野村策略師:「雷曼式」拋售風險未消除 - 股票

By Caroline
at 2019-08-23T23:14
at 2019-08-23T23:14
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4370876
2.原文內容:
本週美國股市反彈,但在野村證券的宏觀和量化策略師 Masanari Takada 眼中,這種反彈並未改變趨勢,他仍舊認為,在 8 月底或 9 月初,美股將見到「雷曼式」的拋售與崩跌。
本月初,Takada 就提出警告,預期美股最快 8 月會見到如同危機水準的暴跌。隨後美股於上週出現急跌,在 2 年期與 10 年期美債殖利率倒掛之後,道瓊單日急跌 800 點,寫今年以來最大單日跌幅。
Takada 週四發布報告,他認為,如今隨著聯準會主席鮑爾 (Jerome Powell) 即將發表重要演說,而債市的警告信號依然閃爍不停,美股遭遇災難性拋售的可能性依然存在。
Takada 表示,雖然第二次觸底的可能性看起來已經有所下降,但股市在 8 月底或 9 月初大跌的風險並未完全消除。
美股已由上週的急跌反彈,但 8 月道瓊指數仍下跌逾 2%。在 2 年期與 10 年期美債第 3 次倒掛之後,美股週四走跌,隨後交易員決定等待鮑爾言論,助股市回升。
鮑爾與殖利率倒掛為兩大風險
Takada 指出,市場正等待著鮑爾在傑克森霍爾的演說內容,但這可能是觸發美股立即崩跌的潛在風險。他認為,市場近於一廂情願,相信鮑爾會做出溫和談話,但此一想法仍無法確定。
週五之前,多位聯準會官員表達了不願進一步降息的想法。堪薩斯分行總裁 Esther George、費城分行總裁 Patrick Harker、達拉斯分行總裁 Robert Kaplan 均偏向認為,應先觀察一段時間的變化,不需要馬上為經濟提供更多寬鬆。
Takada 表示,要是鮑爾的談話令人失望,那麼避險基金將再次逃離美股。
另一個需要關注的重點,是殖利率倒掛與美國製造業數據疲軟的影響。Takada 認為,如果殖利率曲線發生更深的倒掛,則可能會促使那些採取「買進抱牢」策略的中長期投資者,減少股票的曝險,並轉向債市,進一步加大股市的拋售。
3.心得/評論:
八月底還沒有到
就開始雷曼式拋售了嗎
我還有好多套牢的股票
--
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4370876
2.原文內容:
本週美國股市反彈,但在野村證券的宏觀和量化策略師 Masanari Takada 眼中,這種反彈並未改變趨勢,他仍舊認為,在 8 月底或 9 月初,美股將見到「雷曼式」的拋售與崩跌。
本月初,Takada 就提出警告,預期美股最快 8 月會見到如同危機水準的暴跌。隨後美股於上週出現急跌,在 2 年期與 10 年期美債殖利率倒掛之後,道瓊單日急跌 800 點,寫今年以來最大單日跌幅。
Takada 週四發布報告,他認為,如今隨著聯準會主席鮑爾 (Jerome Powell) 即將發表重要演說,而債市的警告信號依然閃爍不停,美股遭遇災難性拋售的可能性依然存在。
Takada 表示,雖然第二次觸底的可能性看起來已經有所下降,但股市在 8 月底或 9 月初大跌的風險並未完全消除。
美股已由上週的急跌反彈,但 8 月道瓊指數仍下跌逾 2%。在 2 年期與 10 年期美債第 3 次倒掛之後,美股週四走跌,隨後交易員決定等待鮑爾言論,助股市回升。
鮑爾與殖利率倒掛為兩大風險
Takada 指出,市場正等待著鮑爾在傑克森霍爾的演說內容,但這可能是觸發美股立即崩跌的潛在風險。他認為,市場近於一廂情願,相信鮑爾會做出溫和談話,但此一想法仍無法確定。
週五之前,多位聯準會官員表達了不願進一步降息的想法。堪薩斯分行總裁 Esther George、費城分行總裁 Patrick Harker、達拉斯分行總裁 Robert Kaplan 均偏向認為,應先觀察一段時間的變化,不需要馬上為經濟提供更多寬鬆。
Takada 表示,要是鮑爾的談話令人失望,那麼避險基金將再次逃離美股。
另一個需要關注的重點,是殖利率倒掛與美國製造業數據疲軟的影響。Takada 認為,如果殖利率曲線發生更深的倒掛,則可能會促使那些採取「買進抱牢」策略的中長期投資者,減少股票的曝險,並轉向債市,進一步加大股市的拋售。
3.心得/評論:
八月底還沒有到
就開始雷曼式拋售了嗎
我還有好多套牢的股票
--
Tags:
股票
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