貿易戰讓中國股市跌27% 川普爽喊:效果超好 - 股票
By Agnes
at 2018-08-08T23:42
at 2018-08-08T23:42
Table of Contents
現在美中貿易戰一個就是搶錢大戰
然後美國要用不同方法來戳破中國泡沫並讓中國外銷的利潤下降
中國則要防止這現象持續出現並避免因為債務的滾雪球導致泡沫破裂
不過如果從中國外匯來分析
參考
https://goo.gl/rWXTA4
以下的單位都是美金,文中提到
1.2018月中國外匯 3.11兆,外債 1.84兆,短期外債0.7兆,然後金融機構主要放款對象都是到房地產
2.2018 6月,外商投資為0.596兆,目前估計外商的投資+利潤大約為1兆,因此實際可動用資金大約0.4兆,但扣除一些特殊情況可能只有約0.1兆可動用,不過還有些固定進口的
i.一年購買石油的量0.1623兆
ii.一年購買晶片的量為0.2601兆
所以美國透過
a.降低中國出口額度
b.抬高石油價格
c.抬高晶片價格
其實對中國的外匯都有殺傷力
但如果目前中國想要操作匯率
i.貶值可能會影響進口產品,也不能貶太多
ii.升值對國內壓力提升,幾乎不可行
外債到期不太可能不付,不然可能會因信用導致貨幣價值受到影響
感覺都不是很好處理的局面,不知大家看法如何
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Sony G8142.
--
然後美國要用不同方法來戳破中國泡沫並讓中國外銷的利潤下降
中國則要防止這現象持續出現並避免因為債務的滾雪球導致泡沫破裂
不過如果從中國外匯來分析
參考
https://goo.gl/rWXTA4
以下的單位都是美金,文中提到
1.2018月中國外匯 3.11兆,外債 1.84兆,短期外債0.7兆,然後金融機構主要放款對象都是到房地產
2.2018 6月,外商投資為0.596兆,目前估計外商的投資+利潤大約為1兆,因此實際可動用資金大約0.4兆,但扣除一些特殊情況可能只有約0.1兆可動用,不過還有些固定進口的
i.一年購買石油的量0.1623兆
ii.一年購買晶片的量為0.2601兆
所以美國透過
a.降低中國出口額度
b.抬高石油價格
c.抬高晶片價格
其實對中國的外匯都有殺傷力
但如果目前中國想要操作匯率
i.貶值可能會影響進口產品,也不能貶太多
ii.升值對國內壓力提升,幾乎不可行
外債到期不太可能不付,不然可能會因信用導致貨幣價值受到影響
感覺都不是很好處理的局面,不知大家看法如何
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Sony G8142.
--
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