銅未來十年供給缺口達市場40%!高盛:採 - 股票
By Hedda
at 2021-05-21T10:31
at 2021-05-21T10:31
Table of Contents
原文標題:銅未來十年供給缺口達市場40%!高盛:採掘業太保守
原文連結:https://tinyurl.com/76rmtfra
發布時間:2021/05/20
原文內容:
高盛4月曾發表研究報告,稱銅為「新的石油」(the new oil),預測銅價將在全球轉換為
乾淨能源之際,於2025年底前跳升至每噸15,000美元。對於為何銅面臨的供給缺口將促使
報價跳高,高盛研究員發表了最新解析。
Business Insider 19日報導,高盛研究人員Nick Snowdon最近在podcast節目上表示,展
望未來10年,銅的供給缺口約略高於800萬公噸,相當於整個市場規模的將近40%,過去史
上從未出現過如此龐大的缺口。
Snowdon強調,短缺問題並非出自銅本身,關鍵在於採礦計畫,「銅的蘊藏量確實足夠,
並無消耗殆盡的問題。然而,銅的採掘計畫目前卻非常有限。」他說,過去12-18個月以
來,從未有新的銅礦挖掘計畫獲得核准。
Snowdon說,採礦業者對資產負債表的態度非常保守,是導致採掘計畫陷入短缺的原因之
一。他直指,採礦業尚未投入初步開發計畫,如今的採掘質量遠不如10年前。即便銅價飆
上歷史高,業界的投資態度也未曾改變。
業者2010年代初期曾大舉擴充採掘方案,但銅價卻在不久後崩盤,積極投入的生產商全都
受到懲罰。Snowdon直指,這份記憶讓當代採礦業者不敢輕言投資。
Snowdon並表示,ESG(指環境(Environmental)、社會(Social)、公司治理(Governance))
計畫也拖慢了採礦計畫獲得批准的速度,新冠肺炎(COVID-19)則對挖掘銅礦造成營運上的
挑戰。
嘉能可:銅價得再飆50%鼓勵投資
物料交易暨礦業巨擘嘉能可(Glencore)執行長Ivan Glasenberg直指,銅價需再漲50%,才
能鼓勵採礦業擴充足夠產能,滿足未來因環保潮流帶動的需求。
英國金融時報報導,Glasenberg 5月6日在該媒體舉辦的「Global Boardroom」峰會上指
出,許多國家已設定要在本世紀中達成「淨零排放」(net-zero emission)目標,而為達
成此一願景,採礦業每年需額外生產100萬噸的銅。然而,他說,採礦難度較低的礦脈,
早已都被開採完畢。
Glasenberg直指,銅價必須攀升至每噸15,000美元,才能鼓勵業者投入難度較高的礦脈開
採作業,除非確定有利可圖、否則不會有人特地這麼做。他並說,新的採礦計畫必須在風
險較高的區域進行,當中包括俄羅斯及非洲部分地區。嘉能可是銅的重要生產商。
Glasenberg還提到特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)收購嘉能可的可能性。特斯拉市值接近6,500億美
元,遠多於嘉能可的570億美元。Glasenberg說,「觀察特斯拉、採礦業目前的市值.....
馬斯克(Elon Musk)可以輕鬆入手嘉能可。」
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式
之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如
因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉。
心得/評論:
銅價看起來又要繼續飆升了
銅字輩的都給我飆起來
--
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