老鼠進來套牢
持有也沒什麼成本,利率這麼低
持有石油還要付出昂貴的倉儲費
持有黃金倉儲費用比較低,但是怕各國央行狙擊
--
: 期聯準會可能明年 1 月走向負利率。
: 聯邦基金利率期貨 (Federal Funds 30 Day Futures) 是以美國 30 天期 500 萬美元的
: 聯邦基金為標的物的利率期貨合約,反映市場對於美國聯邦基金利率的預期。
: 若以 100 減去聯邦基金期貨合約報價為負值,隱含市場預期聯邦基金利率將走向負利率
: 。
按照5/8的結算價,市場預期Fed30天利率:
5月底 0.525%
明年2月底 0%
3月底 負0.005%
但是歐洲美元還沒有負利率
利率最低點在明年9月中,之後就上升
利率降低,股市房地產泡沫就繼續吹
利率上升,就有可能破掉
這樣解讀對嗎?
另外我看台銀遠期匯率,美金是續貶
表示台灣實質利率低於美國,泡沫會更嚴重?
股票訂價似乎跟利率關係比較大,基本面沒什麼關係
這點我很難理解,買了要怎麼出貨?
如果有能力印股票換鈔票,那就賺翻了
難怪石油炒不起來,因為石油產量源源不絕,無法壟斷
你越買,阿拉伯人越爽,銷量upUP
股票買光就坐地喊價,等最後一隻老鼠進來套牢
持有也沒什麼成本,利率這麼低
持有石油還要付出昂貴的倉儲費
持有黃金倉儲費用比較低,但是怕各國央行狙擊
--
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