辜朝明:怪!台灣人、企業都不借錢 - 股票

By Daph Bay
at 2017-09-03T14:55
at 2017-09-03T14:55
Table of Contents
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170824000053-260202
日本野村總合研究所首席經濟學家辜朝明昨指出,歐美央行量化寬鬆貨幣政策帶
來極低利率,台灣民間企業存款佔GDP比重自2008第4季至2017第1季的年平均達
12.71%,是世界各國第一高,也遠高於亞軍日本的8.57%,「台灣民眾、企業
不借錢,因為擔心未來、看不到前瞻」。
他建議,解決對策可由政府以自籌財務模式進行投資,拉動民間部門一起參與。
辜朝明昨天秀出一張比較表,其中包括台灣在內的14個經濟體,以「2008第3季之前的5年
」,「2008第4季至2017第1季」,以及「最近4個季度」三個不同時點分析,歐美等發達
國家的企業習慣於借款融資,在金融海嘯期間財務轉為保守,現金部位普遍上升,近一年
漸漸回到原有作法,只有台灣每項數值愈墊愈高,最近4個季度還進一步上升至12.75%。
「這實在太不正常」,辜朝明指出,20、30年前,央行降息肯定可以吸引資金需求端,央
行利率決策能夠影響經濟,現在民間部門不借錢、政府部門不敢借錢,貨幣量化寬鬆在台
灣沒有真正帶動投資,而是讓台灣股市跟著全球資金流入而上漲,央行決策的力量很小。
他強調,央行能左右經濟景氣的時代早過去了,現在「不借錢」的狀況更從金融機構向非
金融機構擴散,企業負債率近零,全球罕見。
辜朝明一直建議政府應透過擴大財政、加強投資,領頭拉動經濟活絡,也曾多次向台灣的
央行、財經部會提醒,「不要擔心財政失衡,台灣沒有歐美政府的赤字病症」。
他昨天再度強調,蔡政府提出的8,800億元前瞻計畫,增加政府支出是正確的方向,但需
附帶前提:政府要聰明花錢,原則一是前瞻建設的投資報酬率必須大於資金成本;原則二
是儘可能自行籌資(self-financing)、或接近自行籌資,也能邀請企業一起出資,企業
界能看到未來發展,民眾對經濟建設有信心,整個台灣才能往前走。
(工商時報)
--
日本野村總合研究所首席經濟學家辜朝明昨指出,歐美央行量化寬鬆貨幣政策帶
來極低利率,台灣民間企業存款佔GDP比重自2008第4季至2017第1季的年平均達
12.71%,是世界各國第一高,也遠高於亞軍日本的8.57%,「台灣民眾、企業
不借錢,因為擔心未來、看不到前瞻」。
他建議,解決對策可由政府以自籌財務模式進行投資,拉動民間部門一起參與。
辜朝明昨天秀出一張比較表,其中包括台灣在內的14個經濟體,以「2008第3季之前的5年
」,「2008第4季至2017第1季」,以及「最近4個季度」三個不同時點分析,歐美等發達
國家的企業習慣於借款融資,在金融海嘯期間財務轉為保守,現金部位普遍上升,近一年
漸漸回到原有作法,只有台灣每項數值愈墊愈高,最近4個季度還進一步上升至12.75%。
「這實在太不正常」,辜朝明指出,20、30年前,央行降息肯定可以吸引資金需求端,央
行利率決策能夠影響經濟,現在民間部門不借錢、政府部門不敢借錢,貨幣量化寬鬆在台
灣沒有真正帶動投資,而是讓台灣股市跟著全球資金流入而上漲,央行決策的力量很小。
他強調,央行能左右經濟景氣的時代早過去了,現在「不借錢」的狀況更從金融機構向非
金融機構擴散,企業負債率近零,全球罕見。
辜朝明一直建議政府應透過擴大財政、加強投資,領頭拉動經濟活絡,也曾多次向台灣的
央行、財經部會提醒,「不要擔心財政失衡,台灣沒有歐美政府的赤字病症」。
他昨天再度強調,蔡政府提出的8,800億元前瞻計畫,增加政府支出是正確的方向,但需
附帶前提:政府要聰明花錢,原則一是前瞻建設的投資報酬率必須大於資金成本;原則二
是儘可能自行籌資(self-financing)、或接近自行籌資,也能邀請企業一起出資,企業
界能看到未來發展,民眾對經濟建設有信心,整個台灣才能往前走。
(工商時報)
--
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