關於中美會談結果怎麼看? - 股票
By Ophelia
at 2018-12-03T10:33
at 2018-12-03T10:33
Table of Contents
股版的各位版友大家好,先祝大家在今天的萬點行情都能荷包滿滿
關於中美會談結果,目前市場反應是認為利多,大媽一開也是將近2%
但是對於實際的情況怎麼我總覺得沒那麼樂觀?
首先,中國用口頭上的承諾要『立即』購買美國的農產品、能源、工業產品,
這裡面比較有急迫性的是農產品,因為再不賣出去可能都要爛光了,
急的應該是美國,所以這算是中國釋出的善意,
不過,問題來了,要怎麼買?之前不買,除了中國下令國營單位不買以外,
最主要是中國針對農產品加了關稅,現在說要買,是要這些國營單位關稅吞下去,
還是默默的就把關稅給撤銷了?不撤?國營可能聽話,民營會傻傻的去繳關稅嗎?
這邊我覺得如果中國要兌現承諾,而不是只是拖延戰術,
可能除了把之前加的關稅撤銷以外,甚至可能要像出口一樣進行進口的增值稅補貼,
才有可能讓國營或是民營公司買單去買美國農產品。
反觀美國這邊,他給出的承諾就是90天的寬限期,目前500億的25%、2000億的10%
卻都還是照樣進行,換句話說,美國只是沒有繼續攻擊,但是一步都沒有退啊!
而且還附帶要求在這90天內要能達成美國滿意的協議,
不然90天到,2000億還是變25%。
如果大家有關注這次貿易戰的相關消息,其實美國的立場一直很明確,
他就是表示跟你中國做生意不公平,要求中國要改變,不然我就是關稅懲罰,
美國不像中國有那麼多國營單位,可以直接國家下命令,美國只能是用關稅,
去提高美國公司買中國貨的成本。
從來美國就沒有不願意談,他是願意跟中國談的,反而是中國認為美國加關稅威脅,
所以用關稅反擊,並且態度強硬的說,要戰便戰!中間也停了好一陣子不跟美國談。
現在感覺就是中國花錢招喚時間控制器,回溯90天,然後還是要繼續談,
等於是默認三個月前不談是錯的。
其實這樣也可以看出來,目前2000億的10%,靠著人民幣貶值,
還有中國默默的提高出口退增值稅成數,然後廠商跟勞工勒緊褲帶,還是勉強撐得過,
但是25%是肯定不行了,所以才會在這個時候選擇退一步,換取美國給予時間。
但是回到美國的訴求,中國怎樣才能提出讓美國滿意的方案?
我相信美國也不會真的往死裡打,畢竟拼得魚死網破對雙方都不利,
但是可以預期,美國的霸主地位還是會延續下去,中國這次只能少輸為贏了。
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