風險?? - 投資
By Charlotte
at 2007-11-15T15:41
at 2007-11-15T15:41
Table of Contents
想請教一個關於風險的問題,
亦即:什麼是高風險資產、什麼是低風險資產。
在投資組合理論的範疇裡所談的「風險」,
是指該資產報酬率的波動度,
一般會用歷年報酬率的標準差來表示。
所以得到的結論就是,
新興市場、產業類股基金屬於高風險資產,
全球型股票、甚至全球型債券則屬於相對低風險的資產。
〈重點在於相對而言〉
這個風險是一般我們說的風險,
也是與共同基金最息息相關的風險。
然而從未來預期報酬的角度來看,
高風險資產 => 高貼現率、低報酬
低風險資產 => 低貼現率、高報酬
若依照這個定義,
我們會發現所謂的低風險資產包括:
今年三月以前的房地產類股、
今年六月以前的新興市場股票、
甚至前不久的礦業、能源類股,
因為他們都是「當下」看來最穩定、最亮眼、報酬最好的標的,
如果不是,
PTT跟基智網上也不會一窩蜂地討論、詢問。
相對地,在此定義下的高風險資產,
是指表現不好、報酬欠佳、近期內可能還有下行疑慮的標的,
像是當下的日本、
1998年的新興市場債券、
1999年的亞洲四小龍。
〈處於跌勢中的地產、公用事業類股不算喔〉
所以這讓我很困惑,
我知道,要追求高的報酬勢必要承擔較高的風險,
然而這裡的風險應該是適用於第二類的定義,
亦即以貼現率的角度來定義風險的高低。
那現在我該投資在哪些「高風險」資產呢??
或者我更廣泛地問:到底什麼是高風險資產??
謝謝
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All Comments
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