谷月涵:台股流動性充沛 挑戰20,000點 - 股票

By Kyle
at 2021-02-09T11:12
at 2021-02-09T11:12
Table of Contents
原文標題:谷月涵:台股流動性充沛 挑戰20,000點
(請勿刪減原文標題)
原文連結:https://bit.ly/3tFg8Kp
(請善用 https://bit.ly/ 縮網址)
發布時間:2021-02-09 10:40
(請以原文網頁/報紙之發布時間為準)
原文內容:
台股2020年創歷史新高後,半年來漲到16,000點,「台灣先生」、寬量國際策略長谷月涵
接受CNBC採訪時指出,經驗來看,台股這波還沒漲到「頂」,若重演2000年及2007年的歷
史狀況,加權指數很可能漲到20,000點。他也提到,台積電(2330)是這波上漲最大動能
,目前台積電的基本面不錯,但股價會不會持續反映基本面或出現震盪,取決於市場力量
。
CBNC 8日上架谷月涵的專訪影片,首先提到,台股2020年創下萬點新紀錄後,半年又飛漲
到16,000點,未來還有沒有續漲力,是投資人最關切的議題。
對此谷月涵表示,若回顧歷史經驗,台股這波可能還沒漲到「頂」,因為當前流動性充沛
,非常像2000年及2007年的市場環境。假如歷史重演,加權指數可能漲到20,000點,且現
在還有台幣升值等利多帶動。
CNBC接著提問,過去台幣升值,對台灣電子業帶來匯損,這次會不會也成為拖累行情的因
素?谷月涵指出,過往台灣電子業確實對匯率很敏感,特別是下游PC、零組件等產業,短
期營運往往負面反應。
但他進一步指出,若拉長時間,台灣上游產業反而和台幣趨勢正向連動,例如半導體供應
鏈的表現會比較好,這類產業通常也投入龐大資本支出,提升技術競爭力。因此這次匯率
強勢表現,他不認為單方面造成衝擊。
提到半導體,CNBC追問,台積電顯然是這波上漲最大動能,在台股有很大的權重,未來還
能不能帶動台股,抑或拉回變成拖油瓶(drag)?
谷月涵表示,從台積電的基本面看,不論獲利趨勢、訂單能見度或出貨狀況,都在良好狀
態,少數要擔心是半導體需求強,可能出現重複下單。但這預期只有短期影響,象徵長期
動能的訂單和出貨數據正向發展,沒有太大疑慮。
不過他也補充,投資人對基本面樂觀是一回事,股價會不會這樣走,又是另一回事,照理
說,股價反映業績,應該持續漲,但市場變數多,還有投資人會不會繼續認為,台積電股
價應如實呈現基本面,或反映其他因素,都可能導致波動,讓股價高檔震盪。他本人不直
接預測台積電漲或跌。
心得/評論: ※必需填寫滿20字
谷大師說上看2萬
不用再猜牛年開市行情啦
你各位抱股過年的還有呼吸嗎
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